The theme this week on the Retirement Quick Tips Podcast is mid-year commentary & outlook. 

Today, I’m talking about the Mid-Year Update for the US economy. I am recording today’s episode 1 day before GDP figures are released for the 2nd quarter, but if I were a betting woman, I would put money on the US economy already being in a recession. 

By the time you listen to this episode, I’ll have either been proven right or wrong, but I think that the U.S. economy is already in a recession, which is defined as a business cycle contraction and a general decline in economic activity. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth are required for an official recession. 

GDP growth was already negative in the first quarter of 2022, so I’m holding my breath to see if that decline continues with this current quarter ending in June, which would officially put the U.S. economy in a recession.

There are many reasons to be optimistic that an upcoming recession could be mild and short-lived, but I think it will be still be painful for many Americans, since the Fed is going to have less options to inject monetary stimulus into the economy to stabilize a downturn. 

Remember the massive stimulus intended to save the economy in 2008 (i.e. QE, tax cuts, and TARP) and in 2020 (CARES Act, PPP, etc.)? The U.S. government and the Fed don’t have these tools in their toolbox in 2022, because any additional stimulus would counteract efforts to reduce inflation, which will still take a while to abate even if we are already in a recession. 

And if you’re wondering what to do about all of this, tune in tomorrow, where I’ll share with you how to prepare your investment portfolio for possibly worse to come. 

That’s it for today. Thanks for listening! My name is Ashley Micciche and this is the Retirement Quick Tips podcast. 

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