Two Blokes Trading

This is the last podcast of the year & the Blokes discuss how 2023 has been a great year for traders.

2024 has a lot to live up too after a really strong year, seeing so many opportunities throughout the markets.

Tech Stocks have seen some great gains with the biggest winner in the S&P being Nvidia, seeing a 230% gain. This is a result of the current AI boom! Jonathan believes AMD could be one to watch in 2024, with the release of its newest chip.

Across currencies we saw some good volatility & directional moves. We also had some big moves in Oil & Gold with the former hitting all time highs, briefly!

As we close in on the end of 2023 the volatility is slowly winding down & the blokes suggest everyone to take a break & come back in 2024 refreshed!

We would like to thank all of our loyal listeners & wish you all a very happy holiday.

In this podcast Jonathan & Adam scan the markets, with the current theme being the trend is your friend!

This morning the markets were thin after thanksgiving on Friday, but we did see a slight pickup as the day went on. Markets are currently directional which is great for traders, the DXY remains bearish & stocks are soaring with market sentiment firmly risk on, as we approach the Christmas period.

Jonathan discusses how over the early years of his trading journey he let his bias dictate his decision making, regardless of the trend & even went through a period of counter trend trading. In recent years he has found his success rate increase when he aligns his bias with the trend. This lessens the amount of trading opportunities but has substantially increased the success rate of his trades.

Adam goes on to discuss how he feels there maybe a short term market shift about to happen as he believes the markets are currently overextended & we may see some cooling off, this might be the time to reassess the shorter term direction. However Adam feels that 2024 will be a strong year with Tech & AI growing rapidly. Adam also believes that global economies will recover next year & we may see a strong pick up, however Jonathan disagrees & feels it will take more time to fully recover.

The blokes go on to discuss the impact rising interest rates have had on the markets, plus how the world is adapting to a new way of life in this faced paced environment. 

The blokes move on to scan the markets looking at US Indices which are currently flying, with most of the blue chip companies taking advantage of the Santa rally. Jonathan goes on to give his opinion on Oil & Gold with the latter reaching 6 month highs. The blokes then look at some USD pairs with most markets taking advantage of Dollar weakness.

To conclude the episode, Adam shares his hot tips on the market, which are Disney & ASML, whereas Jonathan feels Nvidia has further to go due to It’s domination of the AI chip market, which is expected to grow by 38% annually for the next decade, almost ensuring continued upside for Nvidia.

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Jonathan and Rory talk though the importance the economic calendar for all traders. A lot of traders believe that certain data doesn’t move the markets enough and that they should ignore it. But using this information to your advantage can give you a trading edge.

The economic Calendar provides real-time updates on economic news and trends, allowing individuals to make more informed investment decisions.

This information gives you a macro outlook, allowing you to a receive an insight into key data such as GDP, Inflation, Unemployment, international relations & political changes.

During the episode, Rory & Jonathan share how they use the data not just for volatility trading but to confirm or deny pre-existing biases we may have. For example, if you think the economy is struggling and the PMI report is growing each time, the market might not move but maybe you should change your bias? It’s about using the data in your favour to add further confirmations which will in turn help your consistency.

The Blokes then discuss the PCE index, which is released next week, what it means and the importance of it to traders. Rory mentions how the PCE is the Fed’s preferred method to gauge inflation along with describing exactly how it’s calculated.

If you really want to improve your trading, then you need to use all the resources at your disposal to build a bias whether that bullish or bearish.

Listen now to find out more!

One of the main talking points over the weekend was the production cuts from OPEC. It’s looking possible that over 1 million barrels per day could be cut from supply as fear enters the market that demand could be drying up.

We have already seen on Monday that price is up nearly 3% towards $78 and speculation is that it will continue towards 80.

DXY continues the move lower today as more negativity creeps in. There seems to be a strong risk on appetite in markets and with implied interest rates moving lower, strength in USD is fading as a break of 103 looks likely.

Other FX crosses seem to be taking advantage of this with USDJPY moving towards 148, USDCAD holding on the trend line and USDNOK moving lower from the higher oil prices (NOK benefiting)

Gold continues to move sideways unable to take advantage of a weaker dollar. Jonathan still holds his thoughts of selling gold at 2000 and narrowly missed a great shirt at price rallied above 1990.

Indices within the UK remain subdued as weaker oil prices impact the FTSE100 constituents. US indices continue moving higher with the NASDAQ pushing higher towards 16,000.

With the macro picture still not looking all positive but a soft landing looking more likely, how will you be positioned going into the remainder of 2023?

In this podcast , Jonathan and Rory discuss how to trade news headlines. The key is to understand the impact & domino effect these headlines can have on companies & markets. 

Immersing yourself within the financial markets is key to construct your trade and investment ideas. The example Rory covers, is around Maersk letting go 10,000 workers. We ask, if they are seeing less demand what does this mean for other stocks in the sector? What does this mean for the market, the economy and global trade?

We also talk about inflation and deflation problems in China and Japan. How the weak JPY is causing high inflation and how the strong CNY is causing deflation due to imports becoming cheaper. This also means exports are dropping which isn’t helping things as China received another huge stimulus pump earlier this week.

Jonathan also talks us through the many opportunities that have been in markets this year as we draw to a close. With so many moves in dollar, Jonathan talks us through how he was long dollar from July based off his bias that the fed were not going to cut interest rates earlier this year. Both Jonathan and Rory explain that the cuts in monetary policy there were due around this time, were pushed back so far that it was taken hawkish by traders hence the strong run higher in US Dollar/DXY.

Understanding how macroeconomics shape markets is essential to understanding trading and the Two Blokes Trading app is the best place to start.

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In this weeks episode, Jonathan & Adam scan the markets & explain why you should hold fire amid uncertainty.

Monday has been a quite day & the blokes explain the importance of waiting for the right time to execute with Dollar currently consolidating.

Later in the week we have some high impact data coming out with US CPI & PPI & we should see a spike in volatility. This should offer some further insight into the longer term direction of markets.

Jonathan discusses his perspective on the markets, particularly USD/JPY of which he shared a trade in the APP earlier in the day which played out nicely, seeing a short spike in volatility.

A weak JPY has become a political issue for the government amid rising cost-of-living pressures. Unless BOJ intervene we could see a bullish move to the upside, but the blokes both agree it's likely that they will! 

Adam then offers his technical viewpoint on the markets across FX pairs & Gold with his current bias being further Dollar weakness, but there remains uncertainty in the markets & we should have a clearer picture later in the week.

Adam then offers his opinion across Tech stocks & remains bullish on semi conductors firms such as AMD & Nvidia with his pick being ASML Holdings.

The blokes share their market analysis & trade ideas on the Two Blokes Trading APP everyday, so don’t miss out!

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In this episode the Blokes discuss the pros & cons of limit orders.  Jonathan and Rory both discuss how & when they use limit orders in different situations.

Both Jonathan and Rory highlight that the advantages usually heavily outweigh the disadvantages. It allows you to target a specific target price & have that order waiting to execute even while away from the computer, meaning you will never miss an entry. Most part-time retail traders can’t sit in front of a screen 24/7, so by placing limit orders it allows traders to semi automate the process.  

Rory explains that the only slight disadvantage is in highly volatile markets where the trade can be executed and hit a stop loss in a matter of seconds however, chances of that are very slim out of the covid cycle.

Jonathan explains using limit orders correctly can allow you to find optimal entry levels rather than executing a trade at the wrong time. Also limit orders can be highly beneficial when price is trading within a range. For example, If an asset has a strong range and is continuously finding support and resistance at the same levels, orders can help remove any doubts.

Similarly both Jonathan and Rory agree that on larger one off trades, limit orders are useful for not missing a big move in the market. For example; recently when Gold hit 1800, before it was there, a lot of people would have thought it was a great level to buy. However, when price reached 1800, people were afraid to buy, having this order in place would have removed any psychological doubts & this will help you trade more objectively.

There is no doubt that if used correctly limit orders can improve your success rate & limit your screen time!

Make sure to join the app today where Adam, Jonathan and Rory give their daily rundowns of markets and analysis and join over 1500 people in one of the fastest trading communities.

Check out the FREE Two Blokes Trading Community for education, analysis & much more!

Is the Santa rally on its way or is this just an overreaction to some bad news that investors think is good news?

For a long time now, the narrative of “bad data = good news” has allowed equity markets to rally. However, Rory shares in the app and talks about it on todays podcast that over 75% of major data last week was negative. yet the market takes it as a positive.

While that may mean the Fed are not going to hike as much if at all, it does mean there is a deterioration within the economy and it’s why Rory says he is exercising caution within the equity space right now.

Jonathan discusses the increase in volatility throughout the markets, most notably the fall of the Dollar & the rise of stocks has changed the perspective for now & it’s time to reassess.

This week is quite on economic front, with the exception of Powell's speech, which may allow the markets to digest last weeks data & offer a clearer picture for the longer term direction of the markets.   

Jonathan shares his thoughts around the USD and notes that many dollar pairs such as GBP and EUR are all moving higher and taking advantage of this recent dollar weakness. We will have to wait until next weeks CPI report for further clarification of dollar positioning.

Speaking of taking advantage of dollar weakness, Gold failed to do so, still hovering shy of $2000 not able to break higher despite the sell off in USD. Both Jonathan and Rory agree that if gold can’t move higher now, what will make it move higher? It perhaps doesn’t look as attractive as other trades such as FX or the fixed income space.

Crude oil rose to nearly $83 on Monday morning trading but remains under pressure despite Saudi Arabia confirming an extension of its 1 million barrels per day additional voluntary production cut until the end of December, while Russia said it would continue with its additional voluntary supply cut of 300,000 bpd from its crude exports as well.

Finally, we have another busy week of earnings. Rory has shared the economic calendar and earnings calendar within the app, along with Jonathan and Adam, who are posting their daily analysis on the markets.

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Rory takes a USDJPY short just before the podcast begins, but will USD/JPY tank? He explains the reasoning behind this move as well as the strong risk to reward that is favoured. Jonathan is holding off until we see 152 hit but will it be too late?

The question is will Bank Of Japan intervene after removing a pledge to defend the level with offers to buy unlimited amounts of bonds.

This week in the markets is Jam-packed with Data, Earnings, and everything in between. With ISM, PMI Services, NFP, FOMC, BoE and more. There is sure to be a further increase in volatility.

One of the biggest stock winners so far is Amazon after earnings were released better than expected with the share price jumping 11% as the outlook seems better than initially expected. The last time the stock has had such a two day stretch was a 17% rally from November 11, 2022.

The blokes look over other markets with Rory saying he is now short on Oil but would rather not be involved. There’s so many factors that could go against this such as the War in the middle east and the potential of OPEC supply, none of this can be confirmed or quantified and therefore, for now, both of the blokes agree they would rather rule it out. Data from China the US and EU also isn’t highly supportive of stronger economic conditions therefore demand for Oil may not be as strong as initially predicted.

Gold has found resistance at the $2000 level after a strong run higher. Jonathan explains how the major zone of 1800/2000 looks to be in play for quite some time and its likely with a stronger dollar, Gold will remain under pressure, unless of course we see any escalations in middle east.

DXY saw strong support last week from 105.50 and today at 106.00 to continue the push higher towards 107. Jonathan reiterates his long bias on USD & has been taking advantage of the cross pairs as a result. Jonathan also says with a lot of data due this week, there could be the potential for a lot of volatility and higher USD.

With lots of earnings this week from McDonalds, Pfizer, PayPal, Apple, Shopify and many more, it’s going to be an interesting week!

Join us live in the APP as we cover NFP this Friday!

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In this episode Jonathan and Rory continue to evaluate the risks from the Middle East & the uncertainty in the financial markets. Also looking at higher yields and central bank action from around the globe.

The war in the Middle East is still raging and shows no sign of stopping.  In the podcast Rory mentions the risk of other countries such as Iran getting involved and the potential catalysts that could being to the table.

The ECB are expected to hold rates this week however the door is open in the future for hikes as higher oil prices Continue to drive prices higher says Christine Lagarde and the ECB are cautions of this.

The US markets snapped a strong losing streak after better than expected earnings from Microsoft and Google. Google was down due to their cloud revenue being lower than forecast.

Higher yields in the US and across the EU/GB have punished stocks in recent days with the US S&P500 breaching the 4200 support level.  Hedge fund manager, Bill Ackman announced he was covering his short bond positions and now is looking to go long bonds as these attractive yields.

The Fed are almost certain not to hike rates next week however the door may be open in December as Jerome Powell is watching yields with caution.

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