People thinking about the future of AI sometimes talk about a single project ‘getting there first’ — achieving AGI, and leveraging this into a decisive strategic advantage over the rest of the world. That would represent a massive concentration of power.

This post is a one-sided exploration of concerns with such concentration of power. They're conveyed in part via an extended analogy with The Lord of the Rings, in the hope that that could make it easier to keep track of the concerns at a gut level — even if people are ultimately persuaded by arguments for the inevitability or desirability of a single project.

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