Dr Erica Thompson is a Senior Policy Fellow in Ethics of Modelling and Simulation at the LSE Data Science Institute.

Using the trusty-ish weather forecast as a starting point, Erica highlights the gaps to be minded when applying models in real-life. Kimberly and Erica discuss the role of expert judgement and intuition, the orthodoxy of data-driven cultures, models as engines not cameras, and why exposing uncertainty improves decision-making. Erica illustrates why it is so easy to become overconfident in models. She shows how value judgements are embedded in every step of model development (and hidden in math), why chameleons and accountability don’t mix, and considerations for using model outputs to think or decide effectively. Looking forward, Erica foresees a future in which values rather than data drive decision-making.

A transcript of this episode can be found here.