In early November the New York Times released a poll that had Donald Trump clearly ahead in 5 of the 6 battleground states that will decide the 2024 election. It caused an earthquake and outright panic among (small-d) democrats. But just two days later, Democrats emerged victorious from an actual election. What on earth is going on in American politics right now? What are we to make of poll after poll claiming that Trump is on a path back to the White House? Do they tell us anything about what’s actually going on in the electorate? How should Democrats react in this situation?  

There is no one else better equipped to discuss these questions – and shatter a few well-entrenched myths about elections and politics in the process – than Michael Podhorzer. He was, until recently, the long-time political director of the AFL-CIO and is now a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress. And Mike is, without any exaggeration, a legend in progressive policy circles, having been instrumental in building and organizing an infrastructure for data-driven and evidence-based progressive politics. He is also someone who thinks deeply and sincerely about American politics and combines that with decades of experience as a leading progressive strategist and campaigner. The result is a clarity that few other political observers can rival – something he demonstrates regularly in his Weekend Reading Substack newsletter, in which he offers some of the very best political analysis out there.  

We talk with Mike about why horse-race polling is “worse than useless” and should be ignored entirely; we dissect the dogma of “popularism” that is extremely influential in Democratic politics – even though (or, perhaps: precisely because) it offers white male identity politics rather than an adequate diagnosis or campaign strategy; and we discuss what’s actually going on in the electorate: Why there is so much frustration in U.S. society; the massive impact of the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision; and why the pervasive idea of “education polarization” sanitizes and obscures the fault lines that actually shape U.S. politics.   

 

Show notes:

Michael Podhorzer’s Weekend Reading Substack newsletter: https://www.weekendreading.net/

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This episode was produced by ⁠⁠Connor Lynch