In this episode of The Cognitive Revolution, Nathan explores AI forecasting and AGI Lab oversight with Dean W. Ball and Daniel Kokotajlo. They discuss four proposed requirements for frontier AI developers, focusing on transparency and whistleblower protections. Daniel shares insights from his experience at OpenAI, while Dean offers his perspective as a frequent guest. Join us for a compelling conversation on concrete AI governance proposals and the importance of collaboration across political lines in shaping the future of AI development.

Check out:

Time Article - 4 Ways to Advance Transparency in Frontier AI Development: https://time.com/collection/time100-voices/7086285/ai-transparency-measures/

Alignment Forum Article - What 2026 looks like: https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-2026-looks-like

Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess

SPONSORS:

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CHAPTERS:

(00:00:00) Teaser

(00:00:53) About the Show

(00:01:16) About the Episode

(00:04:47) Introducing Daniel Kokotajlo

(00:09:29) Daniel's 2026 Prediction

(00:16:11) Sponsors: Shopify | Notion

(00:19:07) AI Propaganda & Censorship

(00:26:58) Internet Balkanization

(00:35:38) Sponsors: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI)

(00:38:24) AGI Timelines & Futures

(00:48:15) Automated R&D

(00:54:48) Superintelligence & AGI

(00:58:25) AI Transparency Proposals

(01:06:11) Four Pillars of Transparency

(01:19:02) Red Teaming Transparency

(01:41:07) Whistleblower Protections

(01:46:32) Internal Information Sharing

(01:54:55) External Oversight & Governance

(01:58:56) Future Outlooks

(02:00:44) Outro

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