Learn more about Michael Wenderoth, Executive Coach: www.changwenderoth.com
SHOW NOTES:
Every day we’re told to be more confident, and that confidence leads to success. Is that truth – or a comforting fantasy? It’s true that under confidence can hold us back, that many leaders tend to be confident -- and that we promote and elect individuals who exude confidence. But there’s substantial evidence that overconfidence can lead to poor decisions, weak governance, and deep downsides. So what’s an honest, thoughtful self-doubting person -- who wants to rise, make an impact, steer their organization responsibly – supposed to do? I explore these questions with Don Moore, Professor of Leadership and Associate Dean at the Haas Berkeley School of Business. Don is the world expert on confidence and overconfidence, and author of the book, Perfectly Confident: Calibrating Your Decisions Wisely. We explore how to calibrate your confidence wisely -- and discuss practical strategies that can help good people get ahead, while elevating their work and life.
- “You can stay right, or you can stay married”
- It’s easy to drink the cool-aid, so what to do instead
- Assuming that we are overconfident in all things is problematic
- Tip: Gather information to know where you stand
- A 1st year tradition at Stanford’s Graduate School of Business that Don actually loves
- “Dispelling so many myths” and why Don wrote his book
- The takedown-breakdown: Does confidence cause success?
- Research: Simply visualizing positive outcomes “doesn’t do jack” -- unless it encourages you to do this
- Beware the siren song of happy talk and comforting lies
- Finding the middle way
- A Haas principle: “Confidence without Attitude”
- What the research shows about how overconfidence manifests itself: overestimation, overplacement, overprecision
- Top tip: “Keep track, keep score, and hold yourself to account”
- Explaining a nuanced concept: How to think in probability distributions and expected values
- Hedging bets
- 2 pure gold tips, based on research: How do I show up confident when I am not – or will be penalized as being weak or incompetent if I don’t?
- Verbal vs nonverbal expressions of confidence
- The trap that leaders face
- Findings on gender and culture differences in confidence and overconfidence
- Better ways to do research on self-doubt
- Don underscores 2 keys messages he wants you to take away
BIO AND LINKS:
Don Moore is Associate Dean for Academic Affairs and holds the Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership at the Haas School of Business at the University of California at Berkeley. He received his bachelor’s degree in Psychology from Carleton College and his Ph.D. in Organization Behavior from Northwestern University. His research interests include overconfidence, including when people think they are better than they actually are, when people think they are better than others, and when people are too sure they know the truth. His research has appeared in popular press outlets and academic journals, from Psychological Review to Harvard Business Review. Don is the author, with Max Bazerman, of Decision Leadership and the widely used textbook, Judgement in Manageral Decision Making. He teaches popular classes on managing organizations, negotiation, and decision making. He is only occasionally overconfident.
- Perfectly Confident, the Book: https://www.harperacademic.com/book/9780063013902/perfectly-confident/
- Haas Faculty Profile: https://haas.berkeley.edu/faculty/moore-don/
- LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/don-moore-01725b/
- LearnMoore at the Moore Accuracy Lab at Berkeley Haas: http://learnmoore.org/about.html (includes his Self-Aggrandizing Autobiographical sketch)
- Michael’s article in HBR on the harsh reality of who gets promoted in most organizations: https://hbr.org/2016/04/great-leaders-embrace-office-politics
- Selected Articles and Interviews in the popular and academic press:
- Don’s article with Max Bazerman, Leadership & Overconfidence, Behavioral Science and Policy: https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=62299
- HBR interview: Confidence Doesn’t Always Boost Performance: https://hbr.org/2020/11/confidence-doesnt-always-boost-performance
- Don’s research “The trouble with overconfidence” https://psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2F0033-295X.115.2.502
- Don’s research on the effect of Verbal vs Nonverbal vs verbal expressions of confidence: https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2018-50999-001
- Don’s research findings Overconfidence Across Cultures: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/328395167_Overconfidence_Across_Cultures
- The consequences of voting for overconfident leaders: https://haas.berkeley.edu/faculty-spotlight/the-consequences-of-voting-for-over-confident-leaders-professor-don-moores-op-ed-gives-expert-insight-into-leadership-during-a-crisis/
- Twitter: https://twitter.com/donandrewmoore
- Michael’s Book, Get Promoted: https://changwenderoth.com/#tve-jump-180481ecea3
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