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Today we're looking into a few updates in Ukraine. Over the last few days we've seen an uptick in Ukrainian middle-range strike operations that took out logistics, air defense and now an FSB office in Donetsk. Meanwhile, Russian forces are steadily pushing forward in the east and the Sloviansk area is starting to get squeezed.

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Iran just dug in by mining the Strait of Hormuz. With peace talks not making any progress this looks like they're making moves to hold the strategic waterway for the foreseeable future. This comes as additional US forces have entered the region and proponents of the war suggest we ramp up strikes to bring Iran to the negotiating table.

Sources:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/04/22/trump-best-move-iran-negotiations/

https://www.axios.com/2026/04/23/iran-strait-hormuz-mines-trump

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/04/22/iran-hormuz-mines/

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/air-war-in-iran-gives-way-to-crippling-stalemate-in-hormuz-4f083808?mod=trending_now_news_3

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Today we're joined by Michael Kofman to discuss the current status of the war in Ukraine. Mike is a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a contributing editor at War on the Rocks, where he hosts the Russia Contingency, a bi-weekly podcast on the Russian military and the Russia-Ukraine war. You can follow his work at the links below.

https://x.com/KofmanMichael

https://carnegieendowment.org/people/michael-kofman

https://warontherocks.com/premium/therussiacontingency/

Ukraine truck fundraiser: https://car4ukraine.com/campaigns/preston-stewart-spring-offensive

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Earlier today the IRGC opened fire on three vessels moving through the Strait of Hormuz and then seized two of them. Now we wait to see the US reaction and how this will impact the possibility of ongoing talks. Meanwhile, there's mixed reporting on the number of Iranian vessels that have successfully evaded the US blockade with different assessments from the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Lloyd's List and Fox News.

Sources:

https://www.axios.com/2026/04/22/trump-iran-war-power-struggle-ceasefire

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-war-israel-us-strait-hormuz-2026/card/iran-dark-fleet-vessels-slip-through-blockade-FOA0FJA3PNxMk8IrHwAV?st=pqStue&reflink=article_copyURL_share

https://gcaptain.com/three-vessels-hit-by-gunfire-in-strait-of-hormuz-crews-safe/

https://www.ft.com/content/21dff2c7-1e27-4f74-81d8-31dcdbe9188e?sharetype=blocked

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Go to https://ground.news/preston to get 40% off the unlimited access Vantage plan, bringing it down to just $5/month.

https://docs.house.gov/meetings/AS/AS26/20260416/119162/HHRG-119-AS26-Wstate-AdamsJ-20260416.pdf

https://apnews.com/article/us-iran-war-israel-hormuz-19-april-2026-0a637f98d588930f195f61cffe07d4f3

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Today we're looking at some new Ukrainian sanctions packages that hit the Tuapse oil facility overnight. This is one of Russia's ten largest facilities in the country and prompted concern among some military reporters that these areas are still less protected than hoped. We also have some Russian commentary about how their army is in worse shape now than 2023 and why soldiers aren't signing up to fight like they used to.

Sources:

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/74287

https://x.com/usf_army/status/2046178242793488445?s=20

https://t.me/milinfolive/170809

https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/71887

https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/71852

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The US just announced that we fired upon and boarded an Iranian vessel that tried to break the blockade. This comes as talks seem less and less likely to materialize before the end of the ceasefire suggesting a return to open hostilities is probably what comes next.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/04/18/iran-strait-hormuz-us-oil/

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/18/us/politics/iran-hormuz-strait-trump.html

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Today we're chatting with Rob Lee and Dmytro Putiata about the Russian Drone Wall concept rolled out in 2025. These two are an incredible wealth of knowledge and have recently started up a joint publication sharing their insights on the war.

Be sure to follow Rob and Dima's work on Substack: https://twomarines.substack.com/

Rob on X: https://x.com/RALee85

Dima on X: https://x.com/kriegsforscherD

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Today we're looking into the chaos that is the Iran war. Just yesterday we heard that the Strait was open, that Iran had agreed to all US demands and more. But what's happening on the ground is telling a different story. It looks like Iran has reasserted control over the Strait and it's hard to say negotiations are on track as the next round of talks isn't yet scheduled. On top of that, the US decided to lift sanctions on Russian oil for another few weeks.

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Today we're joined by the EU's Commissioner of Enlargement Marta Kos. We talk about how the elections in Hungary change the EU and affect Ukraine in the near term. This includes a 90B Euro loan that's set to be delivered here in the near term.

Thank you so much to the Commissioner Kos and the EU communications team for helping to set this up!

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