The United States has warned Israel that big strikes on Iran are coming soon likely against Pickaxe Mountain a facility where, according to new intelligence, Iran recently moved a significant portion of their nuclear enrichment capability underground. Iran for their part says an operation is ready to go that would result in a day of mourning for the United States.
Sources:
Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/episode/1YBOqde9cxv57D9aB0asAO?si=17c57e6375744512

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-u-s-will-bomb-irans-power-plants-bridges-if-tehran-strikes-ships-7db7e165?mod=hp_lead_pos1

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-believes-iran-moved-nuclear-centrifuges-into-pickaxe-mountain-d29d21c0?mod=mhp

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/us-said-to-update-israel-on-plans-to-intensify-iran-offensive-in-coming-days-bomb-pickaxe-mountain/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/07/20/us-strikes-unlikely-move-iran-intelligence-reports-say/

https://x.com/mb_ghalibaf/status/2079980825672651246?s=20
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One strike and billions of dollars worth of damage. I’m sure that’s just what the Russian economy needs right now. For the second time in four days, Ukraine has targeted Russian Wildberries logistics facilities and in addition to producing some wild footage, it’s a pretty clever way to add pressure to the Putin regime to end the war.
Sources:
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/80805
https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/2079864149241139457?s=20
https://t.me/roy_tv_mk/21200
https://t.me/rybar_in_english/32885
https://t.me/romanov_92/54883
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A Russian politician decided to announce that the roads in his area through the occupied territories was secured by the Russian Armed Forces. It isn't. Ukraine's Middle Strike campaign continues to cause significant disruptions not just to live in Crimea, but to the resupply of troops at the front.
Sources:
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gvpv3ewv2o
https://t.me/officer_on_the_front2/15386
https://t.me/rybar_in_english/32848
https://t.me/dva_majors/96374
https://t.me/usf_army/2221
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The United States is ramping up combat operations in Iran but things might look a little different this time. A US official just stated, “We do not have enough (air defense and long range munitions) to safely sustain operations” Additionally, Yemen based Houthis have now joined the conflict. Earlier today they announced a blockade of Saudi Arabia, effective immediately. And last night, the Iranian backed Shiite militias across Iraq and Syria warned that they will begin targeting US bases in the region if American strikes in Iran continue.
WashPo Article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/07/19/us-teeters-return-all-out-war-with-iran-after-more-troops-killed/
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So once again the skies of Moscow have turned black as Ukrainian drones struck home. What you’re seeing here is a Wildberries logistics center going up in flames leading one Russian analyst to say, “Given Russia's difficult economic situation right now, the consequences will be significant.”
Sources:
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/comment/another-tu-95-hit-after-operation-spiderweb-1784302137.html
https://t.me/kpszsu/69144
https://t.me/skala425/931
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Iranian missiles have struck a US base in Jordan for at least the second time this week amid reports of multiple US casualties. As of now, we have no reports from US Central Command or the Pentagon. I wouldn’t read much into that. Based on FIRMS data, it appears the firefighting effort may still be ongoing so any casualty notifications would be premature before the situation there is under control. This comes as strikes intensify between the US and Iran as the war appears to be back in full swing.
Sources:
https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-trump-strait-of-hormuz-attacks-persian-gulf/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2026/07/18/trump-iran-strikes-bridge-bandar-abbas/?ICID=continue_without_subscribing_reg_first
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-renews-attacks-gulf-states-after-another-night-us-strikes-2026-07-18/
https://x.com/prestonstew_/status/2078490183473738082?s=20
https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/2078293429830775271?s=20
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Russia is facing a manpower issue as Ukraine continues to take more soldiers off the battlefield than they are bringing in through recruiting. Two military bloggers are referring to this as a "meat grinder" and "a conveyor belt of losses". The unique aspect here is that Russia has the ability to backfill this but it will likely require mobilization, something that seems increasingly likely in the coming months.
Sources:
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/80261
https://www.csis.org/analysis/russian-blood-and-treasure-ballooning-costs-putins-war
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It looks like ground operations are back on the table in Iran.
The United States just began a new wave of strikes against Iran, marking the sixth consecutive day of combat operations but there’s no indication a few more air strikes is going to force an Iranian surrender.
In turn, we have new reporting that President Trump is considering a few different options that would could really ratchet up the pressure.
Sources:
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-leans-toward-expanding-u-s-military-operations-in-iran-6c230462
https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/what-to-know-about-pickaxe-mountain
https://x.com/prestonstew_/status/2077072276701290920?s=20
https://en.irna.ir/news/86210772/Iran-warns-US-of-targeting-all-infrastructures-in-region
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In a shocking move, the popular, but more importantly, highly successful Ukrainian Defense Minister Federov was removed from his post yesterday. This prompted pretty significant pushback and today we’re seeing Ukrainians take to the streets to protest this surprising move.
Today we’re joined by Kateryna Lisunova to discuss what happened and what this means.
Kateryna is a journalist at Razom for Ukraine who has the contacts and background to understand what exactly is playing out here.
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https://www.linkedin.com/in/kateryna-lisunova-312584133/
https://www.instagram.com/kateryna_lisunova_ua/?hl=en
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The situation for Russia in Crimea is spiraling. Gas is $17 a gallon, if you can find it. Some areas are without water, there are rolling electrical blackouts and the trucks set up to protect fuel convoys from Ukrainian drones, are running out of gas.
In fact the complaints are piling up on Russian Telegram channels. The citizens are livid, the milbloggers are dooming and the Russian government, from what we can tell, seems unable to stop these Ukrainian strikes. For Russia, the situation in the south is getting bad, fast.
Sources:
https://x.com/414magyarbirds/status/2077267966387687450?s=20
https://t.me/strelkovii/7509
https://t.me/romanov_92/54748
https://t.me/atesh_ua/10703
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