ANZ Research has pulled forward its forecast for Australia’s first rate cut to February from May after soft inflation data. But US rates expectations have risen after strong US jobs growth. That combination has dragged the AUD down to post-Covid lows.

In our first bonus deep dive interview for 2025, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explains why China’s economy may well achieve its 5% growth target for 2024.

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Global markets are mixed ahead of big US and Japanese rate decisions later this week. US retail sales are solid. New Zealand’s Government announces a bigger than expected increase in bond issuance, and Australian consumers end the year better off.

For our final bonus Deep Dive interview of the year, ANZ’s Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga looks at the key themes of 2024 and at what 2025 might bring for the global economy.

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PMI results show the US economy is resilient, supporting only three Fed cuts in 2025. China’s retail sales disappoint again. NZ’s Government is expected to unveil a higher borrowing forecast today. Coldplay concerts in Auckland nudge inflation up a bit.

In the second in a series of bonus Deep Dive interviews to round out the year and to look ahead to 2025, I spoke with ANZ’s Head of Research for Asia, Khoon Goh, about Asia, ex China.

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Global markets are bracing for Fed rate cut on Thursday and a possible Bank of Japan hike on Friday. New Zealand’s economy is expected to report a triple-dip recession on Wednesday, before a rebound next year.

In the first in a series of bonus Deep Dive interviews to round out the year and to look ahead to 2025, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Raymond Yeung expects monetary policy loosening in the first quarter.

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The ECB cuts 25 bps as expected, but the Swiss National Bank surprises with 50 bps cut. US headline PPI inflation is hotter than expected, but core inflation is still cooling. Australia’s jobs market tightens as unemployment falls. And India’s inflation rate falls, clearing the way for the RBI to cut in February.

In our bonus deep-dive interview, as we start thinking about what to put on the table for Christmas, ANZ’s executive director for Agribusiness insights Michael Whitehead reveals what Australians eat and drink on Christmas Day.

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US inflation met forecasts. Markets now see a Fed rate cut next week as a sure thing. Japanese producer price inflation pressure builds for BoJ. Soft NZ data points to a triple dip recession. Australian jobs growth is seen keeping the RBA on its toes.

In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Commodity Strategist Soni Kumari says the global aluminium market faces a number of challenges over 2025.

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Global markets are mixed ahead of key US inflation data. The RBA holds, but is more comfortable on inflation, which saw the Aussie and Kiwi dollars drop 1%. And China’s exports haven’t experienced a pre-Trump bump…yet.

In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim explains how the new Reserve Bank of India Governor, could approach monetary policy, including with a new deputy in place.

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Oil prices rise 2% as Syria’s President flees the country, and as more stimulus is expected in China following a surprise politburo statement. The Aussie and Kiwi dollars get a boost; The RBA goes into its final meeting of the year with a slight tightening bias.

In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Executive Director for Agribusiness Insights, Michael Whitehead, has been down on Australia’s wheat, beef and sheep farms with mostly good news for farmers, starting with strong grain prices and a surprising reason.

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Markets have yet to open after the lightening-fast overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria over the weekend, which may further destabilise the Middle East. The Fed is seen on track to cut again next week. The RBA is expected to hold tomorrow.

In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing explains why he’s watching for a potential GDP target downgrade from China’s annual Central Economic Work Conference this week.

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Bitcoin holds above US$100,000, while stocks and bonds are mixed ahead of US jobs data. The euro holds up well despite the collapse of France’s government, and Australian consumer goods imports rose as retailers stocked up for Black Friday.

In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India,Sanjay Mathur, looks at how Indonesia can grow GDP even faster than its current rate of 5% per annum.

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