Pokrovsk remains one of the hottest sectors across the front in Ukraine. This is an area of focus for the Russian military for well over a year now and while they are slowly advancing, it’s coming at a shocking cost of men and equipment.
To better understand the situation in that direction, we’re joined today by COL Volodymyr Polevyi, the head of communications for the 7th Rapid Response Corps of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. That’s the unit responsible for holding this area of the front.
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So overnight a flamingo visited Russia. Not the pink bird kind but the missile kind. It’s the FP-5, Ukraine’s new domestically manufactured cruise missile. The fact that it made it to a target 1,000km away led some in Russia to ask, if we can’t stop this thing, what chance do we stand against NATO?
Sources:
https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/19444
https://t.me/bomber_fighter/25528
https://t.me/roy_tv_mk/20620
https://t.me/milinfolive/173982
https://t.me/dva_majors/94334
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I don’t think people fully understand how big of a problem Russia is facing right now. It's been a while since I’ve seen this many Russian commentators and analysts worried about the same issue: logistics. They’re not getting to the front. As one milblogger put it, “The situation is worsening every week” While others complained that now is the time to actually start the real war and even questioning whether Putin actually understands the situation at the front. Because surely if he did, these problems would be resolved. But they’re not, and the path to isolating Crimea and the southern occupied territories is becoming clear.
Logistics are boring, I get it. But if you can’t secure your supply lines, you can’t hold terrain. Which means this ‘little problem’ Russia is dealing with, actually threatens the entire war effort.
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A deal has been right around the corner for about two months while the entire region remains on edge. This weekend, we even saw a resumption of military strikes between Israel and Iran, making it seem like a return to war might happen before an actual peace deal.
To better understand this situation, we’re joined today by Jonathan Hackett. Jonathan is a retired U.S. Marine interrogator, counterintelligence agent, and special operations intelligence officer and he recently authored a book titled “Iran’s Shadow Weapons” where he dives into how the Iranian regime is driven by a mixture of paranoid, greed and cold rationality.
Find Jonathan's newest book here: https://www.amazon.com/Irans-Shadow-Weapons-Intelligence-Unconventional/dp/1476696934/
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So Ukraine has now visually confirmed more than 100,000 Russian soldiers killed or wounded by the Unmanned Systems Forces over the past year. That’s wild but even crazier is that Ukraine is on track to triple that over the next 12 months.

And if that comes to fruition it’s hard to see Russia continuing. I mean they have a lot of manpower but 300k+ losses a year is a tough pill to swallow for any country, but that’s where we are right now.

SBS video 100k: ⁠https://x.com/414magyarbirds/status/2062937571429429735/video/1⁠

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The Iran war turned hot again overnight as Tehran launched more than 20 ballistic missiles at Israel in response to IDF strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon. While President Trump urged restraint, Israel went ahead with their retaliation, hitting targets across Iran prompting a warning from the IRGC that all regional energy infrastructure may now be targeted. Also, the Houthis are back in. They launched missiles at Israel and have now partially shut down the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait.
Sources:
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-fires-missiles-at-israel-after-israeli-airstrike-on-beirut-a93b4da7?mod=WSJ_home_mediumtopper_pos_1
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/israel-will-stop-its-attacks-on-iran-keep-fighting-hezbollah-sense-is-that-this-round-of-fighting-is-behind-us-officials/
https://iran.liveuamap.com/
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Russia is starting to adapt and respond to their logistics being cut off in the south.
It’s effectively a race right now between Ukrainian drone production and Russian air defense innovation. In the past 24 hours we’ve seen some new offensive and defensive measures taken all across the front as Russia works to staunch the bleeding in this so far very effective Ukrainian middle strike campaign.
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So Russia is really in a tough spot right now. I’m trying to stay grounded and not exaggerate what’s happening here but we’re in the midst of some serious change and it’s the Russians themselves that are sounding the alarm. On top of that we just got news that Ukraine is leveraging US satellite imagery for near real time targeting. The next few weeks will be interesting.
Sources:
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/real-time-satellite-intel-is-making-ukraines-drone-strikes-deadlier-than-ever-8c2c909c
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c707098wkzpo
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Ukraine just offered Russia a path to end the war, saying effectively ‘we can do this the easy way, or the hard way’. While I wouldn’t expect Putin to agree to this, it shows something that’s being picked up in Russian media: for the first time in the war, Ukraine would be entering negotiations from a position of strength and could demand more than ever before. Again, not my words, but Russia’s.
But also great timing for the first Ukraine aid package to pass the US House of Representatives in two years, more on that at the end of today’s video.
Sources:
https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/vidkritij-list-prezidentu-rosijskoyi-federaciyi-vid-preziden-104769
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/04/us/politics/house-ukraine-aid-russia-republicans.html
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So Iran’s strategy in this war is to outlast the United States, and honestly, I think it’s working. President Trump keeps threatening Iran that if they don’t agree to terms, we’ll restart the bombing. That’s presented as US leverage over the IRGC to come to the table. But what if Iranian leadership sees it the other way around believing that Trump wants, even needs, an end to the war more than they do? This shift might give us an idea to the Iranian strategy playing out right now and in turn, what to watch for and what to expect going forward.
Sources:
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/iran-cease-fire-israel-donald-trump-hezbollah-d91122ac?mod=hp_opin_pos_3
https://www.wsj.com/politics/gop-led-house-votes-to-limit-trumps-iran-war-powers-3d9d0fac?mod=trending_now_news_4
https://x.com/MattWalshBlog/status/2061513324429185315?s=20
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