In episode 170, Neil examines how Apple is pulling away from the competition to a degree that we haven’t ever seen before. Given how we are just now entering the wearables era, implications of this shift will be measured in the coming decades, not years. Additional topics include WWDC 2020, Apple’s revised product strategy, the competitive landscape, and Apple’s lead in wearables.

Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.   

Links:

Apple Is Pulling Away From the Competition

Above Avalon Episode 149: Letting Go of the Rope

Apple’s Product Strategy Is Changing

My Apple WWDC 2020 Review

iPhone Sales Share Rises During Pandemic

4Q19 Apple Watch and AirPods Installed Base Estimates

Above Avalon Membership info page (signup forms, sample daily updates, list of member privileges and benefits, answers to frequently asked questions)

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Financial market commentators have been stumped by the stock market’s resiliency during the pandemic. Maybe they shouldn't be so surprised. In episode 169, Neil examines the question of whether or not Wall Street tried to predict the pandemic’s turn without actually knowing what such a turn would look like. Additional topics include two truths when it comes to how Wall Street functions, the various predictions for Apple, lessons found with Wall Street’s nature of predicting turns, and how predicting turns ends up being about predicting when calmness will enter and leave the market.

Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.   

Links:

Predicting Turns on Wall Street (Above Avalon weekly article)

Jeremy Siegel on CNBC (YouTube)

Market’s Fear Gauge Reaches Decade High (Above Avalon daily update)

iPhone Sales Share Rises During Pandemic (Above Avalon daily update)

More on Predicting Turns on Wall Street (Above Avalon daily update)

Above Avalon Membership info page (signup forms, sample daily updates, list of member privileges and benefits, answers to frequently asked questions)

Above Avalon Daily Updates (list of headlines for stories found in approximately 1,000 updates going back to May 2015)

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This past week marked the fifth anniversary of Neil launching Above Avalon membership. Above Avalon continues to thrive with a sustainable business model based solely on paid memberships. In episode 168, Neil gives a behind-the-scenes look at Above Avalon’s business model. Additional topics include: Above Avalon’s history, Neil’s “secrets” to success, and his largest challenges found with a paid membership model.

Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.   

Links:

Above Avalon Membership Turns Five Years Old (Above Avalon weekly article)

Above Avalon Membership info page (signup forms, sample daily updates, list of member privileges and benefits, answers to frequently asked questions)

Above Avalon Daily Updates (list of headlines for stories found in approximately 1,000 updates going back to May 2015)

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The complete Above Avalon Podcast episode archive (168 episodes) is available here.

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Share buyback is one of a handful of tools that boards and management teams have to properly manage balance sheets. However, economic fallout related to the pandemic has led to a new round of criticism aimed at buyback. In episode 167, Neil discusses how Apple has become the poster child of responsible share repurchases. Additional topics include: Apple’s recent stock buyback activity, Neil’s expectation for Apple’s upcoming update to its buyback program, the latest criticism surrounding buyback, repurchasing shares in a pandemic, and the harsh reality found with stock buybacks.

Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.   

Links:

Apple’s $460 Billion Stock Buyback (Above Avalon weekly article)

Share Buyback 101: An Examination of Apple’s Share Repurchase Strategy (Above Avalon report)

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Apple and its peers find themselves in the most difficult operating environment they have ever faced. In episode 166, Neil discusses Apple’s strategy for navigating the coronavirus pandemic. Additional topics include the various challenges Apple is currently facing, Apple’s toolmaking mission, how society doesn’t stop during a pandemic, and why strong brands get stronger during difficult times.

Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.   

Links:

Moving Forward in a Pandemic (Above Avalon weekly article)

Episode 165 - The iPad’s First Decade (Above Avalon podcast)

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There was no shortage of writers, pundits, and industry analysts using the iPad’s 10th anniversary las month to give eulogies for the product in terms of its inability to be revolutionary, grab momentum, or even just meet expectations. In episode 165, Neil discusses his perspective on the iPad’s first decade and why we shouldn’t feel bad for the iPad. Additional topics include a different way of looking at the iPad unveiling in 2010, how the iPad foreshadowed iPhone success, how Apple pivoted the iPad, the iPad’s primary problem today, and how the iPad’s value is found in letting the product be itself.

Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.   

Links:

Don’t Feel Bad for the iPad (Above Avalon)

The iPad Awkwardly Turns 10 (Daring Fireball)

The Tragic iPad (Stratechery)

iPad at 10. An affair forever (Om)

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We are entering a new chapter in music streaming. In episode 164, Neil discusses how Spotify’s attempt to evolve from a dedicated music streaming service to an audio company ends up reflecting broader changes in the music streaming space. Additional topics include Spotify earnings, the music streaming war between Spotify and Apple Music, the problem with Spotify’s current business, roadblocks / advantages facing Spotify as it evolves into a different kind of company, and why Apple shouldn’t ignore Spotify’s evolution. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.   

Links:

Spotify Is Evolving (Above Avalon weekly article)

The Music Industry’s Problem (Above Avalon daily update)

Above Avalon Episode 159: AirPods as a Platform (podcast)

Above Avalon Daily Updates page

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In addition to being a sales success, the Apple Watch has ushered in a paradigm shift in computing. In episode 163, Neil discusses how the Apple Watch is fundamentally changing the way we use technology. Additional topics include paradigm shifts, Apple Watch sales, Apple’s new Apple Watch Connected initiative, stationary smart speakers as extensions of existing products, and Neil’s new framework for recognizing paradigm shifts in computing. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.   

Links:

Apple Watch and a Paradigm Shift in Computing (Above Avalon weekly article)

Above Avalon Episode 118: Apple Watch Is a Bridge to the Future (Above Avalon podcast)

Apple Watch Unit Sales and Installed Base Calculations (Above Avalon daily update)

The Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products (Above Avalon weekly article)

A Stationary Smart Speaker Mirage (Above Avalon weekly article)

Product Vision: How Apple Thinks About the World (Above Avalon report)

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The complete Above Avalon Podcast episode archive (163 episodes) is available here.

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At the start of a new year, there is less value found in coming up with predictions than there is in looking at questions facing the company. In episode 162, Neil goes over his list of questions for Apple in 2020, and the discussion culminates with one overarching question that covers Apple’s largest challenge and opportunity. Additional topics include why predictions contain so little value, the number of Apple users, and Apple in emerging markets. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.   

Links:

The Big Question Now Facing Apple (Above Avalon Weekly Article)

Above Avalon Episode 160: Let’s Talk “Apple Tax” (Above Avalon Podcast)

Above Avalon Episode 143: Look at the Capex (Above Avalon Podcast)

Above Avalon Episode 161: Apple’s Spectacular Year on Wall Street (Above Avalon Podcast)

Share Buyback 101: An Examination of Apple’s Share Repurchase Strategy (Above Avalon Report)

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The complete Above Avalon Podcast episode archive (162 episodes) is available here.

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Something has clearly changed when it comes to the way Wall Street is treating AAPL. For the first time with Tim Cook as CEO, Apple shares are trading at a premium to the overall market. In episode 161, Neil discusses how changing behavior as it relates to passive versus active investing may be creating a type of perfect storm for AAPL shares. Additional discussion topics include Apple’s valuation, free cash flow, momentum shifting to passive investing, and Warren Buffett. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.   

Links:

Apple's $500 Billion Year on Wall Street (Above Avalon Weekly Article)

Above Avalon Episode 104: Obscene Amounts of Cash (Above Avalon Podcast)

Bogle Sounds a Warning on Index Funds (WSJ)

Behind the Market Swoon: The Herdlike Behavior of Computerized Trading (WSJ)

With Stocks at Fresh Highs, Investors’ Portfolios Look Alike (WSJ)

Is Apple Being Valued Like a Services Company? / Updated Apple Earnings Model (Above Avalon Daily Update)

Above Avalon membership page

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The complete Above Avalon Podcast episode archive (161 episodes) is available here.

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