Donald Trump recently announced a new round of tariffs including outrageous ones on Brazil that bring the effective tariff rate to 50%. Forget that we have a surplus with Brazil or that they’re one of the biggest economies in Latin America, one of our closest allies historically and the biggest democracy in South America. Trump’s upset that the Lula administration is targeting his friend Jair Bolsonaro, dubbed the “Trump of the Tropics.” Or so he claims. There’s a lot more to this ridiculous and misguided trade war than hurt feelings and bad economics. It’s about Brazil’s leadership of the BRICS+ alliance that threatens to undermine Trump’s plan to personally become the central banker to the world.

Resources

Jeffrey Group: Brasil June 6th, 2025

IMF: IMF Staff Completes 2025 Article IV Visit to Brazil

OECD: OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2025 Issue 1

Deloitte: Brazil economic outlook, March 2025

Al Jazeera: Trump’s hefty tariff on Brazil expected to push the country towards China

The Guardian - President Lula hits back as Trump tariffs threaten US-Brazil trade showdown

VoxDev: Understanding Brazil’s falling income inequality

PBS: Argentina secures IMF loan and ends most capital controls in key milestones for President Milei

MeidasTouch: Trump’s PANICKED MOVE delivers DEATHBLOW

Atlantic Council: The stablecoin race

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