LessWrong posts by zvi

By zvi

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LessWrong posts by zvi episodes:

September 03, 2025“Startup Roundup #3” by Zvi
Startup Roundups (#1, #2) look like they’re settling in as an annual tradition.
I’ve been catching up on queued roundups this week as the family was on vacation. I am back now but the weekly may be pushed to Friday as I dig out from the backlog.
The Central Themes
There is a common theme to the vignettes offered across the years. The central perspective has not much changed.
I would summarize the perspective this way, first in brief and then with more words:
Founding SV-style startups or being an early employee is great alpha.
You create more value, and you capture more of that value.
Building real things that scale is so valuable that you can afford a lot of nonsense.
Venture capital similarly does foolish stuff a lot but the successes are so good that if they [...]

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Outline:
(00:25) The Central Themes
(04:12) How To Interpret Advice From Paul Graham
(07:52) Investor Meetings Do Not Create Optimal Strategic Choices
(09:23) Y-Combinator Is A Great Deal
(09:43) Avoiding Marking to Market
(13:59) Worse Deals Are Worse
(17:55) Avoiding Having A Market At All
(19:18) Eventually Be Hustling
(21:32) Without Selection Venture Capital Loses Money
(23:01) Finding Your Startup Idea
(28:00) Some Ideas And Builders Are Bad
(29:36) Whatever Sucks A Lot For You Will Suck A Lot For You
(30:34) Stay Away From Ayahuasca
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First published:
September 3rd, 2025

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qgJfkaxdncpRQCDyg/startup-roundup-3

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32min
September 02, 2025 “Traffic and Transit Roundup #1” by Zvi
Traffic and transit are finally getting a roundup all their own.
I’ll start out with various victory laps on the awesomeness that is New York City Congestion pricing, which should hopefully now be a settled matter, then do a survey of everything else.

New York City Congestion Pricing Redux
We spent years fighting to get congestion pricing passed in New York City.
Once it was in place, everyone saw that it worked. The city was a better place, almost everyone was better off, and also we got bonus tax revenue. And this is only the bare minimum viable product, we could do so much better.
We had a big debate over whether congestion pricing is good until it was implemented. At this point, with traffic speeds downton up 15% and business visits improving, it is very clear this was exactly the huge [...]

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Outline:
(00:24) New York City Congestion Pricing Redux
(10:34) New York City Light Rail
(11:51) Fare Evasion (1)
(14:55) Fare Evasion (2)
(16:07) Free Transit
(19:52) The Last Train
(20:11) Smooth Operator
(20:49) Mass Transit And Health
(21:51) Ah California High Speed Rail
(23:58) Amtrak
(25:18) The High Speed Rail We Actually Need Is Acela
(30:05) The Other High Speed Rail Project
(31:22) Caltrain
(32:07) Bike Lanes
(32:24) Airports
(32:54) Jones Act Bonus Episodes
(36:55) In Brief
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First published:
September 2nd, 2025

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qtZ5CgDWe3BuiH8Wn/traffic-and-transit-roundup-1

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43min
September 01, 2025“Dating Roundup #7: Back to Basics” by Zvi
There's quite a lot in the queue since last time, so this is the first large chunk of it, which focuses on apps and otherwise finding an initial connection, and some things that directly impact that.
Table of Contents
You’re Single Because You Have No Friends To Date.
You’re Single Because You Aren’t Willing To Be Dungeon Master.
You’re Single Because You Didn’t Listen To My Friend's Podcast.
You’re Single Because You Flunk The Eye Contact Test.
You’re Single Because The Women Don’t Hit On The Men.
You’re Single Because When A Woman Did Hit On You, You Choked.
You’re Single Because You Don’t Know The Flirtation Escalation Ladder.
You’re Single Because You Will Actually Never Open.
You’re Single Because We Let Tinder Win.
You’re Single Because The Apps Are Bad On Purpose To Make You Click.
[...]
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Outline:
(00:22) You're Single Because You Have No Friends To Date
(02:49) You're Single Because You Aren't Willing To Be Dungeon Master
(04:35) You're Single Because You Didn't Listen To My Friend's Podcast
(06:20) You're Single Because You Flunk The Eye Contact Test
(07:45) You're Single Because The Women Don't Hit On The Men
(12:27) You're Single Because When A Woman Did Hit On You, You Choked
(17:14) You're Single Because You Don't Know The Flirtation Escalation Ladder
(24:58) You're Single Because You Will Actually Never Open
(28:11) You're Single Because We Let Tinder Win
(29:43) You're Single Because The Apps Are Bad On Purpose To Make You Click
(30:55) You're Single Because You Present Super Weird
(35:09) You're Single Because You Have The Wrong Hobbies
(37:00) You're Single Because You Do The Wrong Kind Of Magic
(38:17) You're Single And All That Rejection Really Sucks
(41:54) You're Single Because Dating Apps Are Designed Like TikTok
(45:26) You're Single And Here's Aella With a Tea Update
(45:40) You're Single Because You Don't Have a Date Me Doc
(47:12) You're Single Because You Didn't Hire a Matchmaker
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First published:
September 1st, 2025

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZHYenMdmXEKR9YLwY/dating-roundup-7-back-to-basics

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52min
August 29, 2025“AI #131 Part 2: Various Misaligned Things” by Zvi
It doesn’t look good, on many fronts, especially taking a stake in Intel.
We continue.
Table of Contents
America Extorts 10% of Intel. Nice company you got there. Who's next?
The Quest For No Regulations Whatsoever. a16z is at it again, Brockman joins.
The Quest for Sane Regulations. Dean Ball surveys the state legislative landscape.
Chip City. Nvidia beats earnings, Huawei plans to triple chip production.
Once Again The Counterargument On Chip City. Sriram Krishnan makes a case.
Power Up, Power Down. I for one do not think windmills are destroying America.
People Really Do Not Like AI. Some dislike it more than others. A lot more.
Did Google Break Their Safety Pledges With Gemini Pro 2.5? I think they did.
Safety Third at xAI. Grok 4 finally has a model card. Better late than never.
[...]
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First published:
August 29th, 2025

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wcp8hcQwqhd8nDA2x/ai-131-part-2-various-misaligned-things

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1min
August 28, 2025 “AI #131 Part 1: Gemini 2.5 Flash Image is Cool” by Zvi
Once again we’ve reached the point where the weekly update needs to be split in two. Thus, the alignment and policy coverage will happen tomorrow. Today covers the rest.
The secret big announcement this week was Claude for Chrome. This is a huge deal. It will be rolling out slowly. When I have access or otherwise know more, so will you.
The obvious big announcement was Gemini Flash 2.5 Image. Everyone agrees this is now the clear best image editor available. It is solid as an image generator, but only as one among many on that front. Editing abilities, including its ability to use all its embedded world knowledge, seem super cool.
The third big story was the suicide of Adam Raine, which appears to have been enabled in great detail by ChatGPT. His parents are suing OpenAI and the initial facts very much do not [...]

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Outline:
(01:14) Language Models Offer Mundane Utility
(05:42) Language Models Don't Offer Mundane Utility
(06:26) Huh, Upgrades
(07:11) Fun With Image Generation
(12:53) On Your Marks
(16:13) Water Water Everywhere
(20:13) Get My Agent On The Line
(25:21) Choose Your Fighter
(27:52) Deepfaketown and Botpocalypse Soon
(31:15) You Drive Me Crazy
(36:51) The Worst Tragedy So Far
(43:22) Unprompted Attention
(44:27) Copyright Confrontation
(45:00) The Art of the Jailbreak
(45:13) Get Involved
(45:34) Introducing
(46:23) In Other AI News
(49:10) Show Me the Money
(51:27) Quiet Speculations
(51:51) Rhetorical Innovation
(01:01:46) The Week in Audio
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First published:
August 28th, 2025

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hSCDe8wJnxRmRTxfr/ai-131-part-1-gemini-2-5-flash-image-is-cool

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1h 3min
August 27, 2025“Are They Starting To Take Our Jobs?” by Zvi
Is generative AI making it harder for young people to find jobs?
My answer is:
Yes, definitely, in terms of for any given job that exists finding the job and getting hired. That's getting harder. AI is most definitely screwing up that process.
Yes, probably, in terms of employment in automation-impacted sectors. It always seemed odd to think otherwise, and this week's new study has strong evidence here.
Maybe, overall, in terms of the jobs available (excluding search and matching effects from #1), because AI should be increasing employment in areas not being automated yet, and that effect can be small and still dominate.

The claims go back and forth on the employment effects of AI. As Derek Thompson points out, if you go by articles in the popular press, we’ve gone from ‘possibly’ to ‘definitely yes’ to ‘almost certainly no’ until what Derek [...]
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First published:
August 27th, 2025

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/z38K3ELXSWde8TqnL/are-they-starting-to-take-our-jobs

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11min
August 26, 2025 “Reports Of AI Not Progressing Or Offering Mundane Utility Are Often Greatly Exaggerated” by Zvi
In the wake of the confusions around GPT-5, this week had yet another round of claims that AI wasn’t progressing, or AI isn’t or won’t create much value, and so on. There were reports that one study in particular impacted Wall Street, and as you would expect it was not a great study. Situational awareness is not what you’d hope.
I’ve gathered related coverage here, to get it out of the way before whatever Google is teasing (Gemini 3.0? Something else?) arrives to potentially hijack our attention.
We’ll start with the MIT study on State of AI in Business, discuss the recent set of ‘AI is slowing down’ claims as part of the larger pattern, and then I will share a very good attempted explanation from Steven Byrnes of some of the ways economists get trapped into failing to look at what future highly capable AIs would [...]

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Outline:
(01:02) Standing On Lack of AI Business
(04:23) Claims Of Zero Returns Do Not Mean What You Might Think
(05:35) Crossing The Divide
(09:23) Unrealistic (or Premature) Expectations
(10:40) Claims Of Prohibitive Lock-In Effects Are Mostly Hype
(12:10) Nothing Ever Changes About Claims That Nothing Ever Changes
(14:20) Ask What AI Can Do For You
(15:48) The Pattern Of Claiming a Slowdown Continues
(18:28) A Sensible Move
(18:39) Who Deserves The Credit And Who Deserves The Blame
(20:39) Mistakes From Applying Standard Economics To Future AIs
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First published:
August 26th, 2025

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EAdzemvd5kT8PyKnR/reports-of-ai-not-progressing-or-offering-mundane-utility

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33min
August 25, 2025 “Arguments About AI Consciousness Seem Highly Motivated And At Best Overconfident” by Zvi
I happily admit I am deeply confused about consciousness.
I don’t feel confident I understand what it is, what causes it, which entities have it, what future entities might have it, to what extent it matters and why, or what we should do about these questions. This applies both in terms of finding the answers and what to do once we find them, including the implications for how worried we should be about building minds smarter and more capable than human minds.
Some people respond to this uncertainty by trying to investigate these questions further. Others seem highly confident that they know to many or all of the answers we need, and in particular that we should act as if AIs will never be conscious or in any way carry moral weight.
Claims about all aspects of the future of AI are often highly motivated.
[...]

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Outline:
(02:40) Asking The Wrong Questions
(08:47) How To Usefully Predict And Interact With an AI
(11:23) The Only Thing We Have To Fear
(14:45) Focused Fixation
(20:13) What Even Is Consciousness Anyway?
(23:03) Most People Who Think An AI Is Currently Conscious Are Thinking This For Unjustified Reasons
(24:42) Mustafa's Case Against AI Consciousness
(36:20) Where Are They Going Without Ever Knowing The Way
(37:38) When We Talk About AI Consciousness Things Get Weird
(41:03) We Don't Talk About AI Consciousness
(44:41) Some Things To Notice
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First published:
August 25th, 2025

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/F6Q3kC7ATjQpC4YAP/arguments-about-ai-consciousness-seem-highly-motivated-and

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48min
August 22, 2025 “DeepSeek v3.1 Is Not Having a Moment” by Zvi
What if DeepSeek released a model claiming 66 on SWE and almost no one tried using it? Would it be any good? Would you be able to tell? Or would we get the shortest post of the year?
Why We Haven’t Seen v4 or r2
Why are we settling for v3.1 and have yet to see DeepSeek release v4 or r2 yet?
Eleanor Olcott and Zijing Wu: Chinese artificial intelligence company DeepSeek delayed the release of its new model after failing to train it using Huawei's chips, highlighting the limits of Beijing's push to replace US technology.
DeepSeek was encouraged by authorities to adopt Huawei's Ascend processor rather than use Nvidia's systems after releasing its R1 model in January, according to three people familiar with the matter.

But the Chinese start-up encountered persistent technical issues during its R2 training process using Ascend chips, prompting it to use Nvidia chips [...]
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Outline:
(00:24) Why We Haven't Seen v4 or r2
(01:49) Introducing DeepSeek v3.1
(04:34) Signs of Life
(06:57) How Should We Update?
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First published:
August 22nd, 2025

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gBnfwLqxcF4zyBE2J/deepseek-v3-1-is-not-having-a-moment

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9min
August 21, 2025 “AI #130: Talking Past The Sale” by Zvi
One potentially big event was that DeepSeek came out with v3.1. Initial response was very quiet, but this is DeepSeek and there are some strong scores especially on SWE and people may need time to process the release. So I’m postponing my coverage of this to give us time to learn more.
Meta is restructuring its AI operations, including a hiring freeze. Some see this as some sign of an AI pullback. I don’t think that is right.
Nor do I think what they are doing with their Ai companions is right, as we got a look inside their 200 page document of what they think is acceptable. I wrote about current AI Companion Conditions at Meta and also xAI.
The weirdest event of the week was America and China both self-sabotaging on chips. America is trying to sell Nvidia H20s to China and looks open [...]

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Outline:
(01:44) Language Models Offer Mundane Utility
(06:58) Language Models Don't Offer Mundane Utility
(12:54) Huh, Upgrades
(17:41) Absurd Sycophancy
(21:19) The Real Alignment Problem Is We Don't Know How To Align Models
(29:15) Unprompted Suggestions
(29:55) On Your Marks
(34:11) Choose Your Fighter
(36:46) Preserve Our History
(40:48) Autonomous Friendly Robots
(42:00) Deepfaketown and Botpocalypse Soon
(46:25) Oops I Did It Again
(49:38) You Drive Me Crazy
(56:12) They Took Our Jobs
(59:28) Get Involved
(59:42) Introducing
(01:00:02) In Other AI News
(01:04:19) Show Me the Money
(01:08:59) Lol We're Meta
(01:13:33) Quiet Speculations
(01:16:14) The Quest for Sane Regulations
(01:16:35) Chip City
(01:27:33) The Week in Audio
(01:35:15) Rhetorical Innovation
(01:42:09) Misaligned!
(01:42:44) Open Models
(01:45:48) AI Model Welfare
(01:48:41) Aligning a Smarter Than Human Intelligence is Difficult
(01:51:08) People Are Worried About AI Killing Everyone
(01:55:02) The Lighter Side
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First published:
August 21st, 2025

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dt22xhz4jeynahRY4/ai-130-talking-past-the-sale

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1h 59min

FAQs about LessWrong posts by zvi:

How many episodes does LessWrong posts by zvi have?

The podcast currently has 397 episodes available.