In this episode, we take a trip in a time machine, five years into the future. 2030 has been set as a deadline for many climate goals, and is a milestone for checking progress towards a low-carbon energy system. Ed Crooks, Amy Myers Jaffe and Melissa Lott imagine themselves five years from now, and look back at how the US energy industry has changed since the “big beautiful bill” was passed. What do they think have been the key headlines from the last half-decade? And how will history judge America’s energy bets?

The reconciliation bill that was signed into law by President Trump on July 4 restricted support for low-carbon energy, especially wind and solar power, and doubled down on fossil fuels. The gang break down the sectors that are most at risk, and assess what the changes to tax credits will mean for project developers in renewables and storage. EVs are another sector that will be hit hard. Amy warns that the end result is likely to be a struggling US auto industry and increased Chinese dominance. 

Another important change is that geopolitics is playing an increased role in deciding who can claim tax credits and who can’t. The new rules on FEOCs – foreign entities of concern – from China, Iran, Russia and North Korea could cause headaches for battery storage developers, in particular.

Mitigating the impact of all that are state policies and private sector commitments to invest in clean energy, which will continue to push the industry forward. Will they be enough? 

Amy Myers Jaffe is Director of the Energy, Climate Justice and Sustainability Lab at NYU. Melissa Lott is a Partner at Microsoft, focusing on energy technology, speaking on the show in a personal capacity.

With host Ed Crooks, they assess whether the “big beautiful bill” will result in a lasting setback for clean energy in the US, or just a pause for breathe before the next leap forward.

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