Ian Bremmer sits down with New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman to dissect what may go down as the most consequential month in the Middle East in years. Just weeks after Israel launched a war against Iran—and after President Trump authorized US airstrikes—an uneasy ceasefire is in place. But what was actually achieved?

Iran, the clear loser of the 12-Day War, entered as the most vulnerable player and emerged weaker still. Tehran stood largely alone, with Hamas degraded, Hezbollah decimated, Syria toppled, and Russia distracted. Yet the Islamic Republic can still claim regime survival, some damage inflicted on Israel, and a murkily intact nuclear program.

Netanyahu, meanwhile, avoided a ceasefire until he had secured key gains: he crippled Iran’s infrastructure, leveraged US firepower to hit targets beyond Israel’s reach, and rescued his collapsing political career. As Friedman notes, “The people who won this war for Israel...were, for the most part, the very same people who were in the streets of Israel for nine months against Netanyahu and his judicial coup.” That tension will only grow in the months ahead.

For Trump, this marks the biggest foreign policy victory of his second term—at least for now. He struck a blow to Iran’s ambitions, avoided a broader war, and emerged politically unscathed. But what happens next, especially in Gaza, will test the durability of that win.

Host: Ian Bremmer

Guest: Thomas L. Friedman 

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