In the year’s first episode of our weekly engagement, Peter Major explains how, unlike oil or copper, which are driven by physical industrial use, the current gold price is being driven almost entirely by investors hoarding it. He refers to long-term gold price graphs to explain why those buying gold today are taking a huge risk of making substantial losses. There’s also a cameo on why the surge in Orion shares (which is in the BizNews Ricardo portfolio) is justified.

From a potential 55 million Rand scandal involving Novus and Mustek to the appointment of Andy Mothibi at the NPA, we dive into the latest developments impacting your money and the ethics of corporate SA.

In his latest interview with Chris Steyn, Toby Chance, the Democratic Alliance's (DA’s) Spokesperson on Trade, Industry and Competition, details yet another harsh blow to former National Lotteries Commission (NLC) staff who had exposed large-scale corruption and illegal grants of up to R2bn. He describes how they were initially promised R20m for reparations, but recently informed that they won’t receive monetary compensation. “It turns out that most of the money would have been spent on consulting fees and other things which doesn't help the whistleblowers one bit…they’ve been financially ruined. Their families have abandoned them. They're living in caravans. They're close to suicide. They've lost their jobs. They can't get jobs. Their lives have been completely ruined…. these people risk everything for exposing the rot at the NLC”. Chance further points out that, between 2019 and 2024, the NLC spent over R70 million on legal fees, “much of which was spent on basically taking the whistleblowers to court and protecting the NLC from the charges that were levelled against them by the whistleblowers”. Meanwhile, “not a single one of (those implicated) has yet been presented with a set of yellow overalls”.

Chance also gives an update on the legal battles over the awarding of the 4th licence.

Join Alec Hogg for BizNews Daybreak, your early morning briefing on investment markets and the world’s biggest stories. We unpack President Trump’s controversial proposal to manage Venezuelan crude to fund reconstruction, and hear analysis from The Economist around China's surprising silence on Maduro's removal - something which will doubtless be carefully analysed in the Union Buildings.

Locally, the Rand strengthened to R16.36/$, and JSE portfolio stocks rallied, with a spectacular surge by BizNews Ricardo portfolio member Orion Minerals. However, new data suggests further economic contradiction: November's massive R37.7bn trade surplus was driven by plunging imports and December saw a fresh 11-month low in PMI . Get the context you need to win the day.

In his latest interview with Chris Steyn, US Intelligence Analyst retired Colonel Chris Wyatt gives the assurance that the US is not likely to invade South Africa. However, he has some words of warning for President Cyril Ramaphosa - who doubled down today on his condemnation of the US invasion of Venezuela. ”(President Nicolás ) Maduro was given multiple opportunities to exit the stage… But he ratched up the pressure. He became arrogant and obstinate. And I can look around the world and see only a couple of other leaders doing the same sort of thing, being arrogant and obstinate in the face of the Bear, in the face of danger, imminent danger that might be coming your way: (Colombian President) Gustavo Petro, whose term is coming to an end, and a certain politician in a certain part of Southern Africa doing the same thing. Not wise moves…” Col Wyatt further warns that the Maduro raid “ought to send a very clear message to people who conspire with Iranian cell phone companies to funnel money to terrorists that murdered American Service members, five lawsuits…anti-terrorism in the United States against MTN, and for countries that allow their helicopters to be shipped to warlords in Libya, and for countries that allow their citizens to become mercenaries to murder Ukrainians. That ought to be a clear message to someone like that…” Col Wyatt also looks into the geopolitical future of Iran, Cuba, and Greenland in the wake of the latest dramatic developments.

From the powder keg in Iran to Donald Trump’s grand return to Davos, Alec Hogg breaks down why South Africa’s recent military and political alliances could leave us increasingly isolated on the global stage. Plus, a fascinating look at a 9,500-year-old archaeological discovery in Malawi that rewrites the history of our continent.

In today’s episode:

The Venezuela Crisis: The latest from Bloomberg, historian Niall Ferguson argues Trump’s intervention was telegraphed months ago, while the FT provides critical context on the situation.

Global Markets: Bitcoin hits $93,800, Gold holds near $4,500, and US oil stocks react strongly.

Local Movers: The Rand strengthens to R16.32. On the JSE, Lewis hits a new high while Arcelor Mittal drops to a trough.

Tech Watch: Updates on Nvidia and the overnight action on Wall Street.

We kick off the new year analyzing the US military’s shock move in Caracas, Ruchir Sharma’s warning on the AI bubble, and what these global shifts mean for your portfolio.

The civic organisation Safe Citizen is today submitting a paper to the South African government around the serious issue of violent crime in South Africa. It is being delivered to President Cyril Ramaphosa, Acting Police Minister Firoz Cachalia, and Ian Cameron, the Chairperson of Parliament’s Portfolio Committee on Police. It is also being sent to every business chamber in the country. In his latest interview with Chris Steyn, Safe Citizen Founder Jonathan Deal says: “We can actually be tough on violent offenders, ruthless about illegal supply, and protect the rights of compliant citizens. And…we need all three…the benefits that we could see would be measurable outcomes in fewer repeat violent offenders on the streets, a faster interdiction of threats, reduced illegal firearm circulation, higher public cooperation with the police…and safer communities without mass restriction…the question is whether government will engage with it and whether community safety policy will finally be driven by outcomes rather than optics.

Seize the day with the freshest news you can use to help you conquer another active business day - from the team at BizNews and our global partners. This episode features insights into the game-changing weekend capture of Nicolas Maduro by US forces with details of the operation and US President Donald Trump sharing his next move with reporters on Air Force One; also the FT's US correspondent Gillian Tett shares her insights into what 2026 has in store for investors in Wall Street's Magnificent Seven stocks; and some good news for BizNews portfolio member Orion Minerals. This is the first episode of BizNews Daybreak for 2026. It is published at dawn, Monday through Friday.