Weight Loss Winformation by Connie Stapleton, Ph.D.

August 12, 2026 Episode 293: Weight Loss and False Hope Syndrome

Have you experienced False Hope Syndrome? Without telling you exactly what that is, I’m going to let you know chances are good that you have. I have certainly done so in more than one area of my life! False Hope Syndrome runs rampant in relation to weight loss. Listen in, learn exactly what it is and how to keep yourself safe from falling into the disappointment associated with False Hope Syndrome as you move forward in losing and maintaining weight loss.

The Weight Loss Winformation Podcast gives you essential psychological information to help you lose weight and more importantly, to help keep you at a healthy weight for your body! No matter how you are working to lose weight and no matter how much weight you want to lose, Weight Loss Winformation will keep you moving in a positive direction. Let’s get started because well… Why Weight? (get it? Pun intended… )?

Resources:

· BariAfterare: www.bariaftercare.com

· Connie Stapleton PhD website: www.conniestapletonphd.com

· BariAftercare website: https://www.conniestapletonphd.com/bariaftercare

· BariAftercare Facebook page (for members only): https://www.facebook.com/groups/BariAftercare

· Kevin Stephens: Your Bariatric Buddy https://www.facebook.com/groups/yourbariatricbuddy/people

· Instagram: @ (Caleshia Haynes)

· Instagram: @therealbariboss (Tabitha Johnson)

· Instagram @drsusanmitchell (Dr. Susan Mitchell)

· Instagram: @lauraleepreston (Laura Preston)

· ProCare Vitamins (10% off with code ConnieStapleton)

· Rob DiMedio: https://www.busybariatrics.com/

· Dr. Joan Brugman: [email protected]

· Dr. Nestor de la Cruz-Munoz on Linked In: https://www.linkedin.com/in/drdelacruzmunoz/

From: How Much Weight Will You Lose After Bariatric Surgery? Nestor de la Cruz-Munoz MD, FACS, DABOM

July 12, 2026

The Evidence Is Clear — And It’s Not What Most Patients Expect

o The AACE/TOS/ASMBS guidelines are explicit: Very few preoperative factors are sufficiently predictive to give a precise individual weight loss number.

This means the honest answer is not a number — it’s a range.

The Real Weight Loss Ranges by Procedure

The most reliable metric is total weight loss percentage (TWL) — not excess weight loss.

Sleeve Gastrectomy (SG)

· 23–25% TWL at 1 year

· 17–19% TWL at 5 years

· PCORnet (65,000+ patients): 18.8% TWL at 5 years

Roux‑en‑Y Gastric Bypass (RYGB)

· 28–31% TWL at 1 year

· 21–26% TWL at 5 years

· 20–27% TWL at 10 years

· PCORnet: 25.5% TWL at 5 years

· SM‑BOSS RCT: 27.5% TWL at 10 years

One‑Anastomosis Gastric Bypass (OAGB)

· Highest early TWL

· Emerging evidence suggests greater long‑term durability than SG and RYGB

· Randomized Trials

By‑Band‑Sleeve RCT (3‑year outcomes):

· RYGB: 26.8% TWL

· Sleeve: 19.4% TWL

· Band: 14.0% TWL

Weight regain after cessation of medication for weight management: systematic review and meta-analysis

o West S, Scragg J, Aveyard P, Oke JL, Willis L, Haffner SJP, Knight H, Wang D, Morrow S, Heath L, Jebb SA, Koutoukidis DA. Weight regain after cessation of medication for weight management: systematic review and meta-analysis. BMJ. 2026 Jan 7;392:e085304. doi: 10.1136/bmj-2025-085304. PMID: 41500720; PMCID: PMC12776922.

o https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41500720/

· The primary anti-obesity medications (AOMs) highlighted in this high-level study are newer incretin mimetics, specifically:

o Semaglutide (a GLP-1 receptor agonist)

o Tirzepatide (a GIP/GLP-1 receptor co-agonist)

The Rebound Effect: High-Level Evidence

This January 2026 systematic review and meta-analysis published in The BMJ synthesized data from 37 studies involving 9,341 participants, providing robust, high-level clinical evidence on what happens after stopping these medications:

· Rapid Return to Baseline: On average, patients return to their baseline weight within 1.7 years after stopping any weight management medication.

· Accelerated Regain for GLP-1/GIP Drugs: For those stopping semaglutide or tirzepatide, the rebound is even faster—returning to baseline weight in just 1.5 years.

· Faster than Behavioral Programs: The rate of weight regain after medication cessation is significantly faster than the regain observed after finishing behavioral weight management programs.

· Reversal of Health Benefits: Stopping these therapies also rapidly reverses their positive, beneficial effects on cardiometabolic markers.

· These findings emphasize that using these medications short-term without a more comprehensive, long-term approach to weight management leads to a rapid reversal of both weight loss and cardiometabolic improvements, and this is the real benefit we can offer to our patients: a long-term plan that can and should be updated on the course of their chronic disease and its natural course. Nothing in obesity treatment should be absolutely static.

· How to overcome past dieting failures. By Kristen A. Carter MS

o https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/health-and-human-nature/202103/false-hope-syndrome-reveals-big-problem-dieting

· Getting Real: Warning Signs of False Hope Syndrome. by Dan J. Tomasulo PhD., TEP, MFA, MAPP

o https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-healing-crowd/202209/getting-real-warning-signs-of-false-hope-syndrome

· Expected Weight Loss From Gastric Bypass – Calculatoro https://www.obesitycoverage.com/weight-loss-surgeries/gastric-bypass/how-much-can-i-expect-to-lose

· Expected Weight Loss (after Sleeve)

o https://www.obesitycoverage.com/gastric-sleeve-reference-manual/

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