Thursday 15th January 2026

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A cautious, uneasy calm hangs over markets this morning, with no ruling yet from the US Supreme Court on tariffs and no military response against Iran, even as the US and UK quietly evacuate personnel from a Qatar base. Equities have stumbled, led by sharp falls in the S&P and NASDAQ, while investors rotate out of big tech and into small caps and precious metals, pushing gold, silver, copper and tin to fresh records. Bond yields are lower across the board, the US dollar is softer, and commodities are firmer, all underscoring a clear risk‑off tone. China has posted a striking US$1.2 trillion annual trade surplus on stronger‑than‑expected export growth, US retail sales have surprised on the upside, and Australia’s job vacancies continue their slow drift lower. We also touch on mixed US bank earnings, improving NZ labour data, upcoming regional Fed surveys and UK GDP and industrial production out today.

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