All Things Markets

So what is in store for markets in 2021? Of course, much will depend on progress toward a vaccine and other efforts to mitigate the health crisis but what are markets staring at in the year ahead. As Indian markets rallied over 70% from March lows riding on foreign money, the question is are we out of the woods yet. To discuss the big trends and key risks of markets in 2021, Mint's Nasrin Sultana is in conversation with Prasun Gajri, CIO, HDFC Life.

The Sep-quarter corporate earnings was better-than-expected. Adjusted net profit growth turned positive in July-September after a year-long slump as consumers shrugged off the pandemic to deliver a surprise rebound in consumption.Besides costs declining dramatically, operating margins expanded and there was also an improvement in cash flows and a near collapse in capex. There were broadly three trends in second quarter of FY21: spillover of demand from Q1 to Q2 as well as restocking the pipeline in anticipation of festive sales; massive share gains by the unorganized sector; and, lastly, significant cost control. As  trends from the festive season suggest continued demand recovery. The question is will earnings revival sustain. To discuss that I am in conversation with Deepak Jasani, Retail Research head, HDFC Securities.

As markets staged a massive recovery post covid lows global brokerage firms have started raising their targets for Indian markets reiterating their bullish stance. Global brokerage firms such as Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Nomura feel that the Indian markets have more legs to the rally as economic indicators show recovery while corporate earnings are hinting that revival is on the track. Indian benchmark indices have rallied over 60% from the lows hit in March, while continuously hitting new record highs this week. Confidence of foreign investors have led to a massive supply of money into Indian equities at a time when domestic institutional investors are on the sidelines. So far in November, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have pumped in $4.15 billion in Indian shares, highest in last three months with a total inflow of nearly $11 billon for the whole year. So, what does the oversupply of foreign money mean for Indian markets? To understand that I am in conversation with Anil Gupta, Sector Head - Financial Sector Ratings, ICRA.

Equity markets had a historical journey in Samvat 2076, as it marked a year of huge volatility, unpredictability, pessimism and divergence. The markets touched an all-time high in January and then crashed to three year low in March as COVID-19 pandemic gripped the whole world, becoming one of the biggest threats to the global economy.

As we enter Samvat 2077, the markets have not only recovered from the Covid lows, but also made record highs. So, what does Samvat2077 hold for stock markets and what are big things to watch out for in the year ahead. To understand that I am in conversation with Gautam Duggad, Head of Research-Institutional Equities, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Demand for gold dropped to 892 tons in July-September period, as consumers and investors continued to battle the effects of the global pandemic. Although jewelry demand improved from the previous three months record low, the combination of continued social restrictions, economic slowdown and a high gold price was a hindrance for many jewelry buyers. Between January and end-September, the US-dollar gold price had increased by 25%.  According to World Gold Council data India’s demand for gold fell 30% to 86.6 tons in July-September. So, will gold demand in India revive as Diwali, Dhanteras and other festivals along with wedding season post-harvest typically see increase in gold purchases. My guest today is Somasundaram PR, MD, World Gold Council India.

In September quarter, IT companies saw demand normalize as their deal pipelines largely returned to pre-covid levels. Led by strong Q2 execution, Infosys raised constant currency revenue growth guidance to 2 -3% for FY21. TCS surprised the street with stellar set of Q2 results. Not only that there are buybacks and new hirings by top IT companies. The top IT firms delivered a strong set of Q2 not hinting that the IT sector is probably at the beginning of the a tech upcycle. Despite near-term uncertainties due to the US elections and a potential second wave of infection, analysts like the IT stocks. So, to understand implication of the Q2 results, Mint's Nasrin Sultana speaks to Rusmik Oza, Head of Fundamental Research, Kotak Securities.

Indian government announced fresh measures to spur demand and revive growth. Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday announced a set of measures worth Rs 9,675 crore to boost consumer demand by front-loading some expenditure. The measures include LTC cash voucher scheme for central government employees and a special festival advance scheme. Amidst this, in September quarter earnings there is an expectation for sequential improvement by consumer companies driven by rural markets while urban recovery appears to be slow. Meanwhile, intermittent closure in top 100 towns, rise in job losses and wage reduction across section has further weakened consumer sentiments, resulting in higher demand for value-for-money products. To understand the consumer demand trends, Mint's Nasrin Sultana is in conversation with Shirish Pardeshi, analysts, Centrum Broking.

Expectations of better September quarter corporate earnings, improvement in domestic economic macro data, and strong global markets have improved investor sentiments. However, now negotiations are halted for additional US stimulus until after the election. Besides the US elections, Bihar elections in India is going to bring some volatility. Are these one -time blips or key risks staring to halt the robust rally in Indian markets. To understand that, I am in conversation with Dhiraj Sachdev, Managing Partner, CIO, Roha Asset Manager

Though markets have jumped about 50% from March lows boosting the confidence of the new or first-time investor, equities have run into choppy water now with Q2 earnings just round the corner, rise in number of COVID-19 cases and the US elections which may impact global markets and fund flows into India. So, will retail flows sustain as markets navigate through turbulence. To understand that Mint's Nasrin Sultana speaks to Jaideep Arora, CEO, Sharekhan.

With the US presidential elections around the corner, Nasrin is in conversation with Gaurav Misra, senior fund manager at Mirae Asset Investment Managers on the potential impact of the US elections on emerging markets particularly India. Tune in for more