I know Tesla stock is sky high. Higher even than Electric Jesus himself thinks is reasonable. But the world’s leading EV kit car company is doomed, ultimately. Here are the top reasons why.

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Tesla has had essentially zero competition for six or seven years now. 

Next year, however, (2021) just here in Shitsville: Three-pronged Suppository EQ-whatever (five of six of them). Porsche Taycan. Mazda MX-30. XC40 Recharge and Polestar 2. BMW iX and iX3. Lexus UX300e. Volkswagen ID.4. Hyundai Ioniq 5, Kia e-Niro and e-Soul.

These are all proper EVs from proper carmakers - meaning companies, unlike Tesla, which understand how to make cars. Tesla almost knows how to make cars, and they do EV tech pretty well, but the cars and the support are third-rate, at best. 

Viable competition is going to be a new thing for Tesla.

You’ve gotta remember Tesla lacks anything unique - in terms of tech. They use the same battery tech and electric tech as everyone else. The only thing Tesla has, in the domain of uniqueness is...

...when you buy a Tesla you’re also buying a little piece of Electric Jesus. The real world’s Tony Stark. I think this is a fundamental motivator for many Tesla owners. But, clearly, not everyone wants that. Some people just want an electric car - they don’t want to sip the Kool-Aid and join the cult.

So, there will be actual choice, of EVs, with 400-450km range, in 2021. Proper competition. Tesla has never had to operate in a market with actual competition before, and this will place them under additional pressure, for a change.

2021 will see Tesla come up against actual competition from hardcore carmakers, which it is ill-equipped to endure. Tesla seems to have nothing new to deploy in the face of this real commercial assault.

Once the bubble bursts - and it might take until 2022 - and all the hot air leaks out, you’ve got a couple of cool concepts and some poorly made, ageing EVs with a tenuous philosophical link to Electric Jesus … and frankly not all that much else.

So, if you’re Daimler, or Volkswagen, or GM or Ford - would you wait for Tesla to make like the Hindenburg, and swoop in for pennies on the dollar? Or is it just not even worth picking through the ashes? That’ll be interesting to watch. Like, who would buy Tesla after the inevitable purge? Who would want it?

Tesla has only one medium-term trajectory: Failure. Which the market has not yet factored in. Many of you will let me have it in the comments, I know. And you will cite the share price - the market capitalization - as your key repudiation of my position on this.

I’d respectfully retort: Is that the best you’ve got? Markets are famous for ignoring this kind of thing - look at October 19, 1987 and October 6, 2008. Rationality has very little to do with these kinds of inevitable corrections.

It’s certainly been emotional watching EJ and the faithful dance in this (disconnected from reality) way, but at least the entertainment is not yet over. It might even ramp up in 2021.