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One story here looks like safety theater colliding with geopolitics. The other looks like a business model colliding with arithmetic.
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An OpenAI IPO sounds like a simple milestone story until you put the financing next to the spending. Then it stops looking like a normal growth company and starts looking like a test of how much strain the market will absorb for AI.
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The core question here isn't whether AI is useful. It's whether the industry's spending plans make any economic sense at the scale being promised. And once you look at the debt, the token billing, and the revenue assumptions together, the stress points start to line up.
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The loudest AI story says inevitability: massive demand, massive disruption, massive value. The quieter story is about losses, subsidies, weird billing, concentrated customers, and a lot of people treating demos like proof.
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A lot of the AI argument right now comes down to a weird mismatch. The public story is abundance, efficiency, and inevitability. The financial story looks a lot murkier once you ask who pays, what gets measured, and whether any of it actually holds up without subsidies.
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A trillion dollars in GPUs sounds like inevitability until you ask who is actually using them, where they’re going, and how any of this gets paid back. The interesting question isn’t whether AI is real. It’s whether the current scale story survives contact with construction timelines, customer concentration, and basic unit economics.
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Ed Zitron's worst enemy, an AI summarization of his anti-AI content. Get the squeeze of the Where's Your Ed At newsletter.
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