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What's Your Assumption? - December 10, 2025 - What's Your Assumption: Seven Trades Ahead of Oracle and Adobe Earnings


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Hosts Nick and Tony conducted a selective What's Your Assumption session executing seven trades while managing existing positions ahead of major Fed meeting and Oracle/Adobe earnings. The Carvana trade stood out as Tony adjusted viewer's tight 500-520 call ratio to wider 500-530 spread for $1.50 credit, capturing the stock's 12-day parabolic move from $300 to $460 with 10 short deltas. The NVIDIA-Google pair trade (long 200 NVIDIA, short 100 Google) provided engagement positioning on the ratio spread with Nick emphasizing it's "a trade not a position" for scalping purposes. Oracle January 185 puts at $4 represented neutral-to-bullish earnings play with 82 IV rank expected to crush to low-50s post-earnings. Multiple existing positions prevented new entries including TLT (hosts long bonds via various structures), Netflix (Nick has synthetic covered calls with 96-100 short puts), and iBit (both hosts locked and loaded with multiple strategies). The Adobe discussion featured creative bearish butterfly structure buying 330-325 put spread and selling 315 puts twice for 10-cent credit, though Tony questioned the 50-cent profit potential. Lockheed Martin deemed untradeable with $2-3 wide option markets, with hosts passing despite viewer Roberto's "guaranteed upside" assertion for holiday defense spending.
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