In this article David Oks takes a familiar story about technology and jobs, the idea that ATMs automated banking without destroying teller work, and turns it on its head, arguing that the real disruption came later from the smartphone era. Using the history of bank branches, bank tellers, and mobile banking, he explores a broader point about technological change: that the biggest effects often come not when a new tool replaces part of a job, but when it creates an entirely new way of doing things that makes the old role far less necessary.

* 00:00 - Introduction

* 07:17 - ATMs didn’t kill bank teller jobs

* 20:32 - But iPhones actually did

* 26:25 - Automating a job is much harder than making it irrelevant

https://open.substack.com/pub/davidoks/p/why-the-atm-didnt-kill-bank-teller?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

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A short story by Tomás Bjartur

https://open.substack.com/pub/tomasbjartur/p/the-elect?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

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In this post Dean W. Ball explores the gradual nature of life and death, drawing a poignant parallel between the passing of his father and the ongoing decline of the American republic. Using a recent policy skirmish between the AI firm Anthropic and the U.S. Department of War over the military deployment of the Claude AI system as a focal point, he examines the shifting dynamics of government power and private enterprise. Ultimately, he invites readers to look beyond traditional partisan divides and carefully consider how the control of frontier AI will shape the future of human liberty.

* 00:00 - Introduction

* 00:05 - One

* 02:22 - Two

* 04:52 - Three

* 06:52 - Four

* 18:19 - Five

https://open.substack.com/pub/hyperdimensional/p/clawed?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

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In this post, Scott Alexander examines the legal and contractual implications of the Department of War's "all lawful use" demand for AI systems, breaking down what US law actually permits regarding mass domestic surveillance and autonomous weapons, and why the phrase "lawful use" provides far less protection than most people assume.

* 00:00 - Introduction

* 02:42 - Mass domestic surveillance: more than you wanted to know

* 08:59 - Autonomous weapons: more than you wanted to know

* 13:21 - Comments on OpenAI’s FAQ

* 17:51 - Questions that you should be asking

https://open.substack.com/pub/astralcodexten/p/all-lawful-use-much-more-than-you?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

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In this essay, Citrini and Alap Shah construct a fictional macro memo written from the perspective of June 2028, using the format of financial retrospective analysis to explore a single underexamined scenario: what happens when AI adoption succeeds beyond all expectations, and that success becomes the source of catastrophic economic disruption. The piece traces how accelerating AI capability interacts with the structures of the white-collar labour market, corporate spending, consumer demand, credit markets, and government fiscal policy — identifying the feedback loops that connect each layer into a single, self-reinforcing system. The authors are explicit that this is a thought exercise rather than a forecast, and the essay closes by returning the reader to February 2026, framing the scenario as a risk to model and prepare for rather than a fate already in motion.

* 00:00 - Introduction

* 00:56 - Macro Memo

* 00:57 - The Consequences of Abundant Intelligence

* 05:33 - How It Started

* 10:18 - When Friction Went to Zero

* 19:17 - From Sector Risk to Systemic Risk

* 27:47 - The Intelligence Displacement Spiral

* 32:45 - The Daisy Chain of Correlated Bets

* 47:34 - The Battle Against Time

* 54:12 - The Intelligence Premium Unwind

* 56:43 - Acknowledgements

https://open.substack.com/pub/citrini/p/2028gic?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

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In this essay, Dan Kagan-Kans argues that the political left has largely refused to engage seriously with artificial intelligence, instead settling on a dismissive consensus that treats it as little more than "spicy autocomplete." Drawing on voices from left-wing publications, podcasts, academics, and politicians, he traces how this attitude took hold, examines the understandable reasons for skepticism alongside the costs of letting skepticism harden into denial, and makes the case that by ceding the AI conversation to the right, the left risks being unprepared for, and unable to shape, one of the most consequential technological shifts in history.

* 00:00 - Introduction

* 00:16 - Abdication

* 02:31 - The new consensus

* 10:55 - The con

* 13:57 - Reasons to be skeptical

* 16:52 - Academia

* 21:45 - Exceptions and the right

* 25:39 - Costs and missed opportunities

https://open.substack.com/pub/transformernews/p/the-left-is-missing-out-on-ai-sanders-doctorow-bender-bores?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

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In this article, Kelsey Piper tackles a persistent claim that keeps circulating in prestigious publications: that AI language models are "just" next-word predictors, stochastic parrots, or "spicy autocomplete." She argues this framing — while containing a kernel of truth about one stage of how models are trained — has become a form of "highbrow misinformation" that leaves the public less equipped to understand what AI actually is and what it can do today. Drawing on hands-on demonstrations and a useful concept borrowed from climate discourse, Piper makes the case that it's time to retire this particular talking point, regardless of where you land on the broader questions about AI's impact.

* 00:00 - Introduction

* 03:53 - How language models work

* 12:36 - It’s 2026, and AIs can do complex tasks independently

https://open.substack.com/pub/theargument/p/when-technically-true-becomes-actually?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

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In this interview, Gwern sits down with Adam Mastroianni at the 2025 Inkhaven writing residency — an experimental blogging bootcamp held at Lighthaven in Berkeley — to talk about the messy, serendipitous origins of his writing. The conversation covers how he develops ideas from initial sparks to finished pieces, the mental habits and frameworks he relies on to stay prolific, his views on the creative potential (and limitations) of collaborating with LLMs, and why he thinks the conventional "blog" format is the wrong paradigm for most writers. There's also a lively audience Q&A where Inkhaven participants push back on some of his more contrarian takes about publishing and perfectionism. It's a candid, practical look at how one of the internet's most distinctive essayists actually works.

00:00 - Introduction

* 03:40 - Opening Speech

* 06:22 - Poems & Incubation

* 13:15 - Polymath

* 14:59 - The Apprenticeship

* 17:54 - Self-Experimentation

* 22:09 - The Writing Pipeline

* 24:55 - Tools For Thought

* 30:00 - Blog Brain: “That’s A Post”

* 34:47 - Essay Archetype: Universal “if and only if” Concrete

* 38:49 - The Voice: Ideas As Earworms

* 40:30 - Audience Q&A

* 40:32 - Modalities & Comparative Advantage

* 43:37 - Publishing Thresholds

* 45:56 - Wikis Vs Blogs

* 52:26 - LLM Followup Questions

https://gwern.net/interview-inkhaven

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In this essay, David Oks examines a startling reversal in global economic development. For nearly two decades, poor countries appeared to finally be catching up to rich ones, validating a long-standing prediction of economic theory and offering genuine hope for global convergence. Then, suddenly and dramatically, this progress ground to a halt. Through an analysis of recent research and economic data, Oks explores what drove this brief period of catch-up growth and why it ended so abruptly, ultimately challenging optimistic narratives about globalization and development.

* 00:00 - Introduction

* 03:49 - A short history of (non)convergence

* 11:40 - Convergence comes alive?

* 17:37 - What if it was just China?

https://open.substack.com/pub/davidoks/p/why-poor-countries-stopped-catching-690?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

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In this essay, Kuiper responds to reader questions sparked by his original piece on VeggieTales theology. He tackles fascinating queries—do sentient vegetables need salvation? What happens if you put a human soul in a pickle?—by drawing on established Christian teaching about angels and non-human moral agents. He also investigates claims that the show broke its own rule about never depicting Jesus as a vegetable, examining several episodes across different eras of the franchise to determine whether the creative team stayed true to the spirit of their founding principles.

* 00:00 - Introduction

* 00:30 - Aren’t the vegetables basically people?

* 03:40 - Is personhood tied to embodiment?

* 04:50 - Did VeggieTales break Phil Vischer’s rules by portraying baby Jesus as a vegetable?

* 07:46 - Little Drummer Boy (2011)

* 08:40 - The Star of Christmas (2002)

* 11:10 - VeggieTales, under new management

* 12:31 - The DreamWorks era

* 18:16 - The VeggieTales Show (2019 to 2022)

* 21:05 - Did VeggieTales break the rule about depicting Jesus as a vegetable?

* 21:45 - Does it matter?

https://open.substack.com/pub/justinkuiper/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-the?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

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