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If things were going well for Keir Starmer then he would have nothing to fear, and indeed much to benefit, from the return of a political big beast to Westminster like Andy Burnham.

If the Prime Minister had a clear plan for the country then the return of a rival, even one as determined to become Prime Minister as Burnham, would barely ruffle the feathers of those cooped up in Downing Street.

Previous Prime Ministers have acted differently.

When Boris Johnson, as London Mayor, announced his own return to Westminster, there was no attempt by David Cameron to block him from doing so, despite Johnson's own plans to become "world king" being well established.

Instead Cameron actively encouraged him to come back and then sought to use his talents in Government for the benefit of his own party and leadership.

Johnson proved to be an irritant, but he never seriously threatened Cameron's leadership for the simple reason that the then Prime Minister was in a position of strength.

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Of course Johnson did arguably end up playing a part in Cameron's downfall, backing the Brexit campaign which ultimately toppled him.

But that failure, just like the decision to accept Johnson back to Westminster, was ultimately in Cameron's hands. Had Cameron fought a better campaign, or even opted to remain in Downing Street post-referendum, then he could have remained as Prime Minister for years more to come.

The same cannot be now said of Starmer. His decision to block Burnham from becoming a an MP has been taken, not from a position of strength, but from a position of potentially irreversible weakness.

By blocking the Greater Manchester Mayor, he has made it all but impossible for Labour to cling on to their previously safe seat in Gorton and Denton, with Nigel Farage's Reform, or even potentially the Greens, poised to take it instead.

Either of these outcomes would severely weaken the Prime Minister's position and bring the point at which Labour MPs move against him to a head.

An Alternative Path

It didn't have to be this way. Had Starmer instead welcomed Burnham's return and then gone on to win the Gorton by-election together, then both the Prime Minister and the Labour party would have emerged in a stronger position.

He could then have offered Burnham a seat in the Cabinet, just as Cameron did with Johnson, and sought to hold him to his word of wanting to help the Government succeed. Had Burnham either refused, or then used his new position to undermine that Government then it would have been Burnham, rather than Starmer, whose position would have been weakened.

Of course such a path would have carried risks, but those risks could have been manageable. Instead the Prime Minister has chosen a path that looks all but certain to end in disaster for his Premiership

It may sound simplistic to the point of absurdity, but in politics winning comes from winning. It does not come from losing. If Labour loses the Gorton by-election, after blocking the man most likely to have won it, then no amount of Downing Street shenanigans are going to save Starmer from a concerted attempt to remove him as leader. The Prime Minister's Chief of Staff, Morgan McSweeney, may feel that he has won a battle, but he now faces losing the wider war as a result.

These considerations may not worry those in Downing Street too much. Over the last few years it has become clear that the overwhelming priority of those around the Prime Minister is to pursu...