In this episode of SMWX, we break down the latest polling from the Social Research Foundation and Ipsos to understand where each major party stands right now — nationally and in key metros like Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni and eThekwini.

The numbers tell a clear story: no party is anywhere near outright control in the country’s major cities. Instead, South Africa is entering a deeper phase of coalition politics — with more parties, more fragmentation, and more uncertainty than ever before.

We unpack:

Where the African National Congress actually sits today — and whether this is now its ceiling

The Democratic Alliance’s position in metros and why it still struggles to break through

The rise of the MK Party and how it is reshaping the political map

What’s happening to the Economic Freedom Fighters vote

Why parties like ActionSA, Inkatha Freedom Party and Patriotic Alliance could decide who governs

We also revisit the 2021 results in key metros to show how coalition politics has evolved — and why instability may actually increase after the next election, not decrease.

The big question is no longer “who will win?” — but rather:

who can actually form a stable government?

SRF polls: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/polls

Inside Politics: https://inside-politics.org