War & Conflict with Preston Stewart

Today we're joined by Dara Massicot. Dara is a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace where her work focuses on defense and security issues and she’s just back from a research trip to the front lines in Ukraine.
We get into the varying targets for Ukrainian strikes, how they coordinate efforts at that depth, major issues facing the two countries for the rest of the year and more.
Follow Dara at the links below:
https://carnegieendowment.org/people/dara-massicot
https://x.com/MassDara
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Check out the doc on Ryan here: https://youtu.be/BDmUPUTQ7ms?si=YRpMbDS2I11797IO
Ukraine just struck a target more than 2,000km inside of Russian territory. That’s 1,242 miles for my fellow Americans which means roughly the distance from New York City to Miami Florida.
These deep strikes, especially those against refineries, are causing a fuel shortage in Russia. Despite Russian efforts to slow the bleed, we are still seeing videos of citizens lined up at the pump hoping the gas station doesn’t run out before they can fill up. And it’s worse in the occupied territories meaning that military transport along the southern land bridge is facing new challenges in keeping the front supplied.
Sources:
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/81805
https://t.me/rybar_in_english/33373
https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/ukraine-set-to-receive-70-atacms-and-12-m270-launchers-from-turkey-in-280-million-arms-deal-21502
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It’s looking more and more that we’ve reached an impasse in Iran.
Trump will not accept Iran's newest terms as that would signal a clear US defeat. However, a significant escalation to change the dynamics also seems unlikely. That leaves us with how things sit today: Iran with de-facto control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Sanctions will stay in place and economic relief won't be granted, but real nuclear negotiations probably won't come together anytime soon.
Now President Trump remains optimistic just a few hours ago stating "It will work out. It always works out.”
Sources:
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-strait-of-hormuz-opening-iran-negotiations-b6a43ad6?mod=trending_now_news_4
https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/07/politics/general-dan-caine-off-ramp-iran-war
https://www.axios.com/2026/08/09/trump-iran-interview
https://www.reuters.com/world/what-is-patriot-missile-system-why-are-supplies-depleted-worldwide-2026-08-07/
https://fortune.com/2026/08/08/iran-economic-collapse-us-naval-blockade-hormuz-sanctions-relief/
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Nearly 31,000 Russian soldiers were killed or seriously wounded in July marking the fifth month this year where Russia lost more men than they were able to recruit.
Those losses are adding up and have led to a change in a US intelligence assessment that now believes, that because of the mounting challenges in Ukraine, Putin may try to directly test NATO in the near future. In fact, Russian hybrid warfare is already underway and just this week an explosive laden drone was found next to a Ukrainian plane parked at a German airport in what local officials referred to as an attempted act of Russian terrorism.
Sources:
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/u-s-intel-links-russia-to-explosive-drone-at-german-airport-8a69a823
https://www.reuters.com/world/germanys-security-council-discusses-drone-incident-air-cargo-hub-2026-08-07/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/aug/06/leipzig-drone-bomb-found-near-ukrainian-plane-carrying-ammunition
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/u-s-intel-finds-putin-could-test-natos-resolve-with-limited-incursion-e3b02e2c?st=LXaSes&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
https://x.com/414magyarbirds/status/2085980136378077692?s=20
https://x.com/414magyarbirds/status/2085646628560556041?s=20
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So while all eyes are on the Strait of Hormuz, a new front may have just opened, threatening even more instability in the Middle East and decreasing the changes the Iran war is wrapped up anytime soon. Yesterday the Houthis carried out an attack against Yemeni government forces sparking fears of a new regional escalation.
Initial reports are that 58 government soldiers were killed along with 11 civilians that were wounded after they were struck by Houthi drones in Saudi Arabia. This marks one of the deadliest days of the ongoing civil war in over four years and warns of a possible return to full scale war.
Sources:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jul/30/saudi-forces-planning-major-offensive-against-houthis-central-yemen
https://apnews.com/article/yemen-houthis-attacks-iran-us-explainer-6d79ab62dc697281ba5be0352e95b2c5
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-expects-imminent-attacks-north-south-senior-official-says-2026-08-06/
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/06/world/middleeast/houthi-yemen-strikes.html
https://www.timesofisrael.com/houthi-attack-on-saudi-arabia-wounds-11-civilians-as-kingdom-warns-of-wider-threat/
https://sanaacenter.org/publications/perspectives-and-analyses/28037
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Ukraine’s middle strike campaign continues to hammer Russian logistics and based on new data, it does appear to have slowed Russia’s advance over the past few months but there’s still plenty of work to be done. And when I say slowed, I mean that Russia’s key offensives this summer are moving slower than soldiers did across the Somme in WWI.
Sources:
https://x.com/CSIS/status/2085123757111115913?s=20
https://t.me/rybar/82258
https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=47.741170&lng=36.804199&z=8&d=20665&c=1&l=0
https://t.me/DeepStateUA/23716
https://t.me/creamy_caprice/12586
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Sources to learn more about the Human Safari in Kherson:
https://khersonhumansafari.com/
https://x.com/ZarinaZabrisky
https://x.com/kelley7622
https://brendankelley.substack.com/
https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua
Yesterday Russian drone operators hunted a civilian in the Ukrainian city of Kherson. This wasn’t a mistake, I mean Russians bragged about it and it’s unfortunately not unusual. The deliberate targeting of civilians, aid workers, elderly and children alike is so common in this area that it’s been dubbed the “Human Safari”.
Sources:
https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=46.646549&lng=32.633686&z=13&d=20661&c=1&l=0
https://t.me/osvedomitell_alex/36553
https://t.me/osvedomitell_alex/36574
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/03/world/europe/drone-russian-beach-explosion.html
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Four months ago Ryan Evans wrote about the war in Iran “we aren’t just walking the path to defeat — we are blindly sprinting down it.” Unfortunately much of that assessment appears even more accurate today.
Today we’re joined by Ryan Evans, the founder of War on the Rocks, a platform for analysis and debate on strategy, defense and foreign affairs. We get into what looks like a severe lack of strategic consideration at the start of the war, what options President Trump has remaining and more.
Sources referenced:
https://warontherocks.com/tactical-success-strategic-failure-washington-walks-the-path-to-defeat-in-iran/
https://warontherocks.com/membership/
https://x.com/EvansRyan202
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Ukrainian drones struck, on average, seven different Russian targets every hour of every day in July. That's more than 53,000 unique Russian targets hit. We just got the July rollup from the Ukrainian unmanned systems forces and these numbers are wild. We’ll even do some comparisons based on new data released by both the Ukrainian and Russian governments.
Sources:
https://t.me/milinfolive/176358
https://t.me/romanov_92/54829?single
https://t.me/usf_army/2274
https://t.me/icpbtrubicon/2284
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Maneuver warfare isn’t dead, it’s just changing. And one of the units forging this new path on the battlefield is Ukraine’s 225th Separate Assault Regiment. Today we’re joined by Sanich, the Deputy Commander of the 1st Battalion, 225th Assault Regiment to hear how they’re able to conduct offensive operations in a drone saturated battlefield.
He explains how their tactics have changed, what they’re seeing from Russian forces right now in their area of operations and more. This interview is part of a fundraiser through Car4Ukraine where you all helped to provide a vehicle to 1st Battalion, 225th Regiment.
Ways to support the 225th
For the 1st Assault Battalion of the 225th Separate Assault Regiment:
🔧 Components for building unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs)
⚡ Power stations and generators
🚙 Vehicles
🇺🇦 Support Ukraine
💳 PayPal — [email protected]
🏦 Monobank — https://send.monobank.ua/jar/4aaZb5pYcr
🌍 Wise — 4596610005098270
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