Upside

Upside #29 - Le Summit, Le Chat, Le $100bn

LP Blind Spots
LP in Asia with 3000 managers but only 3 in Europe—why?
European VC viewed as a "blind spot" by many investors in Asia and the US.
The need for European investors to bridge the perception gap.

Deep Dive: The France AI Summit
Focus on "Inclusive and Sustainable AI."
100 countries in attendance, 61 signed the agreement—but UK and US did not.
Discussion around ethics, accessibility, and the role of global AI governance.
JD Vance’s speech highlighted US dominance and reluctance to align with EU directives.
Debate: Was it the right call for the UK not to sign?

EU’s €50B AI Investment
US announced $500B AI initiative; France followed with €109B.
Comparison between Macron's AI plan, UK AI strategy, and Bidenomics.
The importance of aligning private investment with government funding.

Mistral’s ‘Le Chat’ AI Model
French AI company Mistral launched "Le Chat."
Designed for speed but criticised for lacking depth and innovation.
Open-source AI as Europe's potential advantage in the global AI race.

AI Corner
GPT-4.5 expected within weeks, the last non-chain-of-thought model.
Grok 3 by XAI (Elon Musk) in development, set to challenge OpenAI’s dominance.
Open-source AI progress making Europe a contender in the AI space.

Interest Rates and UK Economic Outlook
Bank of England’s 25 bps rate cut—will it impact startups and investments?
UK growth forecast halved to 0.75%.
Concerns about stagflation, job losses, and productivity decline.
Can AI be the key to unlocking efficiency in government services?

AstraZeneca Vaccine Plant Withdrawal
UK government cut state aid from £90M to £40M.
AstraZeneca chose to invest elsewhere. Ble.
A significant loss for Liverpool’s economy and UK biotech sector.

Deal of the Week
Tines (Ireland) raises $125M Series C, becoming a unicorn.

Final Thoughts
Optimism about UK and European innovation despite economic hurdles.
Encouraging bold policy decisions and strategic AI investments.
"Let's start doing."

In this episode, Dan, Lomax, and Mads dive into a packed agenda spanning tech earnings, European venture dynamics, government policies on AI and nuclear energy, and the debate over whether Europe—or the UK—could (or should) define its own version of the “American Dream.” Mads shares insights from his recent visit to Number 10 Downing Street to discuss the UK’s AI strategy, and Lomax highlights a series of notable European health tech deals.

Welcome & Introductions
• Dan kicks things off with a check-in on what’s happening in Lisbon, London, and beyond.
• Lomax is monitoring global political drama (particularly in the U.S. and Europe).
• Mads teases big announcements out of Number 10 regarding AI.

Tech Earnings & Market Sentiment
• Palantir reports bullish earnings; stock jumps ~24%.
• Google’s cloud growth disappoints vs. analyst expectations; capital expenditures on the rise.
• AMD and ARM under the spotlight—concerns over data centre growth.
• ASML and Spotify highlight strong European tech performance.
• January inflows into European stocks reach 25-year highs, briefly outpacing US markets.

Cherry Ventures’ $500M Raise & Europe’s VC Landscape
• Cherry Ventures closes its fifth fund, demonstrating how larger European VCs continue to mature.
• Discussion on the overall trend: Big name funds attracting more capital, mirroring the U.S. “flight to quality.”

German Elections & Political Shifts
• The rise of the far-right AFD (Alternative für Deutschland) in the polls.
• Potential implications for tech talent and immigration policy.
• Broader context of populism in Europe and the struggle for pro-tech growth policies.

The UK’s Nuclear Push
• New moves to accelerate nuclear power plant approvals and the pivot to small, safe reactors.
• How nuclear energy ties in with AI (data centres needing massive, stable power sources).
• Debate over planning red tape vs. the urgency to bolster UK’s energy security and cut costs.

The Number 10 AI Plan (Mads’ Visit)
• Mads shares first-hand insights from meeting with UK government officials, including Keir Starmer.
• Adoption of Matt Clifford’s 50-point AI plan and the promise of government as an “early customer.”
• The challenge of scaling AI talent in a post-Brexit environment—and how to attract global talent.
• Pension reform, government procurement, and the push for overall efficiency gains in the public sector.

Is Europe Just an “Incubator” for the US?
• Analysis of new research suggesting fewer startups relocate to the US than expected—but those that do raise 3x more capital.
• Role of large European funds in combating early acquisitions and supporting founders to scale.
• The example of ARM and its journey from European tech champion to global powerhouse.

Trump’s Proposed US Sovereign Wealth Fund
• Contrasting with Norway’s $1.5 trillion Government Pension Fund Global and Singapore’s GIC.
• Questions around how a country with high debt (like the US) might run a sovereign wealth fund.
• Potential lessons for European nations and the risks of politicising large capital pools.

Deals of the Week
• Health Tech Highlights:
◦UK cancer detection startup See the Signs secures seed funding led by Khosla.
◦ IVF funding platform Gaia raises a strong Series A.
◦ Spanish AI imaging startup Cuban nabs a $50M Series A.
• ARM & Ampere rumour: possible acquisition to expand ARM from IP licensing into actual chip manufacturing for data centres.

Looking Ahead
• Mads: Speaking at local schools on entrepreneurship, then multiple board meetings.
• Lomax: Closing an investment in a space-tech company and working on a significant Series B funding.
• Dan: Potential trip to Finland to explore a diagnostics startup focusing on cancer in pets.

Hosts: Dan, Andrew, Mads and Lomax

The Future of Defence in Europe - Show tRump the monnaayyyy
- NATO defence spending push: Lithuania and Estonia commit to Trump's 5% target.
- Europe's over-reliance on US defence infrastructure – time to build independent capabilities?
- Startups and venture capital in defence: The next big opportunity?
- Should Europe follow the US model of defence tech innovation? Can it go private?

UK's Wonky Economic Growth Strategy
- Rachel Reeves' "turbocharging growth" plan – is it more rhetoric than reality?
- The role of the National Wealth Fund and the Office for Investment in boosting UK infrastructure.
- The Heathrow third runway debate – long overdue, too far away, or plane misguided?
- Unlocking UK pension funds for investment – real impact or just political showmanship?
- How the UK can actually foster innovation and become the "next Silicon Valley." Oxford <> Cambridge Arc.

Europe's AI and Investment Updates - Is Quantum back?!
- OpenAI launching ChatGPT Gov: What does this mean for government AI adoption?
- Apple’s position in the AI race – overlooked but strategically poised?
- 11Labs raising $250M at a $3B valuation – Europe's AI voice technology rising.
- Quantum computing’s resurgence: Alice & Bob, Quantinuum IPOs, and Europe's role.

The DeepSeek Disruption - The numbers just don't add up
- China's DeepSeek AI model making waves – is it a game-changer or just a media frenzy?
- Claims of IP infringement vs. technological innovation – how much did they really borrow? The 'distillation' woogabooga
- The efficiency leap: What cost $5 billion for OpenAI cost DeepSeek only $5 million?
- The geopolitical impact: US-China tech war escalates, export restrictions, and AI as a national security concern.
- What this means for European AI: Why wasn’t a European company leading the charge?

The Rise of Political Discontent - Young'uns want us to be like China
- 52% of Gen Z in the UK favouring dictatorship – a reflection of frustration or a dangerous trend?
- Elon Musk’s AFD rally appearance in Germany – should we be worried?
- The broader implications of political shifts on global investment and innovation.

The team close reflecting on the balance of optimism vs. realism in European tech and investment. What they're up to this week and to be more.... Merrricaan!

Thanks for tuning in! See you next week.

06:00 The Role of Startups in Defence
12:00 Pension Reforms and Investment Opportunities
18:10 AI and Innovation in Government Spending
38:24 The Urgency of AI Implementation
46:12 The Implications of DeepSeek's Innovations
57:10 Funding Trends in European AI Startups
01:02:32 Gen Z's Political Sentiments and Future Outlook

This week Dan, Lomax, and Ferdinand discuss European startup investing, focusing on the impact of AI, job cuts at Meta and what that really means, commercial changes at the head of the UK competition regulator, airport expansions mean what and for whom exactly, plus a meaningful M&A uplift in activity.

How can we not talk about Trump's first few days and knock on policies for our European landscape, the implications of Doge and the Trump Coin grift. They discuss the Stargate AI project which is just massive - if it comes off, and the innovative healthcare startup Neko.

On the show...

OpenAI Launches 'Operator'
Operator: First full-control AI agent. The Browser within the browser with full 'agent' control. Accessible only via Pro plan ($200/month). Initially US-based; European launch delayed per OpenAI CEO Sam Altman. Potential to redefine AI agents—parallels drawn with Apple’s strategic moves.

Meta Cuts 5% Workforce (3,600 Jobs)
Debate: Necessary efficiency or signs of struggle in boom times? Looks like just an AI push. Or hiding DEI and sustainability push out? The implications for AI-driven workforce restructuring are happening right now.

UK’s CMA Leadership Shakeup
New Chair: Doug Gurr (ex-Amazon). Shift from consumer protection to economic growth focus. Goal: Accelerating UK commerce. Red tape cut? Let's see.

Heathrow Expansion Resurfaces
Ministers endorse a third runway proposal. Estimated economic boost: £47bn–£143bn by 2060, with 27k new jobs. Controversies around environmental and regional impact.

European M&A Activity Rebounds
H1 2024 deal value up 31% YoY (€439 billion). Venture capital-backed M&A sees 46% growth in Q4 2024. Future outlook tied to IPO resurgence and eased regulations.

Trump’s First Days
Executive Orders galore, Biden’s rescinded. Threats of tariffs, and owning Canada. Tax breaks for US-built goods. What are the global implications and for the UK and EU economies.

DOGE(Y)
Looks bipartisan and who doesn't want more efficiency in govt? Targets $2 trillion savings by 2036 — ambitious or unachievable? And where's Vivek?

Stargate AI Project
$500 billion US investment in AI infrastructure/data centres (Texas). Partnering with Microsoft, Nvidia, Oracle, SoftBank, Arm. But exclusively serving OpenAI? No wonder Elon is fizzing.

Company of the Week: Neko the health scanning startup from Daniel Ek.
Series B closed another $260mn. Dan thinks the future of healthcare.

00:00 Introduction to European Startup Investing
02:54 Exploring AI Agents and Their Impact
05:59 Meta's Job Cuts and AI Efficiency
08:56 UK Competition Regulator Changes
11:56 Airport Expansion and Economic Growth
14:59 M&A Activity in Europe
18:11 The Influence of Trump's Policies on Europe
29:51 Bipartisan Efforts and Government Efficiency
31:39 Geopolitical Context and Market Confidence
33:42 Doge and Economic Implications
36:16 The Rise of Trump Coin
40:11 Stargate AI Project: A New Era
47:55 Neko's Series B and the Future of Healthcare

In this episode, we dive into the future of London's IPO pipeline, the UK's ambitious AI opportunities action plan, and Colossal Biosciences' fascinating mission to resurrect extinct species like the woolly mammoth. We also explore the role of white hydrogen as a potential energy frontier and discuss Europe's rising share in global tech value. From market insights to groundbreaking technologies, this episode has something for everyone.

Key Topics

London’s IPO Revival

• 2024 marked the worst year for London IPOs, even below 2009 levels.
• Analysing the pipeline for 2025, featuring companies like Shein, Starling Bank, Zopa, and Ebury.
• Challenges: Lack of startups scaling to IPO status and low appetite for equities among pension investors.
• Historical context: 136 IPOs in 2014 vs. 6 in 2024.

The UK’s AI Opportunities Action Plan

• Highlights of the government’s action plan for AI growth.
• Focus on scaling pilots nationally and creating datasets leveraging institutions like the BBC for data.
• Challenges: Addressing copyright rules, data funding, and fostering founder-friendly ecosystems.
• Insight on talent, funding, and tax hurdles.

Company of the Week: Colossal Biosciences

• The mission to bring back the woolly mammoth, Tasmanian tiger, and dodo bird using CRISPR gene-editing technology.
• Ethical and practical questions surrounding de-extinction and re-wilding.
• Implications for biodiversity and conservation.

A New Energy Frontier? White Hydrogen

• Could this be the next renewables frontier for startups?
• Exploring naturally occurring, renewable white hydrogen as a power source.
• Challenges in storage, transportation, and extraction.
• Potential game-changer in the global energy mix if scalable solutions emerge.

European Tech Growth

• Europe’s increasing share of global tech value, now at 18-19%. Up from 5% three decades ago.
• Insights from CEO Yoram Wijngaarde and Dealroom’s data on tech enterprise value creation since the 1990s.

Keywords
IPOs, London, AI Opportunities, Venture Capital, Regulatory Challenges, Tech Ecosystem, Government Policy, Investment, Infrastructure, Innovation, economic challenges, woolly mammoth, hydrogen energy, energy innovations, European tech, deep tech investment, political impact on technology

AI Summary
In this conversation, Dan, Mads and Andrew discuss the current state of IPOs in London, the challenges and opportunities within the regulatory framework, and the ambitious AI Opportunities Action Plan led by Keir Starmer. They emphasise the importance of government support, access to talent, and the need for a robust infrastructure to foster innovation in the UK tech ecosystem. The discussion highlights the necessity for policy changes to attract founders and investment, ultimately aiming to position the UK as a leader in AI and technology. In this conversation, the speakers discuss various innovative solutions to economic challenges, including the Mansion House compact and the need for a talent magnet in the UK. They explore the exciting yet controversial project of reviving extinct species like the woolly mammoth through gene editing. The discussion shifts to the potential of hydrogen as a clean energy source, addressing its challenges and the need for strategic investment in energy. The speakers also highlight the growing tech landscape in Europe and the importance of deep tech investment, while reflecting on the political changes that may impact technology and innovation.

In this insightful episode, Dan, Mads, and Lomax tackle some of the most pressing topics in tech, venture capital, and global business, diving into issues like Europe's chip dependency, the evolving role of AI in VC, the future of social media moderation, and the rising stars in the European startup scene.

Europe’s Semiconductor Struggles
The problem: Europe's lag in semiconductor production compared to global competitors like the US and China. 
Key insights: Germany's halted Intel plant and Europe’s high energy costs exacerbate its strategic vulnerability. Lack of coordinated funding—only €4 billion from Brussels compared to $142 billion in China.

The Role of AI in Venture Capital
Future of VC: Will AI become a co-pilot, augmenting human decision-making, or could we see fully automated "Quant VC"? 
Predictions: AI can streamline processes like sourcing and due diligence. Human interaction remains crucial for founder evaluation and post-investment support.

Social Media, Free Speech, and Moderation
Meta’s Shift: Meta moves away from fact-checking in favour of community notes in the US but not the EU due to stricter regulations. Broader themes: The challenges of moderating social platforms in a way that balances free speech with preventing harm.

European Startups and Unicorns
Positive trends: Europe saw 13 new unicorns in 2024, doubling from the previous year. Highlights include: Diverse representation: Companies from across sectors and countries. Notable names: Kraken (Octopus Energy's SaaS platform) and Bending Spoons (creative suite apps). 

Government’s Role in Venture Capital
Debate: Should government funding for startups taper off as private markets mature? Key takeaways: Europe needs institutional capital to match the US. Government initiatives like the British Business Bank’s Enterprise Capital Fund have shown positive results. 

NVIDIA and the Future of Computing
Jensen Huang’s unveiling of Digits, a $3,000 AI supercomputer for developers. 
Discussion on Moore’s Law breaking down and NVIDIA’s innovative approach to integrated computing systems.

Closing Thoughts
The evolving tech and VC landscape demands adaptability from all players. 
Europe must focus on creating favourable conditions for founders to build globally competitive startups. Excitement for 2025 as AI and foundational tech continue to reshape industries.

With Hosts
Dan: The optimist, ready to embrace AI's potential in VC.  
Lomax: The realist, emphasising the importance of human connection and strategy.  
Mads: The strategist, diving deep into the broader implications of industry trends.  

00:00 Introduction and Podcast Overview
06:13 Intel's Challenges and European Dependency
12:01 The Evolution of Free Speech on Social Media
18:05 Anthropic's Growth and Valuation in AI
32:26 The Future of Open Source and AI Funding
39:36 Government's Role in Venture Capital
53:56 Success Stories in the UK Startup Scene

Tune in next week for more insights into the world of tech, startups, and European venture capital! 

Overview: In this episode of Upside, hosts Dan Bowyer and Mads Jensen, along with guests Andrew Scott and Lomax Ward, delve into their 8 bold predictions for 2025. 

Covering everything from AI and space tech to geopolitical tensions and venture capital trends, they unpack what’s on the horizon for tech, business, and venture in Europe and beyond.

2025 Predictions and Discussions:

1. Apple will win AI
2. Open AI will be dethroned 
3. Conflict with China
4. Defence Tech will boom
5. EU and UK will wake up and focus sovereign control on AI, Quantum and Space  
6. Space tech will really lift off 
7. US heads into recession 
8. M&A up IPOs up

00:00 Introduction to Upside and the Future of AI
02:46 Apple's Potential win in Consumer AI
06:11 OpenAI dethroned? Leadership and Future Challenges
11:49 China, geopolitical Implications of AI and Defence
23:52 Defence Tech Investment will boom
31:17 Hardware isn't always bad for VCs
32:14 UK and EU Sovereign Control and Technological Progress in 2025
33:39 The Importance of AI, Quantum Computing and Space to Europe
35:36 Space Tech really lifts off in 2025
38:26 Space Manufacturing and 'Why' Exploration
42:17 Timings and Market Predictions
51:33 The State of European Venture Capital
54:26 VC and the Role of Technology in Economic Growth
57:15 M&A and IPO Predictions for 2025

Key Topics Discussed:

Apple’s AI Strategy
Dan predicts Apple will dominate consumer AI by leveraging its ecosystem, resources, and loyal fan base. Mads questions whether Apple has lost its innovation edge and explores what "winning" consumer AI means.

OpenAI's Future
OpenAI faces challenges as competitors like Google, Anthropic, and XAI push forward. The panel discusses leadership struggles, funding needs, and the possibility of new technologies dethroning OpenAI.

Geopolitics and Defence
The impact of China's ambitions toward Taiwan and the West’s response. Defence tech as a booming sector, with increased NATO spending and opportunities in dual-use technologies.

Space Tech Expansion
Investment in space technologies continues, focusing on communication, defence, and manufacturing. The challenges of scaling space ventures and predictions for a more affordable and accessible space economy.

Economic Outlook for 2025
US economic trends point to a possible mild recession, while Europe faces stagnation due to political and economic challenges. Insights into concentrated stock markets, corporate performance, and venture investment trends.

M&A and IPO Resurgence
Pent-up demand for M&A deals and a likely reopening of the IPO market in 2025, with companies like Klarna leading the charge.

The European Venture Landscape
Challenges in scaling European startups and the need for founders to integrate US business DNA early. Calls for greater ambition to build trillion-dollar companies and reinvigorate Europe’s industrial base.

Memorable Quotes:

Dan Bowyer: “Apple’s ecosystem gives it a fighting chance to become the de facto standard for consumer AI.”

Mads Jensen: “Europe needs to back great founders and rebuild its industrial base.”

Andrew Scott: “Space tech is the future, but timing is everything. A lot of startups will fail before the sector truly takes off.”

Closing Thoughts:
The panel concludes with their personal focus areas for 2025, emphasising a love for early-stage European founders, the need for industrial reinvention, and how we can push boundaries in venture capital.

In this episode we review significant events of 2024, focusing on the rise of AI, the challenges Europe faces in building its own AI infrastructure, and the political and economic landscape shaped by the recent elections. We chat venture capital trends, the impact of geopolitical shifts in the Middle East, and the future of TikTok amid national security concerns. 

• Altman and Musk face off while Elon builds Colossus.
• The AI war heats up in big tech 
• Is Labour competent enough to build business in Britain?
• Should Europe build chips?
• The Bitcoin Act.
• Will Trump Switch us off?
• The Trump sugar high. Coming to Europe?
• Will TikTok go down to Chinatown?
• More M&A means more business, recycling, investment
• Agentic workflows to impact the Enterprise
• More IPOs in 2025.
• The geopolitical landscape in the Middle East & implications for us all.
• 2024 inc VC was volatile but performed well. How?

00:00 2024: The Year of AI Ascendancy - Musk builds Colossus.
05:48 Europe's AI Infrastructure Challenge
12:12 Political Landscape and Economic Predictions
18:03 Venture Capital Trends in 2024
24:02 Geopolitical Shifts in the Middle East
29:58 The Future of TikTok and National Security
35:58 Looking Ahead: Startups and IPOs in 2025

Mads and I chatting this week about all things VC, investing, startup affecting Europe,

• Can the UK govt really think like a startup? Should it?
• The British DOGE.
• No one in the Labour govt has ever run a business. Matter?
• Why China's downturn will batter Europe.
• The European brain drain - is it real?
• Freedom of movement, is it coming back?
• Quantum is here, or is it.
• The old guards are coming out to solve Quantum.
• Can startups survive red ocean? If so how?
• Execution vs Novel.
• European startup of the week - Stegra.
• Why green steel is so important.

We're in a studio this week, sounding joojie. Mads and I discussing this week's news, views and thoughts around Europe, startup, and investing. What's moving the needle, what's not, and why.

The Decline of Europe’s Automotive Industry
◦ The shift from internal combustion engines (ICE) to electric vehicles (EVs).
◦ Why Chinese automakers are dominating global markets.
◦ Can Europe recover, or is the industry destined for slow decline?

Trillion-Dollar Companies: Can Europe Compete?
◦ Why Europe has yet to produce a trillion-dollar company.
◦ Strategic importance of big tech companies for economic growth and national influence.
◦ Key sectors that could drive Europe's first trillion-dollar success: biopharma, quantum technology, and energy.

China vs. the US: The Resource War
◦ The implications of China restricting exports of critical metals like gallium and germanium.
◦ How this trade war impacts Europe and global supply chains.
◦ The importance of resource independence and domestic production.

The AI Cage Match: Elon Musk vs. Sam Altman
◦ The history of OpenAI, its pivot to a for-profit model, and Musk’s fallout.
◦ The rise of XAI and the battle for AI supremacy.
◦ Will Nvidia face real competition in the AI chip market?

Founder Corner: The Psychology of Founders
◦Insights into founder breakups and the challenges of building a startup.
◦How Europe’s culture of risk aversion may hinder innovation.
◦The importance of supporting founders to build resilient, long-term businesses.

Bitcoin and Morality
◦A heated debate about the ethics of Bitcoin and its role in the economy.
◦Speculation, regulation, and the future of cryptocurrencies.
◦Does Bitcoin represent humanity’s worst impulses, or is it a driver of innovation?