Upside

Upside #69 - For the real news behind the headlines affecting European venture, startups and investing. Every week Mads, Lomax, Andrew and myself (Dan) get together and chat.

Bending Spoons

01:27 Berkshire-like roll-up; mostly debt-funded; big integration/tech-debt execution risk.

3:30 “US→Italy arbitrage”—cut expensive US costs, rebuild with top Italian talent + high-efficiency culture; cash-cow ops; high employee satisfaction.

05:13 Success likely hinges on better distribution/ops than previous owners.

Brexit + Europe’s challenges

07:01 “trade intensity” vs G7—UK uniquely diverging down since 2019; services don’t offset goods loss.

09:20 Labour red lines may shift; customs union helps goods but politically messy (standards).

11:02 IKEA label anecdote → regulatory complexity.

12:30 VW/Europe: China competition + governance/union constraints; Europe slow to reform; supply-chain ripple risks.

23:00 Ecosystem fix: more R&D, talent/immigration, cut red tape, govt as buyer; biggest issue = late-stage capital/pensions.

AI Corner
32:20 OpenAI “code red” on Google; distribution battle; OpenAI focusing on product vs ads/monetisation.

36:03 Winners = product + distribution + cost at scale (Google infra/TPUs advantage).

39:03 Anthropic IPO rumours (2026) debated: access to bigger pools vs “top of cycle” cynicism.

Deal of the week
41:54 Black Forest Labs — $300m at $3.25bn; image-model leader; strong ARR rumoured.

43:13 ICEYE — €200m at ~€2.5bn; SAR satellites; defence demand.

44:05 Expedition Growth Capital fundraise — €323m.

44:23 Neurocore — ~$2.5m; platform tooling for robotics ML teams.

Upside #68 w/ Robin Haak (Robin Capital), Lomax (Outsized), Mads and Dan (SuperSeed).

Topics: Germany’s slowdown • Social media bans • UK budget • Solo GPs • N26 • Europe vs Big Tech • AI Corner

01:21 – Robin’s Background

100+ investments, 8 unicorns. Co-founded SmartRecruiters → sold to SAP ($100M ARR). Former GP at Revaya (€600M AUM). Now building a 50-year solo GP franchise.

03:58 – Social Media Ban for Under-16s

Mads: EU Parliament pushes advisory resolution; strong evidence social media harms teen mental health, especially girls.

06:39 – US Says “Go Easy on Big Tech”

Lomax: US Commerce voices warn EU that tech regulation ties into trade/tariff negotiations. Don’t conflate antitrust with child safety—two different battles.

10:00 – UK Budget

Improved EMI stock options - More flexible EIS / VCT rules. Nice to hear a Chancellor talk about startups & innovation.

12:17 – EU Space Surveillance

ESA launches its first military space programme (€1B). Far behind the US, but a step toward defence autonomy.

13:19 – N26 Troubles

Regulatory caps slowed growth for years, BaFin repeatedly intervened. Leadership now reshuffling. Big question: Would N26 be Revolut-sized if founded outside Germany?

18:49 – German Economy Reality Check

GDP still below 2019 levels. Insolvencies highest in a decade. Restaurants down 20–40%. Years of underinvestment in tech, infrastructure, energy. Early nuclear shutdown = higher energy costs, fallback to coal.

25:04 – Why No Nuclear Return?

Public wants it (~75%). Politics block it; ideology > pragmatism.

27:07 – German Decline Impact on Startups

ESOP improved (still heavy tax). Bureaucracy is brutal: notaries, translations, delays. Many founders incorporate Delaware C-Corp + German GmbH.

Solo GP / Part-Time VC Trend

34:21 – The Movement

US led the way: Elad Gil, Auren, Buckley.

Three types: Lifelong solo GPs. Solo-to-multi-GP founders. Part-time solo GPs (e.g., 11 Labs’ Carlos Reiner). It works at $15–30M scale; Fund II usually becomes full-time.

40:10 – OpenAI, Google & Anthropic

OpenAI may need $200B+ by 2030. Google’s Gemini 3 beating OpenAI on many benchmarks. Monetisation gap: only ~5% of ChatGPT users pay. Warren Buffett buying Google is a signal?

44:57 – The Scary Bit: God-AI

Robin cites Eric Schmidt: If an adversary builds god-AI first, “we might have to bomb it.”

This week in Upside #67 Mads returns from Slush with 24 one-to-ones under his belt and a head full of insights. Dan and Lomax dig into Germany’s €35B space strategy, the surprising data behind immigrant-founded unicorns, and Europe’s defence-IPO boom. They break down Vinted’s huge secondary, the EU’s attempt to kill cookie banners, and the UK’s sudden wave of AI investment initiatives.

In AI Corner: why 70% of AI startups now ship on open-source models, Google’s new TPU-trained Gemini 3, and another blowout quarter from Nvidia. Plus: Deal of the Week — Voize, the AI tool transforming nursing-home documentation.

03:15 — Slush Deep Dive
Mads on Helsinki’s neon-lit founder festival, matchmaking tables, and why Slush still beats Web Summit.

07:45 — Germany’s €35B Space Strategy
Why Berlin is going big on space-as-defence — and whether Europe can ever compete at scale.

12:10 — Immigrant Founders Powerhouse
The surprising stats: 50–90% of US unicorn founders are immigrants; half of the UK’s fastest-growing companies too.

26:10 — Cookies Out, AI Regulation Rolled Back
The EU’s Digital Omnibus: fewer cookie banners, looser GDPR for AI training, and a major regulatory U-turn.

46:40 — AI Corner: TPUs vs GPUs & Open Source Wins
70% of startups using open-source LLMs; Google’s TPU-trained Gemini 3 beats benchmarks; Nvidia still sold out through 2026.

Each week a small bunch of us try and makes sense of the latest news affecting European venture. 

Upside #66 - The theme this week is back to tech sovereignty, what that really means, what’s trade, what’s security - and ultimately will we all become full stack nations?

01:04 – UK exit tax: what it was and why it was dropped
The mooted UK “exit tax” (tax on unrealised gains when leaving the country), why it would be disastrous for founders, political “pitch-rolling” before budgets, and Tom Blomfield’s alternative idea of taxing gains accrued while in the UK.

08:17 – State of AI (McKinsey / QuantumBlack report)
Quick take on enterprise AI: almost every large org says it’s using AI, mostly for agentic/workflow use cases, but only ~1% report mature deployment or meaningful bottom-line impact, implying a long runway but slower-than-hyped progress.

09:54 – Nexperia & Europe’s chip vulnerability
Deep dive into Nexperia’s role in Europe’s mid-tech auto chips, EU–China tensions, how wafers are made in Europe but packaged in China, and what that reveals about the fragility of the European automotive supply chain.

13:15 – Ripping out Huawei/ZTE from 5G
Discussion of the EU’s move to give legal force to removing Chinese vendors from 5G infrastructure, the huge retrofit costs for telcos (esp. German operators), and whether this is driven by trade, security, or both.

16:18 – Einride SPAC & Palantir / Alex Karp
Einride’s US SPAC at a $1.8B valuation vs the Nikola fiasco; Palantir’s soaring stock, Alex Karp’s persona and “word salad” style, his emphasis on privacy-centric data architectures for governments, and the tension between admiration for serious infra and discomfort with founder-power.

23:06 – AI market wobble & Michael Burry’s bearish case
The recent pull-back in Mag7/AI names (esp. Nvidia), and whether it’s a blip or bubble-pop; Burry’s big short on hyperscalers and AI plays, and his history as an early Cassandra of the GFC.

23:52 – Chinese open-source models & hyperscaler accounting games
How Chinese open-source models (e.g. Kimi K2) are catching frontier labs and threatening closed-source economics, plus Burry’s argument that hyperscalers are overstating profits by stretching GPU lifetimes (4→6 years) and front-loading capex based on optimistic AI revenue expectations.

33:28 – Tech sovereignty, AI-powered cyber attacks & kill switches
Anthropic’s disclosure of LLM-assisted cyber attacks using Claude Code via social engineering; concerns over remote kill switches in Chinese-made buses in UK/Scandi fleets; broader questions about dependence on Chinese vendors and the push for “full-stack” sovereignty.

41:45 – De-globalisation & the cost of going ‘full stack’
Debate over whether every region trying to do everything domestically is sustainable; loss of cheap-labour-driven low inflation, need for critical minerals and energy at home, and how much poorer or safer societies might become under techno-sovereignty.

47:49 – Deals of the Week: BillionToOne and Gamma
BillionToOne’s ~$4.5–5B IPO (YC 2017; strong European VC participation); Pfizer’s $10B acquisition of GLP-1 player Metsera and what it signals for biotech; Gamma’s $68M Series B at a $2.1B valuation as a potential disruptor of the traditional Office/Slides stack.

Upside Ep #65 - A Baltic Boom, Matt Clifford Rouses, A Tale Of Two Quants

A weekly show that unpacks the shenanigans affecting European venture.

Dan (host), Mads, Lomax, Special Guest: Jone (Yo neh) — Managing Partner, First Pick (Lithuania)

3:26 — Pre-seed vs Seed in the Baltics
•Why pre-seed fits: seed still feels early; when companies inflect, foreign funds out-gun local check sizes. Funds in region typically €10–€100M AUM, so Series A+ is handed off.

05:39 — Foreign funds’ interest & “guarding the land”
•Active sharing with bigger EU funds; Creandum dinner takeaway: Baltics are insanely good at distribution; product/elite-tech depth thinner than popular myth, but revenue ramps fast.

07:29 — Baltic bootstrapping culture
•Many regional champions are bootstrapped (e.g., Hostinger, Kilo Health, NordVPN/Tesonet group influence). Venture is used sparingly; winning a VC spot is hard as rounds are scarce/oversubscribed.

10:49 — Defence: Rheinmetall–Lithuania invests €300m
•Facts: €300M JV; Baisogala site; ~340 ha footprint; ~150 jobs; ground-breaking 4 Nov 2025; ops start 2026 with ramp in 2027.
•Why Lithuania? Panel view: incentives, speed, and financing (tax holidays, fast-track planning, heavy local co-funding) plus NATO signaling despite border-risk optics.

15:15 — Matt Clifford @ LFG: “Permissionlessness” & the stagnation decade
•Vibe check from the room: energising, pro-growth, anti-bureaucracy.
•Core claim discussed: ~17 years of UK productivity stagnation → lost income per head; call to cut red tape and celebrate building.
•Reflexive critique: does it resonate beyond London; EF’s Delaware flips vs UK nation-building narrative tension.

29:26 — Quantum UK - Can we?
•FT-sparked chat on UK/EU quantum software (e.g., Phasecraft, Riverlane) and hardware roots (PsiQuantum, Quantinuum) with UK lineage; big valuations, long road to revenue.

32:09 — Quants (trading): Yes we can!
•UK bright spot: quant trading still world-class; XTX building a ~25k-GPU cluster (context: new German “AI factory” cited at ~10k GPUs).
•Talent gravity: CS/math grads pulled into quant comp; debate on startup talent crowd-out vs recycling (e.g., XTX backing AI seeds).

39:57 — AI Corner
•Funding loops & hyperscaler deals: OpenAI multi-year cloud commits; when is it circular vs normal vendor financing? Panel splits hairs on cash vs credits and market discipline.
•CALM (China): continuous autoregressive idea = interesting/iterative step, not a “DeepSeek moment.”
•OpenAI & legal: limiting in-app legal advice framed as product direction/lead-gen potential for pros.
•Nvidia + Deutsche Telekom: ~€1.2B / ~10k GPUs in Germany—welcomed, but scale gap vs US mega-centres.
•Nebius “Token Factory”: EU-HQ’d “neo-cloud” (Yandex spin-out context) aggregating low-cost OS models; compelling for cost-sensitive workloads if 95–99% “good enough.” (Regional perception note: in Baltics it’s still seen as “Russian-adjacent”, brand kept intentionally low-key.)

53:53 — Deal(s) of the Week)
•Nexus AI (LT) — $8M on deck from Index, followed swiftly by Avantar/Creandum; Tesonet/NordVPN founders; routing/LLM infra for companies; signalling win for Vilnius scene. (Raised on deck, then followed up quickly.)
•Poolside (FR/US) — Rumoured $2B round; Nvidia up to $1B; valuation jump $3B → $12B; deeper code-gen/automation focus; meaningful transatlantic footprint.

The pod that unpacks the real news behind the clickbait affecting European venture.

Hosts: Dan, Mads, Lomax, Andrew

02:41 — Bending Spoons deep dive
Debt-fuelled roll-up, “Berkshire of consumer apps” analogy; Ukrainian peer Gentek noted; why more post-COVID roll-ups didn’t materialise.

04:34 — US debt vs Europe risk
Market’s view on capital allocation/dynamism; Decacorns vs unicorns; power-law returns reinforce Botha’s point.

06:01 — “VC isn’t an asset class” debate
Power-law concentration, PR angle, and incentives; media takeaways.

07:31 — Euro VC vibes
Lakestar & optics; ecosystem still 5× over decade despite headlines.

08:30 — Feature: Should governments buy stocks?
Khosla’s 10% stake in all public companies to offset AI/AGI shocks:

• Pros: Alignment with growth; potential UBI funding; sovereign-wealth-style upside.
• Cons: Partial nationalisation optics, execution complexity, tying state finances tighter to market swings.
• Middle paths: SWF/index recycling of taxes; robot/compute taxation; focus on efficient government vs expropriation.

17:45 — Back-of-envelope math
US equities ~$60T → 10% ≈ $6T; even 10% yield wouldn’t cover current US interest bill; cautions on bull-market assumptions.

19:03 — UK Budget preview (26 Nov)
Backdrop: softer productivity, fiscal squeeze.

• Likely: CGT/inheritance tweaks, mansion tax; maybe EMI/startup relief refinements.
• Founder advice: avoid doom loop—head down and build; some may move to US, less so Dubai.

22:25 — Should founders raise now (pre-correction)?

• Consensus: If you can raise on decent terms, extend runway; always-be-raising (selectively).
• Don’t panic or over-dilute; keep shipping.
• If no PMF, fix product/positioning before chasing capital.

29:02 — AI Corner

• NVIDIA at $5T: Hyperscalers’ capex still ramping; huge backlog; dominance but margins likely compress with competition/custom silicon.
• Nokia stake: Smart edge/5G–6G positioning; GPUs closer to towers for network optimisation & edge AI.
• OpenAI recap: For-profit structure finalised; Microsoft looks like the clearest public proxy (exclusivities, licenses).
• Meta’s mixed moment & layoffs framed more as performance-management cycles than AI doom.

42:58 — Deals of the Week

• Sales Patriot (Warsaw): €4.2m to modernise defence procurement; aim to be system of record.
• Legora (legal AI, Stockholm): $150m at $1.8B, ~5 months after Series B.
• Robin AI: Sale process after $70m raised—cautionary tale on GTM/scale.
• Bending Spoons ↔ AOL/Vimeo: More roll-up momentum.
• Synthesia: $200m at $4B; reportedly turned down a $3B Adobe offer—go-for-growth stance.

45:50 — UK quantum spotlight
QFX round (Paul Graham involved); UK’s deep quantum bench (PsiQuantum/Quantinuum roots; Oxford Ionics ~$1B sale to IonQ). Challenge: scaling while keeping firms in the UK.

Upside - the weekly pod exploring the real news behind the clickrage affecting European venture, startups and investing.

Hosts: Dan, Mads, Lomax, Andrew

04:56 - Amazon, Robots & Europe’s Automation
• Amazon aims for 75% robotised operations by 2033 in the US.
• Automation = productivity growth, not mass layoffs.
• Europe: >80% of warehouses still manual; Germany highly automated.
• Debate: displacement vs. growth; Europe can't fall behind.

18:50 - AI & Europe’s Industrial Revolution
• Can Europe capture AI’s value?
• Most AI projects fail due to lack of readiness, not tech.
• The human in the loop - Underinvestment in training and integration.
• Discussion: China racing ahead; Europe needs tech-smart leadership.

39:04 - UK AI Sandbox - What a waste of sand?
• New UK initiative to test AI under relaxed rules.
• Unlike fintech, AI isn’t “gate-kept” - barriers are procurement and deployment.
• Use NHS as testbed for AI admin tools to cut waitlists.

50:13 - EU “28th Regime” - Directive or Law?
• Proposed single EU startup entity (like a Delaware C-Corp).
• Regulation = uniform law; Directive = messy national versions.
• Local tailoring inevitable - but harmonisation could save €2B/yr in admin costs.

59:54 Deal of the Week - Comind
• Comind raises $102M Series A (Plural) — non-invasive brain-computer interface.
• Mentions: Revolut ($75B raise rumour), Wayve ($2B fundraise).

Upside #62 w/ Dan and Mads from SuperSeed plus Ben from Bullhound Capital

Key Topics
• Fundraising climate in European for VC - friend or foe?
• Goldman Sachs’ Industry Ventures acquisition - getting into alternatives?!
• Nobel Prize in Economics: Why does this matter to VC and Europe?
• What's fuelling the AI bubble headlines? Hype vs fundamentals
• China’s physical AI advantage - have they won AI already?
• Europe does have a strategic path
• Deal of the Week: ecoRobotix

03:01 – VC Fundraising Outlook
• Post-2021 pullback continues.
• Flight to top brands: most LP capital going to top 30 funds.
• More government/EU money = policy strings.
• Low DPI but potential relief from Klarna IPO.
• Market consolidation = stronger survivors.

07:08 – LP Sentiment
• Big AI rounds crowding noise → more space for overlooked gems.
• Growing interest in early-stage, AI, defence, resilience.

09:23 – GS Buys Industry Ventures - Why?
• Traditional finance deeper in VC.
• Secondary liquidity engine + huge data moat (700 funds / 10k co’s).
• Smart strategic move for Goldman.

12:36 – Nobel Prize in Economics?
• Aghion & Howitt’s work proves innovation drives growth — VC validated.
• Missing pieces: state de-risking, catch-up growth, China’s dual strategy.

20:42 – AI “Bubble” or Just Massive Bets?
• OpenAI’s trillion-dollar compute plans (NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, Oracle).
• OpenAI vs Google monetisation war.
• Circular financing risk with negative margins down the stack. Will retail be left holding the baby?
• Long-term value in vertical AI with data moats.

31:11 – China’s Physical AI Advantage
• Western Execs return “shaken” from dark factories.
• BYD rising fast.
• China deploying “good enough” open-source AI into everything.

39:24 – Europe’s Playbook
• JP Morgan’s $1.5T “security & resiliency” plan shows capital *can* be mobilised.
• Europe’s challenge: reallocate pension/government capital to productive tech.

45:43 – Deal of the Week: ecoRobotix
• Swiss physical AI agri-robotics.
• Precision spraying cuts pesticide use 95%.
• €90M Series D led by Highland Europe & McWin.

Voices: Nicholas Nelson (Archangel) • Dan • Lomax • Mads

TL;DR

• Defence-first wins on capability and returns; primes are partners and channels.
• Helsing: buys platforms/revenue for access; layers AI—different from Anduril’s buy-TRL-tech + scale model.
• Beyond drones: biggest gap/opportunity is tactical EW.
• Procurement: more fast lanes (SOF, pilots); primes getting easier to work with.
• AI: real profits exist (esp. NVIDIA), but value chain is fragile; expect a correction, not a collapse. Picking winners > timing.

02:40 — Why defence-first
Beats dual-use on outcomes and returns; lifelong focus.

04:32 — Definitions
Customer = MoDs + primes; aim: lethality/readiness and societal resilience. Beware “defence-washing”.

06:37 — What’s hot
Avoid herd to drones only; counter-UAS, EW, human performance, deception, survivability.

08:23 — Helsing buys Grob
Neo-prime play: new co buys legacy manufacturing for platform access.

10:42 — The two Defence M&A playbooks
Anduril: buys mid-TRL tech (Area-I, Dive LD/Ghost Shark, Adranos) → scales via brand/distribution.
Helsing: buys finished products/revenue (Mittelstand) → immediate customers; then add AI.

14:25 — Prime status & capital
Distribution + capital to AI-enable platforms.

17:47 — Roll-up vs build
Narrative “build”; execution “roll-up + build”.

19:47 — Drones & ‘drone wall’
Layered answer: blunt with drones, hold with conventional forces.

21:49 — The big one: Electronic Warfare (EW)
NATO underinvested; tactical EW is the unmet need; legacy kit is ’80s/’90s.

24:54 — Startup wedge
Put EW at the edge (drones/aircraft/fixed) → near-term wins.

26:33 — Baltic realism
History, 2007–09 Estonia cyber, current incursions; likely Kaliningrad corridor.

28:19 — Founder mistakes
Tech ≠ win by itself; experience + gov engagement matters; US analogue: top funds have IC/SOF DNA.

30:43 —  Are there really only a “Few buyers?”
Many real buyers inside a MoD/DoD (services, sub-units, innovation orgs).

36:23 — Sovereignty & US primes
US strategics will buy abroad; Europe balancing autonomy with jobs/exits.

41:07 — Starlink vs IRIS²
Starlink’s lead + cadence; IRIS² slower—watch timelines vs evolving threats.

47:18 — AI bubble?
Warnings vs fundamentals; self-funded capex; real profits.

49:37 — NVIDIA ramp
$4.4B (2023) → $73B this year; growth tempers multiples.

51:48 — AI Circular money & margins
Cursor → Anthropic → hyperscalers → NVIDIA; only NVIDIA mints big margins; margin pressure coming (new semis, China, SLMs).

53:12 — Picking beats timing
Dot-com lesson: Cisco losses vs Amazon wins.

54:19 — Capacity vs efficiency
Capex likely useful long-run, but open source squeezes costs.

55:52 — Platform risk
Frontier labs moving up-stack; vertical AI + trust + data = moat.

58:58 — Base case
Likely correction (30–50%) at some point; timing is unknowable (not investment advice).

🎧 Upside Ep #60 — “White Gold, Red Ink, and Reinventing VC”

Hosts: Dan · Lomax · Andrew
Recorded: Oct 2, 2025

01:00 – Quick News Highlights

• 🇺🇸 US Shutdown — $15B GDP loss per week; political theatre more than fiscal risk.
• 🇬🇧 Labour Party Conference — Starmer’s 13% approval, OBR to cut productivity; £10B headroom could flip to £20B deficit.
• 💰 UK recovers $5B from Bitcoin fraud (FT)
• 🔐 UK demands Apple backdoor again (TechCrunch)
• 🤖 OpenAI $500B valuation (FT)
• 🌉 EF exits Europe, launches “Bridge” Bay Area program (Sifted)
• 🎬 Sora 2 video model - Sam A videos. Bwahaha 

10:00 – EF’s US Pivot

EF closes Paris/Berlin, focusing on US founder “sheep-dipping.”
 Validation of EU founder quality but reminder: growth capital + urgency still American advantages.

17:00 – Germany’s Lithium Discovery

• 43M tons found in northern Germany — ~$600B in-ground value.
• DLE extraction (from brines) cleaner but unproven.
• Europe could cover 50 years of demand, yet permitting, costs, and NIMBY issues loom.
• Real win may lie in refining and gigafactory build-out, not mining alone.

22:00 – London’s IPO Decline

• London slips to #23 globally; IPO volume down 69% ($248M → $42M).
• Causes: low equity appetite, no tech weighting, over-regulation, pension conservatism.
• Fixes: incentivise pension investment, cut stamp duty, attract tech listings.

27:00 – Should Governments Bail Out?

• UK guarantees £1.5B loan to JLR (post-cyberattack).
• Critics: moral hazard, no cyber-insurance, political pork-barrelling.
• Compare: Germany’s bold €500B public investment plan.
• Consensus: backstop only if government gets warrants + drives reform.

41:00 – Reinventing VC

• US mega-firms become RIAs, investing across public/private assets.
• New players: Evantic ($400M), Striker (10 LPs × 10 startups).
• AI models now beat humans at picking founders.
• Europe lags — still relationship-driven, early-stage remains “artisanal.”

51:00 – Deals of the Week

• 💥 Concept Ventures – £88M pre-seed fund (UK)
• 🧪 Periodic Labs – $300M seed (ex-DeepMind/OpenAI)
• 💼 Creator Fund – €80M pan-EU deep tech
• ⚖️ Legora – raising $100M @ $1.7B
• 🧠 Black Forest Labs – $4B valuation talks
• 🦄 Cleo, Tide hit unicorn status

57:00 – Defence & Tech

• Highlights from London Resilience Conference: surge in EU defence startups, faster US build cycles, procurement reform lagging.
• MI6’s real “Q” reveals gadget: surveillance dog poo.

59:00 – Wrap

Europe’s week in contrast: industrial ambition (Germany), structural pain (London), creative churn (VC & AI). Momentum builds — even amid the mess.