The United States and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire in Iran, and energy markets responded with jubilation — at least initially. Every major Wall Street index surged on Wednesday, and U.S. oil prices fell.

But the actual situation on the ground is far more ambiguous, huge questions remain about the truce, and the Strait of Hormuz is as closed today as it has been since the beginning of the war.

On this episode of Shift Key, Rob is joined by Rory Johnston, a longtime oil analyst, repeat Shift Key guest, and the author of the Commodity Context newsletter. We talk about why Iran gains from extending the ceasefire, where the pressure in the global energy system is building up, and what could happen next. We also talk about why the Midwest has the cheapest gasoline in the world right now.

Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap News.

You can find a full transcript of the episode here.

Mentioned:

Why the Real Oil Crisis Hasn’t Started Yet

Iran’s planned toll for the Strait of Hormuz is a $2.33 per ton carbon tax

China Is the Big Winner of the Iran Ceasefire

Rory’s previous appearance on Shift Key: Why Trump’s Oil Imperialism Might Be a Tough Sell for Actual Oil Companies

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This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by ...

Lunar Energy is building the technology to turn homes into active participants in the power system. Learn more about Lunar’s vision of the future at lunarenergy.com.

Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.

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