Van and Steve talk about which stats become meaningful in a short sample and apply them to players off to hot or cold starts to try to see what is sustainable and what is noise a week into the season. The guys then take a look at pitchers who had strong first starts and determine who is more than just a streamer. 

Rundown

2:19 News & Notes: Tatis, Bellinger, Olson, Gallen

11:47 Max Exit Velocity: meaningful in small samples

13:08 Hot starts with high Max EVs for Nate Lowe, Kyle Isbel, and Nick Castellanos

23:28 Buying the bounceback for JD Martinez?

26:33 Whit Merrifield's power surge and improved Statcast numbers

29:26 Eric Hosmer still has a ground ball problem

32:08 Plate discipline changes: Joey Gallo, Keston Hiura, Christian Yelich, and Yoan Moncada

47:18 Impressive first starts for Yusei Kikuchi, John Means, Joe Musgrove, Jordan Montgomery, and Carlos Rodon

61:25 More than a streamer? Steven Matz, Danny Duffy, Jose De Leon, and Matt Shoemaker

67:02 Closer Chaos

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Van and Steve look for early season pitching matchups to target and discuss players they are adding to their "watch list" as opening day approaches. "Put Our Names On It Pt. II" where Van and Steve each give two players they like to finish 20% above or below their ADP for the 2021 season, and Fantasy TL:DR: Ethan Moore's Quality of Stuff (QOS+).

Rundown

4:18 Analyzing early-season pitching schedules

5:10 Reds, Padres, and Giants favorable early schedules

8:45 Logan Webb's juicy matchups and new changeup

11:30 Pitchers to target: Christian Javier, Griffin Canning, Jordan Montgomery

13:42 Early season waiver wire targets and watch list

19:50 Casey Mize

22:36 Akil Baddoo

25:35 Jose Rojas

27:40 Kolten Wong

30:53 Tyler O'Neill

34:30 Anthony DeSclafani

37:15 Kyle Isbel

40:55 Put Our Names On It Part II: players we like to finish 20% above or below their ADP

42:10 Steve Target: Chris Paddack (107 ADP)

45:18 Van Target: Marcus Semien (127 ADP)

48:59 Steve Fade: Ozzie Albies (35 ADP)

52:04 Van Fade: Alex Verdugo (130 ADP)

54:46 Steve Target: Nick Senzel (241 ADP)

58:47 Van Fade: Eugenio Suarez (63 ADP)

64:56 Steve Fade: Zach Plesac (76 ADP)

69:25 Van Target: Raimel Tapia (238 ADP)

74:23 Quick home league recaps

80:15 Fantasy TL;DR: Quality of Stuff

Ethan Moore's QOS+

Nick Pollack's Early Season Pitcher Matchups

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Van and Steve recap the Pitcher List Podcast Fantasy draft where they are competing versus 13 other Pitcher List podcasts in a 5x5, weekly moves, head-to-head league. The debut of the "Put it in Ink" segment where Van and Steve give players that they like to finish 20% above or below their ADP cost at year's end. Plus the return of Fantasy TL;DR on Command+.

Rundown

4:00 Fernando Tatis Jr. shoulder scare 

5:30 Zac Gallen's forearm injury

9:30 Kirby Yates headed for TJ. Jordan Romano as a saves target?

12:18 George Springer grade 2 oblique strain

14:50 Pitcher List Podcast Network Fantasy League draft recap

61:05 Put it in Ink: scoreboard for players we like to finish 20% above or below their ADP

62:36 Steve Target: Nolan Arenado (40 ADP)

65:24 Van Target: Anthony Rendon (41 ADP)

68:50 Steve Fade: Zack Wheeler (99 ADP)

71:48 Van Fade: Cavan Biggio (64 ADP)

76:07 Steve Target: Clint Frazier (178 ADP)

79:02 Van Target: Marcus Stroman (207 ADP)

82:24 Steve Fade: Dansby Swanson (105 ADP)

85:56 Van Fade: Jesus Luzardo (102 ADP)

89:49 Fantasy TL;DR: Command+

Eno Sarris on Command+

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Van and Steve are joined by George Bissell of NBC Sports Edge and Pitcher List to discuss several of George's key spring training takeaways including players he is ranking higher than the industry. Also, a game of "What's the Better Bet" on some interesting stat lines and takes for the 2021 season. Plus a breakdown of how George goes about his process for analyzing players. 

Rundown

1:35 News & Notes

12:36 America's Sleeper: Tejay Antone

17:17 Tony Gonsolin's role with LAD

21:00 Yusei Kikuchi a late pitching target?

25:08 Tim Anderson is still being slept on

33:33 What does Casey Mize need to do to break out?

39:38 Freddy Peralta's role in 2021

48:57 Ke'Bryan Hayes: a future top 50 hitter?

57:25 What's the Better Bet: Schwarber 35 HRs vs. Strasburg 150 IP

61:40 Jared Kelenic 25 HRs & 10 SB vs. Yusei Kikuchi ERA under 3.25

65:03 Tim Anderson .300 w/100 runs & 20/20 vs. Trevor Story 30/30

70:07 Who cracks the top 100 in ADP in 2020: Aaron Civale vs. Tyler Mahle

73:30 Joey Gallo hits above .230 vs. Tommy Pham going 20/20

79:44 What makes good analysis?

Follow George on Twitter: @GeorgeBissell

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Van and Steve discuss the latest set of MLB news including Jake Odorizzi to the Astros, recent ADP risers, and players who are off to a hot start in spring, and some who are not. Pitcher List's Christian Mack joins the show for Fantasy TL;DR breaking down his latest metric: Ideal Plate Approach (IPA).

Rundown

2:01 Forrest Whitley may need Tommy John

3:35 Jarred Kelenic grade two adductor strain in left knee

5:18 Nate Pearson unlikely to be ready for opening day with groin strain

6:38 Framber Valdez' fractured finger

8:13 Jake Odorizzi signs in Houston

12:18 Jackie Bradley Jr. to the Brewers

15:50 Is the new ball being used in Spring Training?

18:12 ADP Risers (C.J. Cron, Tejay, Antone, Tyler Mahle, Jose Urquidy)

28:44 Promising Spring Starts

44:15 Spring warning signs

51:10 Van's NFBC Satellite draft recap

55:48 Steve's TGFBI draft recap

62:45 Fantasy TL;DR: Ideal Plate Approach with Christian Mack

Follow Christian on Twitter: @jchristianmack

More About Ideal Plate Approach:

An Introduction to IPA

IPA Tableau Leaderboard

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Van and Steve discuss how to determine what is spring training news versus noise and breakdown the latest set of headlines across the MLB, which prospects to target in redraft leagues, the current state of saves, and Fantasy TL;DR on the most predictive ERA indicator: pCRA.

Rundown

5:10 Spring training news vs. noise: how to determine what is useful

16: 28 The return of the alternate sites

17:56 Brandon Woodruff's back stiffness

19:52 Xander Bogaerts' shoulder MRI

22:27 Shohei Ohtani's impressive bullpen session

22:33 Fantasy Faceoff: Brandon Nimmo vs. Aaron Hicks

29:06 Prospects to target in redraft leagues

44:22 How to approach saves

53:18 Early takeaways from Steve's TGFBI draft

64:56 Fantasy TL;DR: pCRA

Conor Kurcon's pCRA metric

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Van and Steve breakdown the latest set of MLB transactions including Fernando Tatis Jr.'s new mega-deal and talk about a few players whose projections they disagree with including Kyle Hendricks, Kenta Maeda, and Giancarlo Stanton. The debut of Fantasy Faceoffs segment - a debate between players with similar ADP's. This week's Industry TL;DR (too long, didn't read): an explanation of Alex Chamberlian's Blast metric.

Rundown

4:49 Fernando Tatis Jr. contract extension

11:03 Trevor Rosenthal to the A's

13:40 Taijuan Walker heads to Queens

15:40 Jake Lamb to the Braves potential impact on Austin Riley's playing time.

18:33 Colorado enters the Cron Zone: C.J. Cron signs with the Rockies

22:40 Puzzling Projections: Kyle Hendricks

27:30 Puzzling Projections: Kenta Maeda

33:30 Puzzling Projections: Lance Lynn

37:40 Puzzling Projections: Giancarlo Stanton & Lance McCullers

42:43 Fantasy Faceoffs: Aaron Nola vs Luis Castillo

45:35 Fantasy Faceoffs: Paul Goldschmidt vs Anthony Rizzo

50:31 Fantasy Faceoffs: Nick Castellanos vs Yordan Alvarez

53:21 Fantasy Faceoffs: Carlos Correa vs Kris Bryant

61:56 Industry TL;DR: Blasts: A Subset o Barrels

Alex Chamberlian on Blasts: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/blasts-a-subset-of-barrels/

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The debut episode of Wins Above Fantasy, part of the Pitcher List Podcast Network! Van Burnett and Steve Gesuele discuss draft strategies including some targets and fades, finding values by comparing ADPs 2020 to 2021, James Paxton back in Seattle and Justin Turner re-upping with the Dodgers. Van and Steve also discuss the changes to the baseball and breakdown baseballs' hottest new metric: seam shifted wake. 

Rundown

3:00 Draft Strategies

16:14 Targets & Fades

36:54 Finding value in year-over-year ADP fallers

44:24 James Paxton returns to Seattle

47:23 Justin Turner back with the Dodgers

49:50 Changes in the baseball and the impact on fantasy

56:06 Seam Shifted Wake: What is it and how can it help your fantasy team

Eno Sarris on SSW: https://theathletic.com/2337324/2021/01/22/seam-shifted-wake-sleeper-pitchers/

Barton Smith on SSW: https://www.baseballaero.com/2020/12/23/cliff-notes-seam-shifted-wake-post-65/

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Wins Above Fantasy trailer. Part of the Pitcher List Podcast Network. 

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