The whole discourse around a “permanent underclass” always seemed somewhat farcical to me — at best a distraction, at worst an actively harmful meme insofar as it freaks people out and tries to provide (shallow, but nevertheless) justification going whole hog on building strong AI. So it has been with a sense of dismay that I’ve seen this phrase come into popular parlance 1 2 3, and increasingly come to motivate a sort of frenzied upward striving in my second- and third-degree connections. Among those I know, the standard framing is that we need to “get the bag” while there's still a chance, to take advantage of these last few years of income-potential to escape whatever horrible fate lays in store for the rest of humanity. I think that events are unlikely to play out this way; even setting aside “doom” arguments (for reasons I’ll get to below), I think history shows that in times of transition, wealth is far less of a guarantee than people intuitively think. So “the bag” will provide little guarantee of thriving, or even surviving, into a “post-AI world”.

There have certainly been arguments against the “grab the bag” thesis (as I’ll henceforth refer [...]

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Outline:

(03:22) Who is the Modern Handloom Weaver?

(06:44) The Medieval Peasantry and the Senatorial Order

(12:15) But where did the senators go?

(15:33) Who is the Modern Roman Senator?

(18:43) Possible Futures

(24:32) Centralization of Power

(28:28) Digression: What I actually mean by grab the bag

(30:00) Conclusion

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Source:

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.