Introduction

The future is uncertain. Yet, we still attempt to plan for an uncertain future. Since 2001, the Ministry of Defence's (MoD) Global Strategic Trends programme has sought to 'identify the key drivers of change that will shape and reshape our world'. Global Strategic Trends is supported by the Future Operating Environment publication, which 'aims to provide a long-term analysis of the key characteristics of the operating environment in 2035'.

While the data exists in these publications, bringing them to life might seem like a work of fiction. By exploring future worlds through an AI-generated lens, I strongly believe the images produced can help us imagine different future operating environments and facilitate conversations about the implications for defence in an uncertain future.

Future Worlds

The MoD's current Global Strategic Trends publication articulates four future worlds: Multilateralism, Multipolarity, Network of actors, and Fragmentation. These worlds are defined using two variables: the distribution of power and cooperation. The publication states that 'distribution of power varies between centralised power (where states are the main actors) at one end of the spectrum, and diffused power (where state power is eroded and the power of non-state actors increases)'.

The level of cooperation varies from full and open cooperation at one end of the spectrum to intense competition between actors at the other.1 Global Strategic Trends builds on these future worlds with a specific focus on conflict and security. Each of these future worlds will be considered in turn.

Methodology

Bing Image Creator was used to create all four AI-generated images used in this article. The number of variables for each image differed depending on the factors identified as appropriate for that future world. For each image, several versions were produced as factors were added and removed to adjust the images until the image met the author's vision of that specific future world.

This approach clearly introduces a number of biases - both those within the the image creator as well as the author's own in selecting specific images.

Multilateralism

Global Strategic Trends sees a Multilateralism world as one where:

'States are the most influential actors in the global order. Almost all states use multilateral institutions to address global challenges, define legal frameworks and settle disputes. Good global governance is a characteristic of this world.'2

With specific reference to conflict and security, we are told that 'cooperation reduces the requirement for defence spending' and 'defence capabilities are frequently employed on operations other than war, for example, humanitarian and disaster relief operations'.3 The following terms were used to generate the image for the Multilateralism world: powerful states, multinational institutions, global governance, peace, military providing humanitarian aid and disaster relief, and impressionism.

The image shows a world being gently lifted out of the water by a pair of hands. Only one pair of hands perhaps symbolises the unity of those nations represented by the flags. The dark clouds on the horizon and the rising waters could symbolise the impact of climate change and the effort required to address the global challenges brought on by climate change. Although military capabilities from various nations surround the world, they appear separate from it.

The ground forces, in particular, appear to be standing idly by, and this brings into question the role of the military in this future world.

In a multilateralism world, future leaders are likely to unite against global challenges such as climate change, and such 'cooperation reduces the need for defence spending.'4 If this is the case, and the focus shifts to humanitarian aid and disaster relief, will nations see militaries shrink to small but specialised teams capable of supporting humanitarian aid and disaster relief operations?

Multipolarity

Global...