This week, I’m getting my beloved crystal ball out to tell you why I think a lot of the recession rumors out there right now are based more on sensationalism than actual data, and why I’m still positive about the direction of the economy and hence, the stock market. 

Today, I’m talking about everyone’s favorite topic - Trump! No matter how you feel about Trump, his twitter feed, for the last several months, he’s been putting on his Apprentice hat, and telling China “You’re Fired”.

You’re fired”

Oh geez...do you know how long I practiced that for. I think I threw a little too much Jersey in there. 

Ok, enough with that. What am I really talking about here? Trump and the trade negotiations with China. 

Here’s why I don’t think it matters all that much for the direction of the economy, and why you may want to dismiss most of the news hype around it…

Despite potential cost increases for the things that you buy that are made in China, according to the Tax Foundation, the nation’s leading independent tax policy nonprofit, “the tariffs planned and imposed so far by the Trump administration would reduce long-run GDP by 0.25 percent...If the Trump administration acts on threats to place new tariffs on automobiles and parts and additional tariffs on products from China, GDP would fall by an additional 0.32 percent.”

So just over a ½ % drop in our GDP, not exactly enough to push us into a recession or kill all of our jobs. Really, the trade war is much more about politics than it is about the overall economy, which is why it’s unlikely to have the predicted impact of your retirement portfolio that the news media claims it will have.  

That’s it for today. Thanks for listening! My name is Ashley Micciche and this is the One Minute Retirement Tip. 

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