Victor Snow has one catch through two games.

The coaching staff spent the preseason telling everybody he was a dog. Through two games he has been out-touched by a fourth string running back, he went out with the twos on the first play of the second half, and he muffed a punt.

Ethan's take, and he warned us he was going to be mean about it: this is exactly what NC State has always done at receiver. You rotate guys, and when it is your week it is your week. This week it was Keenan Jackson.

The number that frames everything else: NC State running backs forced 29 missed tackles against Richmond. Against Virginia it was four or five. Ethan supplies his own caveat immediately, which is that you are not forcing 29 missed tackles against Vanderbilt, and that is the whole question heading into Saturday.

His stat pack argument is that the offensive line is the most sustainable thing this team has. They created 2.86 offensive line yards per carry against Virginia, which is 80th percentile, and 3.7 against Richmond. That number does not care who is carrying it. On the other side, 359 yards after contact at 8.35 per run is not a repeatable thing against an SEC defense.

Also in here: the basketball schedule, where Ethan makes the case that NC State could walk into ACC play without a single Quad 1 win, and where Greg still cannot let go of the cancelled VCU game. Plus fall baseball, the Atlantis Collegiate Baseball Series in the Bahamas against Michigan, two four-star softball commits out of the Texas Bombers, and Garrett Bradbury and Joe Thuney lining up next to each other for the Bears.

4 days until NC State at Vanderbilt. Saturday, September 19, 12:45 PM ET.

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Two of the three of us are taking Richmond and the points.

The number is 32.5. Ethan took the Spiders, Greg took the Spiders, and Layton went the other way mostly so it would not be a clean sweep on our own team.

Ethan's framing is the one that stuck: this is not a quiz. This is classwork. Nobody remembers classwork. The quiz comes next week at Vanderbilt.

He is also honest that the offense cannot move the needle for him no matter what happens Friday, so he is watching the defense. His one exception: if CJ Bailey throws eight to ten passes of 20-plus air yards, that would be genuinely noteworthy, because he has not been willing to do it even against overmatched opponents.

Layton wants swagger back. Against Virginia you saw concern, nervousness and fear from almost everybody for the entire game, and the first thing he is looking for is CJ being CJ again.

Greg calls it the ultimate definition of a get right game.

The football conversation that matters: Doeren said NC State had to scheme receivers open against Virginia. That is not a formula that survives real competition, so the thing to watch is whether these guys can win one on one. Plus the tight end rotation, more than seven snaps for the young guy, and getting Davion Gause involved.

Also the ACC through one week. Florida State is who we thought they were, Cal got blown out by UCLA, Georgia Tech lost to Colorado, and Clemson looked as bad as anybody. Miami and Wake Forest were the most impressive, but Ethan makes the case that Syracuse moved the needle most relative to expectations with Steve Angeli back from the Achilles.

And the Wolfpack Warriors uniforms, the Army partnership, and the 25th anniversary of 9/11. Greg was active duty that day.

Kickoff is Friday, September 11 at 7:00 PM at Carter-Finley.

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CJ Bailey has taken four days of it. So the question worth asking is whether the criticism is justified.

During the game Layton tweeted that either Bailey was extremely overrated and playing terribly, or nobody was open. Four days and a lot of film breakdowns later, he has an answer. They were open. He just did not see them.

Ethan's answer is yes, the criticism is warranted, and he says he has been at the front of that line all offseason. His harsher version: this is the same quarterback he was as a freshman. Same happy feet. Same throws off the back foot from a clean pocket. Same trouble reading an RPO, including on the first play of the game.

But he also thinks the locker room is not taking this anywhere near as hard as the fanbase is, and that there is a good reason for that. They are kids. They are athletes. It is a season and you flush it.

The other side of that comes from Kai Crutchfield, the former NC State women's basketball player now at ACC Network, who pushed back on the Bailey criticism and pointed out how experienced Virginia's defense is. Ethan's response is that her perspective is noteworthy precisely because it is how athletes look at it.

Plus the thing that will surprise people: Ethan thinks the offensive line was the best unit NC State had on the field. He also argues the defense is nearly impossible to evaluate from this game, because two turnovers handed Virginia short fields and 31 points instead of 34 would not have been a crazy number.

Where they land: if Beau Pribula has to throw the ball 25 or 30 times, Virginia is in trouble. NC State never made them do it.

Also in here: the Doeren losses that would have gotten him fired, why Richmond has nothing to gain and Vanderbilt is the real test, and why Ethan does not think NC State's administration sees this the way the fanbase does.

8 days until Richmond. Friday, September 11, 7:00 PM at Carter-Finley.

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Doeren said at halftime that the wide receivers needed to get open.

Ethan's answer: the wide receivers who do get open, you let them walk. You told The Athletic last week that you picked the offensive line over them. And we all know you picked CJ Bailey over them.

That exchange is the show. Virginia 34, NC State 8, and we spent 85 minutes on how it happened.

The argument worth staying for is the one about roster construction. Ethan's case is that Virginia put together a masterclass and NC State looked like a team that overpaid its quarterback and lost every piece around him. Virginia decided they did not care who played quarterback, took a running quarterback, built a very good offensive line and a very good defense, and took four to five yards a carry all afternoon. His line: they got smoked in the front office.

The follow-up is the uncomfortable one. If the number really was three to four million for Bailey, would you rather have paid seven fifty to a million at quarterback and put the other two and a half million on defense? And his point is not that you paid a quarterback, it is which quarterback you paid, because last year the receivers were elevating Bailey and now those receivers are gone.

Also in here: why Virginia never faced a third and long, how a long fourth-quarter-style drive with four fourth down conversions took the life out of the building, Harvey Dyson getting only eight pass rushing snaps, Popo Aguirre's 18 tackles that did not matter, and the NFL roster cuts including two undrafted Wolfpack who made 53-man rosters.

Where we landed: Layton came down from 10-2 to 8-4. Greg is staying at 9-3. Ethan never moved off 8-4.

10 days until Richmond. Friday, September 11, 7:00 PM at Carter-Finley.

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Eric Mac Lain from the ACC Network joined us to preview NC State at Virginia, and he picked the Cavaliers.

But the part worth staying for is what he said about Dave Doeren. Asked about the fans who want a change, a national voice with no stake in it said what a lot of Wolfpack fans will not: you have had double digit wins once, ever, he is the best coach you have ever had, so why are you trying to get rid of him?

His score is 24-21 Virginia, though he also thinks that if CJ Bailey is feeling it this could be a Wolfpack blowout, and that there is no middle outcome he can picture.

He says the biggest thing NC State did all offseason had nothing to do with the transfer portal. It was keeping Bailey home, and how Bailey said it.

Plus why Virginia's offensive line is the best in the ACC on paper, why he would force Beau Pribula to beat him with his arm, what Cam Robinson coming back changes, which coordinator battle he is watching, and the thing fans miss most when they watch offensive line play, from a man who was All-ACC at it.

Mac Lain is a studio analyst on The Huddle, a former Clemson offensive lineman who holds the record for most wins by a single player in Clemson history, and a Hope Mills, North Carolina native. He will be in Charlottesville on Saturday with The Huddle crew, live at 10 AM out on the hill.

3 days until NC State at Virginia.

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Three of us went on the record before the season and came out with three different numbers. Layton has NC State at 10-2. Greg has them 9-3. Ethan has them 8-4. And Greg is the only one of the three who does not have the Wolfpack losing at Virginia on Saturday.

His reasoning on Vanderbilt is the part worth hearing. By his count NC State is 1-6 all time against SEC opponents under Dave Doeren, and the only win came against Vanderbilt in a bowl game. He also reports the Vanderbilt return game has come off the future schedule, which has not been reported anywhere else.

Ethan's Stat Pack argues last year's Virginia game was CJ Bailey's best in two seasons. 16 of 23 for 200 yards, a touchdown, no interceptions, 8.7 yards per attempt against a top 20 defense. And the number nobody remembers: Virginia converted 13 of 19 third downs, NC State converted 1 of 7, and the Wolfpack won anyway.

Plus KaTron Evans and what the court order actually says, the new targeting rule, why the Baha Mar Hoops draw is a disappointment, women's soccer at 4-0 for the first time since 2013, and Christina Koch getting an engineering building named after her.

4 days until NC State at Virginia. Our full preview episode drops in the next couple of days.

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Layton has NC State going 10-2 this season. Ethan has them 8-4. And both of them circled the exact same game as the loss, which is not UNC and not Florida State.

It is Duke, on November 7th. Ethan's case is that the Blue Devils have been a boogeyman for NC State across three different coaching staffs, and that even a depleted Duke roster finds ways to cause problems.

That Duke roster is depleted for a reason worth understanding. Darian Mensah led them to their first outright ACC championship since 1962, announced he was coming back, then reversed course in January. Duke sued to enforce a two-year eight million dollar contract, got a restraining order, and settled a week later. Miami reportedly spent around ten million to land him and took his best receiver with him. The money was gone by the time he was.

The other split is Florida State, where Layton leans on the fact that the Seminoles are 6-13 against the spread at home over three seasons, and Ethan counters that a team firing its coach mid-season is not a free win.

Plus a 10:30 Eastern kickoff at Stanford where the team lands back in Raleigh at seven in the morning, a Halloween matchup with Cal featuring two of the ACC's best quarterbacks, and why the care level in the NC State and UNC rivalry has gone completely one way.

Part 1 covered the first six games. Go back and listen to that one first.

6 days until NC State at Virginia.

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Two people went through the first six games of NC State's schedule and disagreed on exactly one of them. It is not Virginia and it is not Louisville.

Ethan calls the Louisville game the biggest fifty-fifty on the entire schedule and we both took the win anyway. The one that split us was Vanderbilt, where Diego Pavia and Eli Stowers are both gone and it is still not settled whether five-star freshman Jared Curtis takes the first snap. Ethan's comparison is driving down to Clemson years ago for Trevor Lawrence's first start, expecting the defense to give him problems, and watching him be great regardless.

Neither of us picked NC State to win at Virginia. Ethan's case is that the Cavaliers quietly built a top 25 defense down the stretch last season and that NC State has not covered a Week 1 spread since 2021. Layton's case is simpler: Virginia is loaded with seniors, and experience wins early. Beau Pribula takes over at quarterback after starting ten games at Missouri, where he went 7-3 and completed 67.4 percent, third best in the SEC.

We also get into why Louisville is the toughest home game on the schedule with an 8.5 win total and Jeff Brohm sitting at 28-12, and why Ethan thinks Wake Forest's nine-win season last year was as fluky as you will ever see, even with Gio Lopez reuniting with his old South Alabama coordinator.

Final tally through six: Layton has NC State 5-1, Ethan has them 4-2.

Part 2 covers the back half of the schedule, including the UNC game and the final record.

7 days until NC State at Virginia.

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The Technician ran a piece headlined "don't let the Doeren hit you on the way out," twelve days before the season starts. Sub .500 in conference, no ACC Championship appearances, a losing bowl record.

Here is what that argument leaves out. Dave Doeren inherited a 2013 roster that gave up 35 points in a single quarter to Florida State. Take those eight losses off his record and he goes from a .48 coach to a .52 coach. And NC State has won ten games once in its entire history, with Philip Rivers and four non-conference cupcakes to do it.

Then the good news. Ven-Allen Lubin is back for a fifth year, and he did it by turning down Oklahoma and Will Wade at LSU. Wade said at his introductory press conference that he would find fifteen players in the portal. He is at four, and the two he chased hardest, Paul McNeil and Lubin, both said no while NC State was almost certainly not the highest bidder.

Ethan's Stat Pack digs into what Lubin actually needs to improve, which is not the offense. Torvik has NC State 26th nationally and fifth in the ACC, behind Duke, Virginia, Louisville and Miami, and that is before any step forward on defense.

Plus why the Wolfpack is a five and a half point underdog at Virginia, the new Fort Bragg partnership and the Wolfpack Warriors uniforms for the September 11 home opener, Jamel Johnson returning at corner, and a men's soccer team that might be the best program on campus.

11 days until NC State at Virginia.

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NC State has not had a 1,000 yard rusher since Reggie Gallaspy went for 1,091 in 2018. Duke Scott takes over the backfield this season, and Ethan and I could not disagree more about whether he gets there.

We ran seven season-long over/unders on this team and took opposite sides on the first three: CJ Bailey's passing yards, his touchdown total, and Scott at 1,000.

Then Ethan found the number that should worry you. NC State finished plus three in turnover margin last season, but recovered 14 of the 20 fumbles that hit the ground in their games. Seventy percent. His argument is that recovering fumbles is not a skill, it is luck, and that regresses toward 50, which flips the margin the other way.

Plus why Will Wilson has quietly taken every short yardage carry, and which receiver leads this rebuilt room in yards.

14 days until NC State at Virginia.

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