War & Conflict with Preston Stewart

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So the United States says we will not be returning to large scale kinetic operations in Iran anytime soon as we wait for the economic pressure to “collapse the regime.” But here’s the thing, that might actually prompt the return to fighting President Trump is hoping to avoid.
See, while Iran is certainly feeling the impact of the blockade and sanctions, hardliners in the regime are arguing that the time to strike is now. Force the US to an actual agreement before the economic situation deteriorates even further.
Sources:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/20/world/europe/trump-iran-economy-sanctions-threats.html
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-treasury-secretary-bessent-hold-press-conference-iran-on-monday-2026-08-20/
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/trump-iran-economy-sanctions-hormuz-b3036190.html
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/08/18/there-no-breaking-point-problem-with-trumps-plan-teconomically-strangle-iran-01040781
https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2026-08-21/trump-warns-of-economic-d-day-against-iran-but-tehran-is-well-acquainted-with-sanctions
https://x.com/RZimmt/status/2090781942107066794?s=20
https://x.com/HamidRezaAz/status/2090781076159406330?s=20
https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2090792770755506197?s=20
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So Ukraine is out of Patriot missile interceptors and Russia is ramping up missile production. That’s a problem, to say the least and I don’t think it’s a stretch to say this is the biggest issue facing Ukraine today.
This dynamic isn’t anything new and overnight we saw again how Russian missiles are largely unchallenged in the Ukrainian skies.
Sources:
https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/17/europe/ukraine-patriot-missile-launchers-run-dry-intl
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-11/ukraine-stops-reporting-russia-missile-data-as-defenses-struggle
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/aug/14/patriot-missiles-ukraine-putin-kyiv-running-out-nato-danger
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/interview/d-1786341590.html
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So we’ve got a new strategy with Iran: no more talks, just wait them out.
Iran meanwhile is taking a different approach threatening to go on the offensive if the blockade isn’t lifted soon with one analyst saying “There is also a widespread view in Iran that the main war has not yet begun.”
Sources:
https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/18/politics/iran-war-trump-halt-talks
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-contradicts-adviser-jared-kushner-on-iran-where-talks-stand-12338008
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-plan-escalate-war-cc657664?st=RXaQT6
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/08/18/pentagon-evaluating-smaller-us-military-presence-persian-gulf-after-iran-war/
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/irans-attacks-on-ships-in-hormuz-pile-up-testing-u-s-military-restraint-6ff9f5dd?mod=middle-east_news_article_pos3
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Interview with soldiers in the south: https://youtu.be/l74r1s8y7uY
Senior officials are sounding the alarm in Russia, with a chief economist saying "We won't win the competition in this war of attrition. We're under the illusion that everything In Ukraine will collapse. It hasn't, and it won't. Our costs are mounting."
Now he was fired two days after this speech was made public, so let’s get into what he said and what’s looking like major problems headed Russia’s way in the near term.
Sources:
https://ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/08/14/vglavnom-gosbanke-kremlya-sprognozirovali-porazhenie-rossii-vekonomicheskoi-voine-naistoschenie-szapadom-a203552
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/08/17/veb-chief-economist-fired-after-warning-russia-cannot-win-war-of-attrition-the-bell-a93513
https://t.me/roy_tv_mk/21591
https://t.me/swodki/611730
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A few days ago we learned that Ukraine had been conducting a major counteroffensive in the south over the last few months. Those operations, combined, led to over 745 sq km cleared and 26 villages returned to Ukrainian control. Part of the reason for that success is that it was kept secret. Clearance after clearance went off without a public mention from the Ukrainian military.
Today we’re joined by two soldiers that took part in some of those operations. Rojhat and SOUPS are team leaders in the Black Talon Group, an organization fighting in the Ukrainian SSO or Special Operations Forces. We focus on some of their close quarters tactics. How they go about clearing buildings when they know Russians are inside, challenges of infil and exfil and a crazy story about a recent MEDEVAC that goes to show that the ‘golden hour’ really isn’t a thing in this war.
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So Russia just rolled out some pretty impressive new technology and it sort of worked then didn’t.

It’s a new drone defense system, the Arena M, and it sounds like it may have perfectly intercepted some Ukrainian drones flying at Russian tanks. Problem is, they were facing hundreds and the system was overwhelmed.
Sources:
https://t.me/feniksdpsu/2188
https://t.me/azov_brigade_ngu/1676
https://x.com/kriegsforscherD/status/2086165753917509724?s=20
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/221592
https://t.me/milinfolive/177376
https://t.me/swodki/606694
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So Russia has now responded to Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the south.
They said no.
It’s a bold choice. And if this is how they actually plan to proceed, it’s going to make things much more difficult for the Russian military.
Now as a refresher. Two days ago news came out that Ukraine had been conducting a major operation in the southern direction since January.
They’d keep a lid on the news and over the course of seven months, liberated 26 settlements and took back over 745 square kilometers.
Sources:
https://t.me/rybar/82439
https://t.me/voin_dv/20675
https://t.me/rybar/82440
https://t.me/skala425/963
https://t.me/ua_dshv/8563
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Today’s guest is Harrison Mann, a former U.S. Army major and executive officer of the Defense Intelligence Agency's Middle East/Africa Regional Center who resigned in protest at his office's support for Israel's war in Gaza. We talk about the Minab school strike in Iran, where that investigation stands right now and the impact this has on the perception of the US military at home and abroad.
You can follow Harrison and his work at the links below:
https://x.com/Harrison_J_Mann
https://www.instagram.com/harrison_j_mann/?hl=en
https://substack.com/@harrisonmann
https://aboutfaceveterans.org/
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Ukraine just quietly took back over 700 sq km of territory that Russia had claimed over the last year. Here’s the deal: Russia kept making the same mistake so Ukraine took advantage of it. In turn, nearly all of Russia’s gains in the eastern Zaporizhia direction in 2026 have been wiped out. Back to square one.
Sources:
https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/2087533010354618868?s=20
https://t.me/si4eslavskabrygada/2533
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Russia has a manpower shortage in Ukraine. It’s not that they’re running out of people, far from it. They’re running out of people they want to fight the war. The undesirables. The second class citizens, prisoners and folks that to be blunt, the Kremlin just doesn’t care that much about.
And as that group gets smaller and smaller, it becomes increasingly likely that we’re going to see a forced mobilization in Russia where citizens are pressed into service and sent to the front.
Sources:
https://archive.is/20260810134149/https://www.ft.com/content/45289802-848f-4fa6-9769-6971b4b69bcc
https://warontherocks.com/a-return-to-mass-russian-force-expansion-in-the-war-with-ukraine/
https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/the-kremlin-is-bullying-more-russians-into-fighting-in-ukraine-3d1af6d7
https://t.me/dshrg2/5395
https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/20369
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