4 Things To Know This Afternoon

1. Iran's Deeply Buried Nuclear Threat I explain why Iran's Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site could withstand conventional bunker-buster attacks and why stopping the nuclear program may require far more than another bombing campaign.

2. Medicaid Fraud Crackdown I examine the Trump administration's decision to freeze $1 billion in Medicaid payments to Minnesota and California as both states face allegations of widespread fraud and inadequate enforcement.

3. Noncitizens on New Jersey's Voter Rolls I break down how motor-voter registration added 6,000 noncitizens to New Jersey's voter rolls, why some appear to have voted, and why election integrity demands accountability without exaggeration.

4. America's Natural Gas Pipeline Shortage I look at why Permian Basin producers are burning off or giving away natural gas while pipeline restrictions prevent that energy from reaching consumers and lowering prices.

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1. New York Mayor Threatens to Arrest Benjamin Netanyahu I explain why the mayor's campaign promise to arrest Netanyahu over the International Criminal Court warrant would collide with federal authority and President Trump's protection of an official United States guest.

2. Houthis Threaten a Maritime Blockade Against Saudi Arabia The Iranian-backed Houthis say they will attack ships carrying Saudi oil, creating another dangerous front in the Red Sea and drawing Saudi Arabia and Israel closer together against a shared enemy.

3. Federal Judge Temporarily Blocks Paramount-Warner Merger A progressive lawsuit could delay Paramount's acquisition of Warner Brothers and any resulting changes at CNN. I look at why the left is fighting the deal and whether viewers would even notice a difference.

4. Iran Conflict Sends Oil Prices Toward $90 Oil prices are surging as President Trump threatens consequences for Iran and the Houthis target Saudi shipping. Continued volatility could raise consumer prices, disrupt grocery costs, and worsen inflation.

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1. Iran War Widens Across the Middle East American forces continue striking Iranian positions as Tehran and its proxies target military sites, allies, and shipping routes. I explain why Israel remains on the sidelines and why regime change may be unavoidable.

2. Trump's Election Claims Face an Evidence Test President Trump warned about Chinese interference and weaknesses in election security, but many of his broader claims remain hypothetical. I separate legitimate concerns about ballot security from allegations unsupported by enough evidence to overturn an election.

3. China's Blackmail Operation Raises New Questions Reports indicate China monitored the internet activity of someone in the first Trump administration and may have attempted to build a blackmail dossier. I examine why the administration should release the classified information and impose real consequences.

4. White House IRS Pressure Sparks Corruption Concerns Treasury official Kenneth Keyes is reportedly leaving after warning that a potential White House request could violate federal law governing IRS audits. I explain why conservatives cannot tolerate the political weaponization of the IRS, regardless of which party controls Washington.

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1. Renewed U.S. Strikes on Iran American forces are again bombing Iranian positions near the Strait of Hormuz. I examine Iran's failed diplomacy, President Trump's response, and J.D. Vance's accusation that Israel tried to undermine the peace deal.

2. A Pipeline That Could Bypass Hormuz Chevron is exploring a pipeline route through Iraq that could reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. I explain how new energy routes involving Iraq, Jordan, and Israel could weaken Iran's leverage.

3. Truth Social Sells Rapid Access Truth Social is selling faster access to President Trump's market-moving posts. I discuss why monetizing proximity to presidential statements creates another serious breach of public trust.

4. White House Prediction-Market Bets A longtime White House teleprompter operator is reportedly under investigation over suspicious prediction-market wagers involving presidential speeches. The controversy raises new questions about insider knowledge, corruption, and accountability.

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1. Trump Restores ICE Traffic Stops President Trump has reversed ICE's suspension of traffic stops following two fatal encounters. I examine the need for effective immigration enforcement and the credibility problems created when operations appear disorganized.

2. Todd Blanche Faces Senate Questions Todd Blanche is defending the Justice Department's record on the anti-weaponization fund and the Epstein files during his confirmation hearings. I explain why skeptical Senate Republicans may still demand answers before confirming him.

3. England Faces Argentina in the World Cup England has brought its best players home from foreign clubs for a highly anticipated World Cup showdown with Argentina. I am not much of a soccer fan, but this matchup could be one for the ages.

4. The Odyssey Earns Extraordinary Reviews Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey is receiving overwhelming praise from conservative, liberal, and middle-of-the-road critics. I plan to see it in IMAX and find out whether Nolan has delivered his best movie yet.

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1. Iran Threatens Critical Shipping Lanes I explain how the battles over the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea could drain American resources, raise costs, and allow Iran to keep destabilizing global trade.

2. The Federal Reserve Confronts Inflation I examine Kevin Warsh's testimony, the latest encouraging inflation data, and why the Federal Reserve is still keeping potential interest rate increases on the table.

3. ICE Suspends Traffic Stops After Fatal Shootings I look at the decision to suspend vehicle stops during immigration operations after two deadly encounters and what it could mean for deportation arrests.

4. Deportation Requires Strength Without Cruelty I make the case for enforcing our immigration laws while recognizing that voters want a government that is firm, careful, and compassionate in how deportations are carried out.

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1. South Carolina's Senate Race Begins Lindsey Graham's departure sets up a major Republican primary in South Carolina. I explain the likely candidates, Donald Trump's potential influence, and why Russell Fry could emerge as the favorite.

2. Trump Tightens the Iran Blockade The Trump administration is expanding pressure on Iran by enforcing a tougher blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. I break down the strategy, the impact on oil prices, and what it could mean for the Middle East.

3. Blue States Target the Paramount-Warner Merger Twelve Democrat-led states are trying to stop the proposed Paramount and Warner Brothers merger. I explain why CNN is at the center of the fight and what it says about the battle over America's media landscape.

4. Pentagon Leaks Raise New Questions Pete Hegseth is launching a task force to investigate Pentagon leaks, but the story is more complicated than politics. I explain why some Republicans believe the leaks exposed information Congress needed to know.

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1. Graham Platner Holds the Cards in Maine Bernie Sanders wants Graham Platner out of the Maine Senate race, but Platner has leverage over Democrats and may be refusing to leave without concessions. I explain the looming ballot deadline, the fight over his potential replacement, and why this mess could get even worse for Democrats.
2. Iran Escalates Near the Strait of Hormuz Iran is targeting commercial shipping with missiles and drones while the United States tightens pressure on Iranian oil sales. I explain how a U.S.-protected shipping channel near Oman is undermining Iran's strategy and why another military confrontation may be approaching.
3. Putin Tests NATO as America Sends Mixed Signals Vladimir Putin is probing European defenses while NATO allies grow increasingly concerned about America's commitment to the alliance. I look at Russian pressure against Finland, the Baltic states, and Poland, and why weakness now could lead to a much larger war later.
4. Tariffs Are Not Delivering the Promised Manufacturing Boom New economic data shows health care growing while manufacturing jobs decline and promised foreign investment falls short. I explain why tariffs are raising costs for American businesses without producing the manufacturing revival the country was promised.

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Stay grounded, stay informed, and keep the faith.

1. FIFA Reverses U.S. Soccer Red Card The American player is back after FIFA overturned a controversial red card through its independent appeals process. I explain what really happened and why the political reaction has been so revealing.

2. Ukraine Faces a Patriot Missile Shortage Ukraine is struggling to defend against Russian attacks as Patriot missile supplies run low. I look at what this says about America's defense manufacturing and military preparedness.

3. Turkey's Growing Role Inside NATO President Trump heads to meet with NATO allies as Turkey becomes an increasingly important, but increasingly complicated, strategic partner. I explain why the alliance still needs Erdogan despite serious concerns.

4. New Questions Surround Graham Plattner's Campaign Rumors continue to swirl that Graham Plattner could leave the race before Maine's ballot deadline. I break down what is being reported, why Democrats are nervous, and what it could mean politically.

Text ERICK to 33-777 for "Show Notes" and to stay updated on all things Erick Erickson.

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Stay grounded, stay informed, and keep the faith.

1. Immigration Fight After the Supreme Court The debate over birthright citizenship is far from over. I break down what the justices actually ruled and why much of the online outrage ignores what the Court really said.

2. Inflation Beats Wage Growth Hiring is slowing, inflation is outpacing wages, and Americans are beginning to blame the Trump administration for the economy. I explain why tariffs remain at the center of the debate.

3. House Republicans Stall Congress Over the SAVE Act A small group of Republicans is blocking House business to force action on the SAVE Act. I explain why the strategy is mostly symbolic and what it means for defense spending.

4. OpenAI's Proposed Deal With Washington OpenAI reportedly wants to give the Trump administration a stake in the company. I explain why I believe government ownership in private companies creates serious conflicts of interest.