Are we close to a market bottom, or is more pain ahead? Philip Petursson, Chief Investment Strategist at IG Wealth Management, assesses recession risk through multiple indicators, including yield curves, manufacturing data, financial conditions and labour markets. He discusses why markets are making a familiar mistake by extrapolating geopolitical shocks into macro collapse, and the critical difference between momentum loss and level collapse. He also explains why it would be a policy error to increase interest rates in weakening economies because of oil supply shocks. Philip shares his view on the catalysts that could build the foundation for a meaningful low, as bad news stops working the way it once did.