Friday 3rd February 2022

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Three central banks have tried to sound hawkish this week, as they lift rates at levels already anticipated by the markets. But does the market believe them? That’s a question put to NAB’s Gavin Friend today, as US share prices rise and bond markets rally. It seems, despite central bankers (the Fed the ECB and BoE) continuing to say there’s more work to be done, there has been more focus on Jerome Powell’s line that “the disinflation process has started” and Christine Lagarde declaring “inflation risks in Europe are more balanced”. Where next depends on the data, of course, which will make tonight’s payroll numbers from the US important, along with the US ISM services index.

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