Monday 25th March 2019

The yield curve for 3 month and 10 year US treasuries inverted for the first time since 2007. The markets seem a little spooked, with big falls in equities in the US on Friday. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether this does mean a US recession is imminent or is it “different this time”? They also look at the latest Brexit confusion. With the EU granting a two week stay of execution there’s some question as to whether the Tory government will use that time to replace their leader – perhaps not the most constructive step when time is short. Plus the latest evidence that the downturn in Germany might not be as short lived as had been hoped.