Ukraine War Briefings with Jason Jay Smart

On the night of November 1–2, 2025, Russia’s war system broke across three fronts simultaneously. Tuapse’s oil terminal, where refined fuel becomes export revenue, erupted in flames, taking the shadow-fleet tanker CHAI with it. Hours later, Port Kavkaz ignited near the Kerch Strait, choking Crimea’s supply artery. Inland, power substations at Gryazi and Zheleznogorsk collapsed, cutting 4.5 GW, enough to darken three million homes and stall the rail network feeding the front.

The dollar figure does not matter. What matters is the loop: when exports stop, trains stall. When trains stall, shells do not reach the front. When shells do not arrive, soldiers refuse suicidal orders. This is how systems collapse, not from one big hit, but from synchronized pressure that breaks the connections holding everything together.

This is the smuta Putin fears most, not NATO weapons, but the moment his own system stops believing in itself. Jason Smart, blacklisted by the Kremlin for exposing regime fractures, traces the mechanism of failure: oil terminal fires that freeze cash flow, grid strikes that halt transport, and a battlefield morale collapse that no propaganda can repair.

Censors now threaten citizens for filming the fires. State TV stages submarine launches and “reconstruction” shows in occupied Mariupol, where reports suggest plans to reopen the Drama Theater, the same site of the 2022 mass-casualty strike, to project control. But pageantry does not refuel tankers or restore power.

Watch the tanker queues off Tuapse, the grid reroutes around Gryazi, and the rotation delays near Pokrovsk. When those timelines stretch together, the system is not just damaged, it is breaking in real time.

CHAPTERS:

00:00 - Intro

01:02 - The Strategic Attack on Tuapse Port: Russia's Fuel Nightmare

03:45 - The Shadow Fleet is Burning: Ukraine Enforces “Sanctions”

05:20 - Kerch Chokepoint Tightens: Coordinated Port Attacks

06:31 - Russia's Power Grid Collapses: Military Impact of Blackouts

08:13 - Russian Soldiers Desert & Partisan Attacks Hit Fuel Trains

11:01 - New Drone Fundraiser: Double Your Impact

12:08 - The Economic Squeeze: Why Russia is Losing the War

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Dr. Jason Jay Smart, also known as Jason Smart and Jason J Smart, is a political adviser who has lived and worked in Ukraine, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Latin America. In 2010, he was banned for life by the Kremlin for supporting Russia’s democratic opposition to Vladimir Putin.

A strategic strike has PARALYZED Moscow's military logistics. Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence (GUR) confirms a successful operation on October 31st disabled all three lines of the 400-kilometer Koltsevoy (Ring) oil products pipeline, the main fuel artery for the Russian capital.This is not a tactical probe; it is a strategic strangulation. The GUR reports this single pipeline is responsible for transporting up to 3 million tonnes of jet fuel annually, a figure estimated to be 25-30% of Russia’s entire national production. It also carries 2.8 million tonnes of diesel and 1.6 million tonnes of gasoline, feeding Moscow’s military airfields, armored units, and army logistics. This strike, targeting the Ramensky district, was a direct hit on the logistical heart of the Russian military, fed by the Ryazan and NORSI refineries.The impact is immediate and systemic. This operation, which follows a campaign that has already knocked 37% of Russian refining capacity offline, forces Russia to move 7.4 million tonnes of fuel onto its vulnerable and inefficient rail system. This creates a cascading logistical failure. The Kremlin is now forced into an impossible dilemma: pull scarce air defense systems from the front to protect railways in the rear, or let the fuel shortages cripple its war machine. The strike on the Koltsevoy pipeline is a significant blow to the Russian war economy, which funds the invasion.This operation is part of a wider, sustained campaign that includes strikes on munitions plants like Plastmass (1,800km from the border) and the Bryansk Chemical Plant. The war is no longer just at the front; it is inside Moscow's ring. We are now monitoring rail traffic and watching for visible fuel shortages in the capital.For more fact-driven analysis of geopolitical strategy and the fight for freedom, join our community and follow the truth. Watch next: How Putin's regime is scrambling to cover this catastrophic failure.CHAPTERS:0:00 – Moscow’s War Machine Stalls1:45 – The Artery That Fed the War3:25 – Fuel Is Movement5:00 – Strategic Catastrophe for the Kremlin6:40 – Russia’s Economy on Fumes8:30 – Nationwide Fuel Crisis10:10 – Ukraine’s Expanding Drone Offensive12:05 – Russia’s Industrial Implosion13:30 – Strategic Precision: Ukraine’s Smart Targeting14:45 – Collapse of Putin’s Stability Myth15:55 – Ukraine Turns the Tide👏 Become a Channel Member: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC1txJ3q_-g_vhOeIwYOKEeQ/join⚡⚡Connect with Jason for real-time analysis & verified updates: Substack: https://jasonjaysmart.substack.comSpotify: https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/jason-jay-smartTiktok: https://www.tiktok.com/@jasonjsmart X (Twitter): https://x.com/OfficeJJSmart Facebook Personal: https://Facebook.com/JasonJaySmart Facebook Professional: https://Facebook.com/OfficeJJSmart LinkedIn: https://Linkedin.com/in/JasonJaySmart Mastodon: https://defenseofliberty.social/@OfficeJJSmart BlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/JJSmart.bsky.social YouTube: https://YouTube.com/@JasonJaySmart Website: https://JasonJaySmart.com.Dr. Jason Jay Smart, also known as Jason Smart and Jason J Smart, is a political adviser who has lived and worked in Ukraine, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Latin America. In 2010, he was banned for life by the Kremlin for supporting Russia’s democratic opposition to Vladimir Putin.#ukraine #russiacollapse #putin #dronewarfare #moscow #energywar #jasonsmart

Russia’s war economy is cracking under the weight of Ukraine’s precision strikes. Since January 2025, Ukrainian forces have attempted over 160 strikes on Russian oil, gas, and power facilities. Analysts estimate these attacks have shut down roughly one-fifth of Russia’s refining capacity, about 1 million barrels per day, and created fuel shortages across more than 20 regions. Crimea has rationed drivers to 30 liters of fuel, and Belarus is shipping emergency supplies to cover the gap.

Airports in eight Russian cities were forced to close during mass-drone alerts. The Ust-Luga Baltic export terminal faces months of repairs, cutting jet-fuel and naphtha exports. Major refineries in Ryazan and Novokuybyshevsk are operating at around half capacity. Rolling blackouts continue in Belgorod, Bryansk, Voronezh, Volgograd, and Smolensk after hits on key substations.

Every outage drains manpower and money from the front. Engineers and air-defense crews are pulled out to guard the rear, while the central bank prints billions of rubles to fund emergency repairs. Defense and security now account for about 40 % of the federal budget. GDP growth has slowed toward 1 % and inflation is ticking up.

“Russia is borrowing tomorrow to keep yesterday’s lights on.” This energy crisis is not symbolic. It is dismantling Moscow’s military power one refinery, one terminal, one blackout at a time.

CHAPTERS:

00:00 - Intro

01:07 - Russia is Losing: Why Ukraine's Optimism is Growing

02:38 - Moscow's Dark Winter: Power Grid Under Threat

04:18 - Russia's Military Logistics Crisis: No Jet Fuel, No Flights

06:56 - Manpower Drain & Economic Collapse: Russia's Debt Crisis

11:11 - Fuel Scarcities, Logistics Breakdown: Russia's Frontline Suffers

13:06 - The Winning Strategy: Why Ukraine Will Eject Russia

13:48 - New Drone Fundraiser: Double Your Impact

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Dr. Jason Jay Smart, also known as Jason Smart and Jason J Smart, is a political adviser who has lived and worked in Ukraine, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Latin America. In 2010, he was banned for life by the Kremlin for supporting Russia’s democratic opposition to Vladimir Putin.

Russia's power structure is collapsing into open warfare between its own enforcers. Ramzan Kadyrov’s public feud with a top general proves the Kremlin can no longer referee its competing factions, exposing a critical fracture in the regime.

The FSB, military, Rosgvardia, and Kadyrov’s Chechen forces are locked in a quiet struggle for control. Kadyrov is building 'Akhmat Rossiya,' a 1,500-man private army, signaling preparations for a post-Putin Chechnya as his health reportedly fails. This decay is systemic. Rosgvardia, crippled by multi-million dollar corruption scandals, is forcing its unprepared rear units to the front lines to replace exhausted army troops.

This infighting has paralyzed Russia's war machine. The FSB and Ministry of Defense trade blame for the constant drone strikes shutting down Moscow's airspace. While they fight, Ukrainian precision strikes have destroyed vital S-400 and Nebo-U radar systems in Crimea, blinding Russian forces. Railway sabotage in Tokmak and Chernihivka has derailed supply trains, exposing gaps that no single agency can coordinate to repair. The regime is too divided to defend itself.

The critical metric to watch is no longer just the front line; it is the regime's internal loyalty. Watch the economic collapse as Greek shippers halt Russian oil exports and Indian refiners cancel contracts. With domestic mortgage rates nearing 30 percent, the factions are fighting over a rapidly shrinking pie.

This channel provides fact-driven analysis of the forces breaking the Russian regime from within. Subscribe for continued insights into the strategic reality of the war.

CHAPTERS:

00:00 - Intro

00:58 - Moscow is Unsafe: Drones and the Split Kremlin

02:20 - The West's Blind Spot: Russian Collapse is Real

02:57 - The Battle for Pokrovsk: Why Russia is Desperate

03:57 - Kadyrov's Betrayal: Loyalty for Putin is Fading

05:36 - The Wagner Mutiny Lesson: Chechens Choose Self-Interest

08:30 Russia is Failing: Partisan Attacks and Internal Conflict

13:37 - New Drone Fundraiser: Double Your Impact

15:00 - Civil War Signs: Putin's Regime at its Weakest

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Dr. Jason Jay Smart, also known as Jason Smart and Jason J Smart, is a political adviser who has lived and worked in Ukraine, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Latin America. In 2010, he was banned for life by the Kremlin for supporting Russia’s democratic opposition to Vladimir Putin.

Ukraine’s $500 FPV drones are dismantling Russian operations across Donetsk Oblast, delivering a shocking blow to Moscow's logistical and armored capabilities. Jason Jay Smart’s exclusive frontline report details how cheap precision warfare is fundamentally changing the conflict, revealing the stark imbalance between drone cost and the destruction of multi-million dollar Russian assets.

This report captures the direct impact of 110 FPV drones delivered to Ukraine's elite 501st Marine Battalion. These operators now establish continuous interdiction belts near Pokrovsk, Dobropillia, Kurakhove, and along the Bakhmut axis. The video shows frontline teams systematically disabling Russian armor and transport on roads previously considered safe, illustrating why Russian daylight convoys are rapidly shrinking across Donbas.

The footage reveals Ukraine’s ingenious repair pipelines and rigorous training cycles that ensure constant drone aerial presence. It demonstrates precise target prioritization and critical artillery coordination, detailing how damaged Russian assets are finished with lethal efficiency. This coverage also examines the role of electronic countermeasures, forcing Russia to drastically slow its operational tempo and exposing severe vulnerabilities in Russian military logistics.

The current situation on the Donetsk front is defined by this sustained drone pressure. Russian forces face layered threats, with recovery crews operating under continuous interdiction. This new era of cheap precision has reshaped battlefield tempo, defining the cost imbalance that now governs modern warfare and impacting every aspect of ground operations from supply routes to troop movements.

CHAPTERS:

00:00 - Intro

01:05 - Journalist Frontline: Return from The Intense Donbass Fight

01:53 - Russia's Suicide Tactics: Counting The Meat Assault Casualties

03:08 - Grand Strategy: Destroying Russia’s Capacity to Wage War

05:09 - Next-Gen Drones: The German-Ukrainian Edge Dominating The War

07:39 - The Drone Revolution: Why Russia's Attrition War Failed

10:52 - The Axis of War: Countries Secretly Aiding Russia

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Dr. Jason Jay Smart, also known as Jason Smart and Jason J Smart, is a political adviser who has lived and worked in Ukraine, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Latin America. In 2010, he was banned for life by the Kremlin for supporting Russia’s democratic opposition to Vladimir Putin.

Moscow is fortifying against its own reflection. Air defense batteries and Rosgvardia armor now protect power, not borders, showing a regime bracing for internal shock. Elites are voting with their feet and their capital. Reports show massive wealth transfers abroad, tightened security around Valdai, and new prosecutions targeting exiled opposition figures. That is what panic looks like inside an autocracy: defenses turning inward, markets sliding, and loyalty being priced.

Here is the strategic read. The economy is fracturing as capital flight widens the fiscal hole, leaving the Kremlin unable to fund both war and repression. The power vertical is weakening as oligarchs and insiders diversify away from Moscow. On the battlefield, Ukraine’s precision strikes are increasing the cost of loyalty. These forces converge on one outcome: political instability at the core of Putin’s system.

This channel tracks indicators, not rumors. When money moves, security hardens, and prosecutions rise together, it means the Kremlin is spending its limited focus suppressing insiders instead of confronting Ukraine or NATO. That shift creates opportunity. In this episode, we expose the financial drain, the new defensive lines around Valdai, and the fractures splitting Putin’s inner circle. We will also break down what Kyiv and the West must do next: close sanctions loopholes, expand long-range strike capabilities, and maintain relentless pressure on Russia’s war machine.

If you value verified analysis over propaganda, subscribe and share. Facts win wars.

CHAPTERS:

00:00 - Intro

01:01 - Kremlin's Top-Down Power & War Decisions

02:06 - Why Putin Needs the War to Continue

03:12 Who is the Real Enemy Inside the Kremlin?

03:40 - Air Defense Rings and Putin's Fearful Orders

05:12 Russia's Budget Collapse & Currency Crisis

08:07 Historical Coups & The Weak Lion King

11:30 Financial Distress & The Path to Regime Defeat

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Dr. Jason Jay Smart, also known as Jason Smart and Jason J Smart, is a political adviser who has lived and worked in Ukraine, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Latin America. In 2010, he was banned for life by the Kremlin for supporting Russia’s democratic opposition to Vladimir Putin.

The truth about Russia’s economy is a $446 billion fraud. This investigation exposes the secret off-budget debt Vladimir Putin uses to finance his war and reveals why that illusion is collapsing fast.

Since mid-2022, Russia’s corporate borrowing has surged by seventy-one percent. The Central Bank of Russia quietly recorded roughly $446 billion in forced loans directed toward war industries. This is not normal growth. A February 2022 decree ordered banks to issue “preferential loans” to military suppliers. Banks obey. The Kremlin spends. The illusion of resilience continues.

This shadow credit now equals almost the entire official defense budget. Inflation has climbed near ten percent. Food prices have quadrupled. Pensioners protest outside the Kremlin while real businesses collapse under interest rates above thirty-seven percent. The government claims a two-percent deficit, but if this hidden debt were counted, the real figure exceeds six percent of GDP.

These loans hide four converging risks: inflationary collapse, banking insolvency, industrial decline, and the post-war default wave when contracts end and firms fail. Each missile fired adds compound interest. Each drone strike drains another loan. The state is mortgaging its future to survive the present.

From recruitment failures in Yakutia to elite purges inside Moscow, the same arithmetic drives the crisis. Putin can silence dissent, but he cannot silence math. The numbers are unyielding: Russia’s economy is not strong, it is leveraged. The war is not funded by power, but by debt.

This is how empires end — not through revolution, but through receipts. Russia’s $446 billion war debt is the fuse burning toward the Kremlin.

CHAPTERS:

00:00 – The Illusion of Strength

01:10 – Cracks in the Fear

02:35 – When Silence Breaks

03:40 – Arithmetic of Collapse

05:10 – The Secret Law of 2022

06:55 – Russia’s Hidden War Budget

08:25 – The Debt Spiral

09:40 – Four Dangers Converging

10:50 – The Revolt from Within

12:00 – Cracks in the Regime’s Core

13:10 – Ukraine Strikes Back

14:15 – The Economic Time Bomb

15:10 – The Empire of Receipts

16:00 – Call to Action

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Dr. Jason Jay Smart, also known as Jason Smart and Jason J Smart, is a political adviser who has lived and worked in Ukraine, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Latin America. In 2010, he was banned for life by the Kremlin for supporting Russia’s democratic opposition to Vladimir Putin.

#RussiaCollapse #PutinDebtCrisis #UkraineVictory #KremlinCrisis #WarEconomy #JasonJaySmart #SupportUkraine

Russia’s war machine is collapsing from the inside. Every drone strike on a refinery, every shipment delayed, every unpaid regional budget pushes the Kremlin closer to economic and military failure. Ukraine’s precision drone campaign is not symbolic. It is strategic. Each hit targets the arteries that keep the invasion alive: oil, logistics, and cash flow.

Behind the frontlines, Russia’s finances are disintegrating. Inflation runs above 6 percent, interest rates climb toward 15 percent, and regional deficits exceed $7 billion. Governors in Arkhangelsk, Belgorod, and Volgograd now hold only a few days of cash reserves. Teachers, doctors, and civil servants face pay cuts as Moscow drains the regions to fund its war. The propaganda remains loud, but the treasury is running dry.

Sanctions choke what is left of the state’s income. Shadow fleets pay higher insurance premiums, Asian buyers demand deeper discounts, and black-market brokers skim profits as scrutiny rises. The result is a slow-motion crash of the Russian economy. The war effort now eats its own foundations.

Ukraine’s drone war has achieved what sanctions alone could not: systemic paralysis. The Kremlin cannot repair refineries fast enough or move fuel without risking interdiction. The economy, the army, and the state all depend on a logistics network that is breaking under pressure.

Every explosion deepens the collapse. Every delay reveals weakness. The question is no longer whether Russia’s war machine will fail, but how soon.

CHAPTERS:

00:00 The Kremlin’s Illusion: The War of Spectacle

01:05 Behind the Cameras: A War of Numbers

02:05 Budgets in Freefall: Russia’s Fiscal Collapse

03:10 When Propaganda Meets Arithmetic

04:15 Russia’s Factories Can’t Be Fixed

05:15 Fuel Starvation: The Old Lesson of War

06:20 19 Refineries Down — The Numbers Speak

07:25 Ukraine’s Strategy: Cumulative Strikes

08:25 Bureaucracy and Sanctions: A Deadlock System

09:20 Regions Bankrupt, Governors Begging for Help

10:20 The Financial Triaging of the Russian State

11:10 Why the Collapse Can’t Be Hidden Anymore

12:05 Ukraine’s Resolve and Russia’s Reality

12:45 Conclusion – When the Numbers End the War

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Dr. Jason Jay Smart, also known as Jason Smart and Jason J Smart, is a political adviser who has lived and worked in Ukraine, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Latin America. In 2010, he was banned for life by the Kremlin for supporting Russia’s democratic opposition to Vladimir Putin.

#RussiaCollapse #UkraineWar #Putin #Sanctions #Economy #JasonJaySmart #Geopolitics

Russia's systemic collapse is accelerating, as new US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil strike Putin's war economy. This analysis connects the financial hammer to the internal rot, starting with the case of Timur Ivanov, the corrupt Deputy Defense Minister sentenced to 13 years who then offered to "volunteer" for the front line. This is a direct historical parallel to the 1853 Crimean War, where corruption in logistics led to military disaster. This 1905 Russo-Japanese War parallel is repeating as Putin's "short victorious war" fails.

The consequence of this rot is a war machine that is exploding. We analyze the breaking news of the "Plastmass" munitions plant explosion in Chelyabinsk, 1,700km from Ukraine, which killed 10. This follows the "Elastik" gunpowder plant disaster in Ryazan, which killed 25. As Russia's system implodes, Putin is raising the VAT to 22%, a war tax on 700,000 small businesses.

This internal failure is the direct cause of Ukraine's new victories. We show footage of the liberation of Kucheriv Yar, where over 50 Russian soldiers were captured. As Russia's fleet rots, Ukraine unveils its new 2,000kg "Sea Baby" drone with a 14.5mm machine gun. Finally, as Russia's air defense fails, Ukraine secures a deal with Sweden for 100 to 150 new Gripen E fighter jets. This is the full picture of a systemic failure.

CHAPTERS:

00:00 - Intro

01:23 - Ukraine Is Winning, Russia Cannot Win

02:48 - Precision Strike: Sanctions Destroy Russia's War Chest

04:11 - History Repeats: Generals Steal Money in 1853 & Today

05:58 - Russian Factories Explode: Corruption Is Killing the War Machine

07:12 - The 1905 Parallel: Humiliation, War Tax, and Internal Dissent

10:05 - 2,000kg Payload: Ukraine's New SeaBaby Drone & Victory

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Dr. Jason Jay Smart, also known as Jason Smart and Jason J Smart, is a political adviser who has lived and worked in Ukraine, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Latin America. In 2010, he was banned for life by the Kremlin for supporting Russia’s democratic opposition to Vladimir Putin.

The Kremlin civil war is now erupting, a dangerous Russia power struggle that echoes the chaotic 1990s and is shattering Moscow's facade of unity. Is this the moment the Putin regime collapses? Ukraine strikes are strategically accelerating internal decay. The situation inside Russia is getting incredibly slippery as the entire system begins to cannibalize itself for survival.War failures and deep internal conflict have opened critical cracks among the elite. Powerful Kremlin factions are fighting a silent war inside the walls, battling desperately for limited resources and Putin’s finite favor. This elite desperation fuels mass corruption; the old guard engages in mass theft, convinced Russia is losing. The demotion of Patrushev and the firing of Shoigu from the Security Bloc (Siloviki) show key players are paying a steep price.Ukraine drone attacks are directly amplifying this resource fight. By hitting military-industrial facilities, Ukraine is dividing the very top of the hierarchy. With critical labor shortages, runaway inflation, and red warnings flashing across the Russian economy, the Kremlin is losing its ability to maintain power. This chaos breeds the perfect conditions for betrayal and self-preservation.CHAPTERS:00:00 - Intro01:54 - Support the Truth: Like, Subscribe & Help Ukraine Win02:32 - The Fall of Patrushev: Security Bloc Demoted04:22 - Elite Theft & Economic Collapse: Why Officials are Stealing Now06:15 - Ukraine's Brilliant Strategy: Targeting Oligarch Resources09:55 - Russia's Economy Trapped: Runaway Inflation & Shortages11:33 - The End of Putin: Self-Interest Fuels Kremlin Infighting15:03 - Outro👏 Become a Channel Member: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC1txJ3q_-g_vhOeIwYOKEeQ/join⚡⚡Connect with Jason for real-time analysis & verified updates: Substack: https://jasonjaysmart.substack.comSpotify: https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/jason-jay-smartTiktok: https://www.tiktok.com/@jasonjsmart X (Twitter): https://x.com/OfficeJJSmart Facebook Personal: https://Facebook.com/JasonJaySmart Facebook Professional: https://Facebook.com/OfficeJJSmart LinkedIn: https://Linkedin.com/in/JasonJaySmart Mastodon: https://defenseofliberty.social/@OfficeJJSmart BlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/JJSmart.bsky.social YouTube: https://YouTube.com/@JasonJaySmart Website: https://JasonJaySmart.com.

Dr. Jason Jay Smart, also known as Jason Smart and Jason J Smart, is a political adviser who has lived and worked in Ukraine, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Latin America. In 2010, he was banned for life by the Kremlin for supporting Russia’s democratic opposition to Vladimir Putin.