CrashLabs

#80 Otavio "Tavi" Costa | The Quiet Gold Repricing: Central Banks, AI, and the Return of Hard Assets


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Denis is back on the pod as something snapped in the gold market. While the mainstream blames “retail panic” and “overbought conditions,” Crescat’s macro strategist Otavio “Tavi” Costa thinks we’re witnessing the quietest act of monetary warfare in decades — one led not by retail investors, but by central banks front-running a sovereign balance-sheet crisis.

In this episode of CrashLabs, we tear into:

- Why the U.S. Treasury may be secretly re-accumulating gold at 90-year-low reserve levels.

- How the West’s debt spiral and the AI-era infrastructure boom could ignite a hard-asset supercycle.

- Why “value investing” isn’t dead — it’s just been starved of real collateral.

- The coming rotation from ideas to tangibles: mining, oil, and energy as the new tech.

- How automation and AI will rewrite the cost curve of mining — and who actually wins when the robots arrive.


00:00 Intro — The return of Denis

02:00 Gold’s 90-year-low reserves and central-bank accumulation

09:03 How retail panic is misreading the signal

21:51 Oil as the ignored hedge

34:17 The illusion of institutional capital

49:32 The AI-to-mining capital rotation

56:51 The coming automation boom in resource extraction

1:12:43 Tavi’s rule for conviction investing

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Disclosure: The opinions and information shared by Tavi in this discussion are his own, and not necessarily those of Crescat. Any investments discussed may or may not be held by Crescat. Investments carry risk including risk of loss.

This podcast does not provide any investment, financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax related advice or recommendations. The content in this podcast is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely. You must obtain more specific or professional advice before taking, or refraining from, any action or inaction on the basis of the contents of this podcast. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any other product and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of EarthLabs Inc. ("EarthLabs") and its respective directors, employees, officers, agents, shareholders, or affiliates. EarthLabs is not providing any investment, financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax related advice or recommendations in this podcast. EarthLabs makes no representations, warranties, or guarantees, whether express or implied, that the content in this podcast is accurate, complete, or up to date. Any and all liability is expressly disclaimed, and EarthLabs has no responsibility or liability whatsoever for the use of this podcast.   This podcast may include content provided by third parties. All statements and/or opinions expressed by third parties are solely the opinions and the responsibility of the person or entity providing those materials. Such materials do not necessarily reflect the opinion of EarthLabs. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced, in whole or in part without the express written consent of EarthLabs.EarthLabs, its affiliates and/or their respective directors, officers, employees and agents may, from time to time, buy and sell or otherwise effect transactions involving the securities of issuers which are featured or referenced in this podcast. Accordingly, EarthLabs, its affiliates and/or their respective directors, officers, employees and agents may realize significant gains or losses as a result of any variation in the price of the securities of any such issuers. EarthLabs does not endorse or accept any liability for any investment in any issuer referenced in this podcast and expressly advises listeners to rely solely on their own counsel, accountants, and other similar expert advisors for legal, accounting, tax, investment and other similar advice.

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CrashLabsBy Denis Laviolette

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