Welcome to a new week and a new theme here on the One Minute Retirement Tip! This week, I’m getting my beloved crystal ball out to tell you why I think a lot of the recession rumors out there right now are based more on sensationalism than actual data, and why I’m still positive about the direction of the economy and hence, the stock market. 

I seldom talk to a client these days who isn’t worried about the state of the economy and their investment portfolio. Despite double digit returns in the stock and bond markets in the first 3 quarters of 2019, investors out there are just downright scared. 

So we gotta tackle this head on and talk about what is going on in the world right now - what’s driving the economy and the stock market, and take an honest look at where we might go from here. 

And that’s exactly what I’m doing this week. I’ll be covering Trump’s trade beef with China, inverted yield curves, leading indicators to watch, and much more. We’ll take a rational look at these events and how they might impact your retirement portfolio.  

Tomorrow, we’re going to dive in with a primer of those important indicators that give us some idea of the direction the economy is heading.

But before I end today, I have a confession to make. I don’t actually own a crystal ball, nor am I full of hot air enough to actually think I know what’s going to happen 2, 4, or 6 months from now. Heck, even tomorrow is just a guess. The best I or anyone else can do is try to understand the drivers of the market and the economy and make an educated guess about reality. Keep in mind that even the so-called experts get it wrong all the time. 

If it’s any consolation I do own a magic 8 ball. I consulted it before I started recording. I asked her if a recession is looming, and she’s such a hunk of junk that it took 5 shakes to make out a reply, but alas, here’s what she said: “My reply is no”. So there you have it. The magic 8 ball agrees with me. 

That’s it for today, thanks for listening. My name is Ashley Micciche...and this is the One Minute Retirement Tip. 

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