We're in a studio this week, sounding joojie. Mads and I discussing this week's news, views and thoughts around Europe, startup, and investing. What's moving the needle, what's not, and why.

The Decline of Europe’s Automotive Industry
◦ The shift from internal combustion engines (ICE) to electric vehicles (EVs).
◦ Why Chinese automakers are dominating global markets.
◦ Can Europe recover, or is the industry destined for slow decline?

Trillion-Dollar Companies: Can Europe Compete?
◦ Why Europe has yet to produce a trillion-dollar company.
◦ Strategic importance of big tech companies for economic growth and national influence.
◦ Key sectors that could drive Europe's first trillion-dollar success: biopharma, quantum technology, and energy.

China vs. the US: The Resource War
◦ The implications of China restricting exports of critical metals like gallium and germanium.
◦ How this trade war impacts Europe and global supply chains.
◦ The importance of resource independence and domestic production.

The AI Cage Match: Elon Musk vs. Sam Altman
◦ The history of OpenAI, its pivot to a for-profit model, and Musk’s fallout.
◦ The rise of XAI and the battle for AI supremacy.
◦ Will Nvidia face real competition in the AI chip market?

Founder Corner: The Psychology of Founders
◦Insights into founder breakups and the challenges of building a startup.
◦How Europe’s culture of risk aversion may hinder innovation.
◦The importance of supporting founders to build resilient, long-term businesses.

Bitcoin and Morality
◦A heated debate about the ethics of Bitcoin and its role in the economy.
◦Speculation, regulation, and the future of cryptocurrencies.
◦Does Bitcoin represent humanity’s worst impulses, or is it a driver of innovation?

1st Dec 2024 - This week in Euro VC.

Super happy to have Lomax from outsized.vc with us today bringing an extra edge of health tech. 

Dan shares his experiences with nekohealth.com full body scanning. 

What's the future of preventative scanning, when will it be NHS ready and what opportunities are there for startups.

ChatGPT is 2! How OpenAI stole the march on Google, who invented the transformer.

LLMs - what's next and from whom.

Northolt. Gah. Into administration she goes - $21bn spent but is it all lost?

Recursion and ExScientia - how they bowed out stage right with a whimper.

Are psychedelics back? Will RFK open European doors?

Cradle Bio - Boom! Massive series B - bring on Europe!

Summary
Dan and Mads discuss key developments in European venture capital, focusing on the recent Slush event, the implications of Bitcoin hitting $100k, Anthropic raising $4bn, the volatility of Bitcoin - what is it and what will it become, Klarna's US IPO, does Europe need it's own search engine? Are we at peak AI?

Takeaways
Slush is great, founders focused, 13,000 attendees.
Bitcoin to hit $100k? But it's what? And is it good for us?
Anthropic raises $4bn but are we at peak AI?
Klarna - Europe's exceptional founders have nowhere to go but the US
Revolut gets its UK license and is after you mr big bank.
Does Europe need its own search engine? Howabout no.

Chapters
00:00 Insights from Slush: A Major European VC Event
09:00 The Future of Bitcoin and Government Regulation
16:06 Challenges in AI Development and Data Limitations
22:54 Local vs Global Search Engines: A European Perspective

This week in European VC - Dan and Mads explore the real revenue generated by AI startups, not hAIpy at all, no one went to COP29, the EU startup passport is arriving much sooner than anticipated, Germany's instability as an opportunity, AI is programming, insights from a recent MIT report on material science, and the global and local economic ramifications of Trump's administration. 

The average time for an AI startup to hit $1M in revenue is 11 months.
COP29 has seen a lack of attendance from major world leaders.
The EU startup passport aims to simplify regulations for startups.
Germany's government collapse could lead to more European reforms.
AI is 25% of coding at Google.
It's proven - AI significantly enhances productivity in material science.
Trump's election results. His focus on economic issues won over identity politics.
Increased M&A activity in 2025. Bitcoin up. IPOs up. Climate and humans be damned.
Startups will find new opportunities in this changing global landscape.

Chapters
00:00 AI Startups: Real Revenue vs Hype
05:47 EU Startup Passport: A New Era for Entrepreneurs
11:17 AI in Code: The Future of Software Development
17:04 Trump's Election: Implications for Global Economy
22:32 Opportunities and Challenges for European Startups

Show Notes and links

Dan - AI start-ups generate money faster than past hyped tech companies - 
https://www.ft.com/content/a9a192e3-bfbc-461e-a4f3-112e63d0bb33 

Average time  for an AI company to hit $1m is 11 months. SaaS is 15.

Cursor grew from $4M ARR to $4M/month in less than 12 months. AI is not just hAIpe - https://www.arr.club/signal/cursor-arr-at-50m-growing-crazy-from-4m-in-april 

AI vs SaaS Growth: AI start-ups reaching $30 million in annual revenue do so in about 20 months, five times faster than earlier SaaS firms.

Global Demand: Roughly 56% of AI companies’ revenue comes from international markets, with substantial purchases in regions like Singapore and Iceland.

Notable Examples: OpenAI, ElevenLabs, and DeepL are examples of successful AI companies. OpenAI’s ChatGPT became the fastest-growing consumer app, generating $3.6 billion in annual revenue despite high operational costs.

COP29 - none of the big wigs are there - Forty-eight fewer heads of state are addressing COP29 than last year. Xi Jinping and Joe Biden—presidents of the two biggest oil-producing countries - won’t be there. Russia not there. What will this mean for startups?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-11/cop29-negotiators-agree-on-some-rules-for-global-carbon-market?sref=KkPzpZvz&srnd=homepage-americas

New UK target for 81% emissions cut by 2035 https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2ny8zndpxo

The new EU Startup passport
Announced by Ursula von der Leyen - EU Commission President

German Government has collapsed
Scholz calling for new elections

AI Now Writes Over 25% of Code at Google - 
https://uk.pcmag.com/ai/155094/ai-now-writes-over-25-of-code-at-google

Google Confirms Jarvis AI Is Real by Accidentally Leaking It - 
https://gizmodo.com/google-confirms-jarvis-ai-is-real-by-accidentally-leaking-it-2000521089?

Artificial Intelligence, Scientific Discovery, and Product Innovation* by Aidan Toner-Rodgers† at MIT
https://aidantr.github.io/files/AI_innovation.pdf

- AI automates 57% of idea-generation tasks, allowing scientists to focus on evaluating AI-suggested compounds.
- It reduces repetitive, low-value research directions.
- AI-assisted researchers discover 44% more materials, leading to a 39% increase in patent filings and a 17% rise in product prototypes that incorporate these materials.

Trump globally. Trump administration to the UK and Europe - what next?

In this conversation, Dan and Mads discuss what Trump will and won't do now he's in. IS CHIPS out? As Europe's CHIPS is in? UK's investment woes with such little support from Govt. Warren Buffett cashes out - Apple now. Is the market over priced? GS thinks so. AI disrupting big tech gets bigger. Founder burnout is back, bigger and badder so what role should venture capitalists play?

Full contents

• Drama drama - The 2024 election will have significant implications, for all.
• Trump's policies will open the M&A landscape.
• The CHIPS Act - Will he really repeal it?
• Europe's semiconductor strategy vs the U.S.
• Will the UK government finaaalllly get round to prioritising investment? 
• Warren Buffett's cash out hits $325bn 
• The AI race is poking Google in the eye, again.
• Startup founder burnout goes big 
• Building a VC backed startup is, just, brutal. Know the beast.

In this conversation we dig into the UK's Autumn Budget - it's just *not* investor or build friendly - gah, Germany launches more non-profits, will ARM enter the AI arms race *against* it's own customers?!... and yet *more* regulation - this time in the beautiful game, but why that matters.

Chapters
00:00 Juvenile Politics
00:27 UK Autumn Budget: Invest Invest Invest! Ok, don't then.
04:22 Economic Growth Needs the Right Frameworks
08:12 The Future of Startups in an AI-Driven World
13:09 ARM vs Nvidia: Arm Getting in the Arms Race?
21:40 Volkswagen's quality problems
25:27 Football Regulation. Hang on. I thought you said less regulation?

In this conversation Dan and Mads explore crazy hAIpe valuations at Perplexity, Claude controlling the desktop in Enterprise - but RPA is nothing new, Palantir, the NHS and patient records? Is everyone becoming a media company? American markets will chill the growth now, what will a Trump administration really mean for the economy? And more...

Chapters
00:00 AI Valuations are Going to be hAIpe. Right?
01:58 AI in RPA in the Enterprise - I won't close the podbay doors Dave.
03:45 NHS Digital Records, Palentir, any Opportunities for Startups?
07:24 NHS Technology (failed) Implementations
10:09 The Future of Workforce and AI Integration
12:59 The Content Economy - is Everyone Becoming a Media Business?
15:47 Europe's Innovation Gap Again - Will Draghi win out?
18:38 AI's is the Only Way to Grow (Within the Resources we Have)
21:43 What Will a Trump Admin Really Mean for the Economy?
24:28 The Future is a Gift

In this conversation, Dan and Mads explore the current state of European venture capital, who cares about climate change? insights from the UK International Investment Summit, public sector investment could cost us nothing, and make us everything, Trumps trolls in the polls, EU Inc Petition - any teeth? SpaceX caught a thing - so what, liquidity is everything in VC. 

Takeaways
• UK based VCs are on track to raise over £12bn this year - more than 2021.
• Corporates bow out of COP29 - virtue signalling over?
• Investment in climate tech is projected to drop by 20% in 2024.
• The UK International Investment Summit - meaningful outcomes?
• Public sector investment can potentially cost nothing & create everything.
• The EU project - is it over?
• The EU Inc petition - any teeth?
• SpaceX's caught a thing, so what?
• Venture capital is experiencing a lack of exits = no liquidity - now what?
• Trump and trolls in the polls
• The answer to strategic investment that will really drive growth.

Chapters
00:00 European Venture Capital Landscape
07:03 Climate Change and Corporate Responsibility
12:01 UK International Investment Summit Insights
17:04 Public Sector Investment and Economic Growth
24:39 The Future of the European Project - Is the EU dead?
28:59 EU Inc Petition - any teeth?
31:12 SpaceX caught at thing - so what?
37:31 Venture Capital and liquidity - where is it coming from?

Keywords
European venture capital, climate change, UK investment, public sector investment, EU project, startup ecosystem, SpaceX, venture capital challenges

In this conversation, the hosts discuss a range of topics including the recent Nobel Prizes awarded for AI innovations, the regulatory challenges facing Google, the economic situation in the UK, and the future of venture capital. They explore the implications of the Regulatory Innovation Office in the UK, the appetite of Limited Partners (LPs) for investing in venture capital, and the significance of ownership and location for European startups. The discussion highlights both the challenges and opportunities within the current landscape, emphasising the need for careful handling of emerging technologies and regulatory frameworks.

Takeaways
• Nobel Prizes awarded for AI innovations highlight the importance of technology in medicine and environmental issues.
• AI technologies are fundamental to the current industrial revolution but require careful regulation.
• The DOJ's move to break up Google may be ironic as the company faces more competition than ever.
• UK borrowing costs are rising, raising concerns about the impact on startups and the venture scene.
• The Regulatory Innovation Office aims to streamline approvals for new technologies, but its effectiveness remains to be seen.
• LPs are currently cautious about investing in venture capital, with a notable decline in interest in first-time managers.
• There are pockets of renewed interest from family offices looking to invest in emerging managers.
• European startups are increasingly raising significant capital, indicating a growing talent pool.
• Ownership and location are becoming less rigid as companies seek funding across borders.
• Despite challenges, the overall sentiment is that European venture is progressing positively.

Chapters
00:00 Introduction to the European VC Podcast
01:47 Nobel Prizes and AI Innovations
03:23 Regulatory Challenges and Market Dynamics
05:34 The Future of Google and Antitrust Issues
10:53 UK Economic Challenges and Startup Impact
19:06 Regulatory Innovation and Its Implications
22:34 LPs and the Future of Venture Capital
31:25 Ownership, Location, and European Startups

Summary
Dan and Mads discuss Europe's energy challenges, the need for more positive leadership, the future of remote work, the transformative impact of AI on society, and insights from the Foundations paper regarding the stagnation of the UK economy. They explore the implications of these themes on the future of technology, infrastructure, and economic growth.

Takeaways
Europe faces significant energy challenges to support AI growth.
Positive leadership is crucial for business morale and investment.
The return to office mandates - a step backwards or forwards.
AI is set to revolutionise err, everything.
The UK's complicated planning stifles investment.
Infrastructure projects in the UK are significantly more expensive than peers.
Real wage growth in the UK has been stagnant for years.
The Foundations paper highlights systemic issues in the UK economy.
Historical examples show that the UK can recover from economic downturns.
Optimism and strategic planning are essential for future growth.

Sound Bites
"How will Europe power the next wave of AI?"
"We need a positive message from our leaders."
"Is Amazon's return to office a step backwards?"

Chapters
00:00 Introduction and Overview of Topics
01:07 Energy Challenges in Europe: The Case of Three Mile Island
05:17 Positivity and Energy in the UK: A Call for Optimism
07:53 Amazon's Return to Office Policy: A Step Forward or Backward?
09:57 Chip Manufacturing in the UAE: Samsung and TSMC's Plans
11:52 The Future of AI: Predictions for 2030
16:34 Telegram's Concessions: Implications for Messaging Platforms
17:36 Meta's Orion Glasses: The Future of Human Connectivity?
23:16 Foundations Paper: Understanding the UK's Economic Stagnation
29:27 Unlocking Growth: The Path Forward for the UK

Keywords
energy, AI, leadership, remote work, UK economy, nuclear power, positivity, technology, infrastructure, productivity