A 'frontier reasoning model' from just 1000 examples (s1). A $100B Musk bid for power. Gemini 2, Rand and warning from Amodei. Here’s 7-8 developments you may have missed but which I would argue help us understand how the next few years will play out. From labour vs capital to automating rival companies and countries, and from non-profit shenanigans to new mini-docs, there was just too much for me not to make a vid.

GiveWell: https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities

AI Insiders ($9!): https://www.patreon.com/AIExplained

s1 Paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2501.19393
Musk Bid: https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/musks-97-4-billion-openai-bid-piles-pressure-on-altman-f6749e6c?mod=hp_lead_pos1
Altman Reply: https://x.com/sama/status/1889059531625464090?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Google vs OpenAI: https://x.com/sama/status/1888703820596977684
RAND Study: https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA3691-4.html
Dev Meetup: https://x.com/btibor91/status/1888976302621040852
Altman $100 Trillion: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/31/technology/sam-altman-open-ai-chatgpt.html
Karpathy Vid: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xTGNNLPyMI
Amodei Warning: https://www.anthropic.com/news/paris-ai-summit
Bengio Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6HDjVncL5Go

Chapters:
00:00 - Intro
01:37 -  AGI Inches Closer
04:26 - ‘Super-Exponential’
05:58 - Musk Bid
07:34 - Luxury Goods and Land
09:05 - ‘Benefits All Humanity’
12:52 - ‘National Security’
14:21 - s1
20:33 - Final thoughts


Non-hype Newsletter: https://signaltonoise.beehiiv.com/