Friday 13th March 2026

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NAB's Gavin Friend joins Phil today as heightened rhetoric over Iran pushes oil back over $100 for a spell. They unpack a significant climb in bond yields across the US, UK, and Europe, reflecting a market that is quickly pricing out hope for near-term rate cuts amidst the largest oil supply disruption in history. While the IEA warns of an 8 million barrel per day drop in global supply for March, Gavin breaks down why US Navy escorts might be the only hope for reopening the Straits of Hormuz by month's end. The conversation also pivots to the UK's precarious fiscal position under Chancellor Rachel Reeves ahead of new GDP data and a surprisingly sharp narrowing of the US trade deficit that could shift Q1 growth forecasts.

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