Worldwide Markets - Episode 666 📊

18 February 2025 🇿🇦 South African Economic Indicators

• Unemployment hits 5-year low - but still a tragic 31.4%
• The Achilles heel: Need GDP growth to break below 20%
• 10-year bond yields at decade lows - 7.97% (down from 11% during load shedding)
• Government saving on new bond issuances, though impact is modest
• Potential budget windfall from precious metals next week

ZA 10-year yield | weekly

🤖 AI Valuations: Testing Anthropic's Opus 4.6

• Can AI do DCF valuations? Testing on Dell (NYSE: DELL)
• Opus 4.6 created detailed discounted cash flow model in ~10 minutes
• 148 formulas, zero errors (after self-correction)
• Fair value estimate: $172 vs current ~$115 (significant upside potential)
• ⚠️ Important caveats: Sensitivity assumptions critical (WACC, terminal growth, risk-free rate)
• DCF is just ONE valuation methodology
• Rate limiting kicks in with heavy usage ($20/month tier)
• US stocks work better than local stocks currently

💼 US Economy Update

• Strong fundamentals emerging:
  • $600B+ capex spend by hyperscalers (Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft)
  • Better-than-expected January CPI
  • Unemployment at 4.3% (jobs report revised down 1M though)
  • GDP tracking closer to 3% than 1-1.5%
• Two rate cuts still on the table for 2025
• Tech infrastructure spending providing economic underpin

🚚 The Karaoke Company Logistics Disruption (?)

• Algorhythm stock chaos: Up 222% Friday, another 15% pre-market Tuesday
• From karaoke company to AI logistics software ("SemiCab") in 6 months
• Entire logistics sector sold off on the news
• Reality check needed: Santova and others already doing this with Oscar software
• Market overreaction? Small operators still use fax machines
• Don't panic-short established players like Santova

📅 Upcoming Events

• Power Hour Thursday 5:30pm - Tax efficiency & ETF revolution (Standard Bank Rosebank or webcast)
• ETF database updated with FNB, 10X, 1nnvest, Satrix funds
• Budget next Wednesday - Simon will be in Cape Town

Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail and Shyft

"Look after yourself. If you can look after somebody else as well." 💚

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🎙️ Worldwide Markets – Episode 665

📅 11 February | 🎧 Recorded Tuesday around lunchtime 💼 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft

🌍 This week in markets

• Massive hyperscaler CapEx is back in focus 💰🏗️
• Markets appear calmer – the worst of the recent collapse may be behind us 😮‍💨
• Bitcoin mining costs now around $70,000, putting pressure on miners ⛏️₿
• A deep dive into junior miners – why so many of them struggle ⚒️📉

🏗️ Hyperscalers go full throttle

• 2025 CapEx spend near $380bn, well above expectations
• 2026 estimates push towards $660bn when Oracle is included
• The hyperscalers:
  • Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon ☁️
• The "shovel sellers":
  • Nvidia*, ASML*, TSMC 🧑‍🏭🪓
• Key shift: these businesses are no longer asset-light
• Warning signs emerge as some stocks trade below their 200-day moving averages ⚠️📉

"Nothing good happens below the 200-day."

📊 Stocks & charts

• Microsoft & Meta showing the most technical stress
• Nvidia* and ASML* still look healthy on the charts ✅
• Apple largely staying out of the AI CapEx frenzy 🍏
• 1nvest ETF5IT*: profits taken previously, now watching closely 👀

🤖 Software shock & AI disruption

• Growing fear around software-as-a-service under pressure
• New AI tools like Claude and "vibe coding" spooking SaaS names 💻😬
• Reality check:
  • Niche software may struggle
  • Enterprise platforms (e.g. Salesforce-type businesses) are harder to replace

🪙 Bitcoin, gold & currencies

• Bitcoin dipped below $60,000, now rebounded to mid-$60k
• Mining economics tight at current prices ⚠️
• Gold back above $5,000, refusing to consolidate 🥇🔥
• Ongoing dollar weakness and rand strength 💵⬇️ 🇿🇦⬆️

🌐 The debasement trade

• Signs of slow de-dollarisation and capital moving out of US Treasuries
• China reportedly limiting (not stopping) US bond buying 🇨🇳📉
• Key takeaway:
  • This is a multi-decade trend, not a short-term trade 🐢
• Governments reduce debt via:
  • Inflation
  • Currency weakness

🖥️ A possible opportunity: servers

• Hyperscalers replacing ageing chips & servers faster than expected
• Alphabet spending up to $185bn, with ~⅓ just on replacement 🔁
• Question raised: Is Dell a quiet AI beneficiary? 🖥️📦
  • Forward PE near 10
  • Analysts broadly constructive

⚒️ Junior miners: why it's so hard

• Spotlight on Copper 360, Orion, ASP Isotopes*
• The commodity may be in the ground – but:
  • Extraction is complex
  • Capital is hard to raise
  • Logistics, infrastructure & communities matter 🚧
• Junior mining = high risk by design 🎢
• Even experienced operators fail

📢 Events & deadlines

• Power Hour – 19 February 🕠 17:30 | 💻 Webinar or 🏢 Rosebank
  • Tax-free investing beyond TFSA
  • ETFs, income strategies & Reg 28
• Important reminder ⏰
  • Many providers have early contribution deadlines
  • Don't leave Reg 28 or TFSA top-ups to the last minute

👉 More info: justonelap.com/events

🙌 Wrapping up

• CapEx boom isn't over – but cracks are forming
• AI demand strong, real ROI still unproven
• Junior miners remain speculative and unforgiving
• Stay cautious, stay curious

"Look after yourself — and if you can, look after someone else too." ❤️

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🌍 Worldwide Markets – Episode 664

📅 Recorded: Tuesday midday | 🎙️ Host: Simon Brown

This week on Worldwide Markets, we unpack a wild ride across commodities, central banks, tech titans, and global trade — with gold stealing the spotlight once again.

🟡 Has Gold Bottomed?

Gold went vertical — and then snapped back hard.

• 📈 Ran from around $4,300 → $5,600, before a brutal sell-off

• 📉 Dropped to $4,600, now stabilising near $4,900

• 🕯️ That giant red "kangaroo tail" candle looks ugly — but…

The bigger picture hasn't changed:

• 💵 Debasement trade still intact

• 🌍 Central banks bought ~800 tonnes last year

• 🏦 ETF investors were big buyers again after selling in 2024

➡️ Verdict: Likely consolidation, not collapse. Sideways is the base case.

Gold |Weekly | 03 February 2026

🧱 Commodities Ran Too Hot

It wasn't just gold:

• 🔩 Copper, silver, platinum, palladium all surged

• 🛢️ Brent crude nearly hit $70

• 🪨 Aluminium hit US record prices, creating transatlantic arbitrage

Nothing goes straight up forever — profit-taking was inevitable.

🪙 What About Silver?

Simon stays honest here:

• ❓ Industrial demand and price dislocations matter

• ⚠️ But silver remains complex and opaque

💡 Portfolio stance:

• ✅ Holding gold miners

• ✅ Holding gold ETFs (local & offshore)

• ❌ No silver exposure — and comfortable with that

🏦 Fed Drama: Enter Steve Walsh

Trump's Fed chair nominee spooked markets — but context matters:

• 🔄 Walsh is not a hawk, more a rate flip-flopper

• 🗳️ Previously opposed rate cuts… until Trump won

• 📉 Trump wants lower rates — Walsh says he'll deliver

The challenge?

• 🧠 Convincing the rest of the FOMC

• 🪑 Jerome Powell still has influence for now

➡️ Expect noise, not an instant policy pivot.

🚀 SpaceX + xAI = Trillion-Dollar IPO?

Big Elon energy this week:

• 🛰️ SpaceX acquires xAI

• 🧠 Grok + data + power + space = big ambitions

• 📊 IPO rumoured for mid-2026

• 💰 Valuation likely north of $1 trillion

Simon likes SpaceX… less excited by the social-media side.

🚗 SA Vehicle Sales: Still Strong

January numbers surprised again:

• 📊 Sales near levels last seen in 2019 / early 2022

• 🏆 Toyota leads, but Chinese brands keep climbing

• 🇨🇳 Chery, GWM, JAC & friends reshaping the market

Consumers are still buying — despite high rates.

🤝 US–India Trade "Peace"… Sort Of

A deal was announced, but details are fuzzy:

• 📉 Tariffs reduced (somewhat)

• 🛢️ India supposedly to stop buying Russian oil (👀)

• 💸 India to buy $500bn of US goods (timeline unclear)

History lesson:

• 🌮 Trump tariff threats turn real only ~20% of the time

• ⚖️ Supreme Court still deciding if Trump even has the authority

➡️ Lots of headlines, fewer guarantees.

🎓 Upcoming Event: Power Hour

📅 19 February 📍 Rosebank (in-person) + webcast 💡 Topic: Tax-Free Investing & ETFs

👉 Book at justonelap.com/events

👋 Closing Thoughts

Markets are noisy, emotional, and fast — but the big-picture trends still matter more than the candles.

Until next week: 🤍 Look after yourself 🤍 And if you can, look after someone else too

Cheers! 🍻

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🎙️ Worldwide Markets – Episode 663

📅 28 January | Recorded late Tuesday afternoon Host: Simon Brown

Powered by: Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft – the global money app for travel, shopping, payments & investing 🌍💳

This week a quick look at gold and the Rand, both did what was expected over the year in the first month.

Then picks for the Cristal Challenge 2026 and the Moneyweb Investor Challenge.

Three bankers that go into each challenge. Then four floaters, two per each challenge to mix it up a bit.

Best of luck to all who enter :)

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

For the thirteenth year in a row Keith McLachlan, Marc Ashton and Simon Brown kick off the new year with a predictions show.

First they check in and mark what they said last year. Then they each offer three predictions for the year ahead and a view on the Top40 and Rand/

Find last years show here.

🌍 Worldwide Markets — Episode 660

🎙️ The Best and Worst of the JSE in 2025

📅 10 December 2025 🎧 Final episode of the year — back 14 January 2026 💼 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft

🏁 Opening Thoughts

• Last podcast of 2025! 🎉

• A huge thank-you to listeners, watchers and everyone who engaged across the year 🙏

• A wild year for markets, but a great year for returns 📈

• Wishing everyone a restful and safe festive break ✈️🌞

🎥 Power Hour Recap — Position Your Portfolio for 2026

📌 Highlights included:

• 🔙 Looking back at 2025's predictions (keeping it honest!)

• 🤖 The state of AI: spotting bubbles, when to worry, triggers to watch

• 💰 Gold & commodities outlook

• 🛍️ Local retail — opportunities & risks

• 🚀 IPO environment

• 🧭 Positioning for 2026

Watch here.

🥇 Best Performers of the JSE in 2025 🪙 1. Precious Metals: The Dominant Theme of 2025

Gold & PGM miners absolutely owned the market this year. If you weren't in them… your portfolio lagged the benchmark.

Top returns (total return to 8 Dec):

• 🥇 Sibanye-Stillwater* — +258% 🤯

• 🥈 AngloGold Ashanti* — ~+240%

• 🥉 Northam — +214%

• 🏅 Gold Fields — +195%

• Implats — +153%

• Thungela / Valterra / others — 130–140% range

• Harmony — +119%

📌 Why the boom?

• Gold price exploded early in the year 🌕

• Safe-haven flows amid tariff drama, budgets, DeepSeek shock

• Strong production + not-yet-expensive valuations

💬 Simon: Still bullish on gold miners — not expecting another double, but valuations remain attractive if gold holds current levels.

🎓 2. Education Sector Winners

• 🎓 Stadio — +89%

• 🧑‍🏫 Killed it with distance learning demand and tertiary approvals

• 📉 Curo delisted; ADvTech* solid with +20%

🟣 3. Purple Group* & EasyEquities

• +87% 🚀

• Bull markets = busy brokers

• Results were slightly soft in H2 (bonuses cycle), but long-term story intact

📡 4. Telcos Roar Back (From a Very Low Base)

• 📱 MTN — +76%

• 🔵 Blue Label — +73% (Cell C momentum)

• 🔌 IOCA — +65%

• ☎️ Telkom — +60%

• 🟥 Vodacom — +38%

📌 Simon sold MTN a decade ago during the Nigerian fine panic — and never re-entered. Lesson: When it's time to panic, panic fast.

💰 5. Standout Financials & Miscellaneous

• 🟪 Sygnia — +72%

• 💻 Datatec — +70% (surprise performer)

• 🍗 Astral — +49% (thanks, cheaper maize!)

• 🐓 Rainbow Chicken — +43%

• 🏢 Growthpoint — +48% (big dividends)

• 🧱 Property sector broadly strong again: Redefine, Octodec, etc.

• 🏦 PSG Financial Services — +40%

• 💼 Capitec — +29%

• 🏦 Standard Bank — +31% — notably ahead of Capitec

• 🟧 Naspers — +25% (Simon sees opportunity post-share split)

• 🛢️ Sasol — +25% (still not a favourite)

🛒 6. Retail: The Year's Big Disappointment

• 🛋️ Lewis — +22% (but deep down the list)

• 🥩 Spur — +15%

• 🍗 Famous Brands — –16%

• 🛒 Shoprite* — –4.6% (value emerging)

• 🛍️ Pick n Pay — –17% (slow turnaround)

• 👗 Mr Price* — –26% (Simon still sees value)

• 👟 Pepkor — weak, but potential for recovery

🔻 Worst Performers of the JSE in 2025 💥 Biggest Losers

• 🚨 Nutun / Transaction Capital legacy — –52%

• 👗 Foschini* (TFG) — –50%

• 📄 Sappi — –46% (ongoing structural challenges)

• 🧱 Afrimat — –43% (Lafarge integration still tough; Simon sees opportunity)

• 💉 Aspen — –43% (lost sterile facility contract; utilization still weak)

• 🔧 Cashbuild — –37% (SA consumers tapped out)

• 📺 eMedia — heavy selling post-unbundling

🛒 Retailers Under Pressure

• 🥀 Spar — –28% (competition from Boxer + Shoprite* + Pick n Pay)

• 👖 Mr Price* — –26%

• 🍔 Famous Brands — –16%

• 🍩 Life Healthcare, Renergen*, ArcelorMittal SA — all struggling

📉 Macro, Risks & 2026 Outlook 🌱 Green Shoots in South Africa

• Early signs of improvement appearing

• Fragile but real: improving volumes, some recovery in SA Inc, stabilising consumer pockets

• REITs & banks starting from low valuations

⚠️ Risks

• Moody's kept SA unchanged; risks tilt to the downside

• A global AI bubble burst would hit emerging markets hard

• External shocks more dangerous than local issues

📈 Global Watch: The Mag 7 & Market Signals

• Bubble warning model: Two giants below the 200-day MA

• Meta dipped back below — but still only one of the seven triggering

• Nvidia chart still healthy

• Gold still bullish

• Oil looks very weak

🤝 Closing the Year

Simon wraps 2025 with gratitude and optimism:

• ✨ "It's been a year — a wild one — but at least we got returns."

• ❄️ Be safe this festive season

• 🙌 Special thanks to those working through December (retail, hospitality, logistics)

• 🎙️ Back 14 January 2026 with the annual predictions show featuring Keith McLachlan & Marc Ashton — and, as always, they'll mark themselves before forecasting ahead.

🔗 Powered By

🏦 Standard Bank Global Markets 🌍 Shyft – the global money app 💸 Cheapest Forex rates, anywhere, anytime

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

Worldwide Markets – Episode 659 Show Notes

"It's Been a Year… But Markets Loved It"

📆 3 December 2025 🎙️ Host: Simon Brown 🏦 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft — the global money app.

🌍 Opening: A Wild Year That Somehow Ended Beautifully

• Despite chaos from January to April — tariffs, collapsing markets, surging yields, rand at 19.90 — markets still delivered a stellar year.

• If you had gone on holiday 1 Jan and checked your portfolio today, you'd think it was a boring year… but Yowza! It was anything but.

• Reminder: Wall Street ≠ Main Street — markets often move ahead of economic reality.

🤖 AI Chaos in January: DeepSeek Shakes the Market

• Chinese model DeepSeek stunned the AI world, training for ~$6m vs OpenAI's multi-billion dollar spend.

• Raised questions: cheaper API access, open-source surge, China's rapid AI emergence.

• Set the tone for a year of AI leapfrogging between global players.

🇺🇸 The Trump Factor: Tariffs Everywhere

• Trump sworn in (20 Jan) → tariffs on Mexico & Canada within days.

• Tore up the post-WW2 geopolitical playbook → raised questions of US reliability going forward.

• Triggered global uncertainty but markets... shrugged.

🇿🇦 Local Madness: The Three Budget Attempts

• SA tried three times to get a budget passed.

• Rand collapses into "Liberation Tariff Day", hits 19.90 → quickly followed by "90 deals in 90 days" promises.

• Only three months in and the year was already unhinged.

📉 April Market Meltdown… Followed by a Stunning Recovery

• US 10-yr at 4.5%, US equities down 15%, local markets collapsing, bonds selling off.

• By December → Nikkei near highs, Europe at highs, JSE powered by gold, US pushed by the Mag 7.

• Markets looked glorious by year-end, despite everything.

🎙️ Upcoming: Best-Performing JSE Stocks of 2025

• Spoiler: Gold miners will dominate.

• Full breakdown coming next week in the final show of 2025.

🖼️ NanoBanana & Gemini: AI Image Tools Blow Simon's Mind

• Simon has used DALL·E heavily for two years — but:

  • ❌ slow

  • ❌ bad at text

  • ❌ struggles with edits

• NanoBanana + Gemini 3:

  • ⚡ insanely fast

  • 🔠 perfect text edits

  • 🎨 clean output

• Alphabet has:

  • 💰 massive free cash flow

  • 🌐 billions of users

  • 📢 advertising infrastructure

• → Giving them a potential edge in AI monetisation (for now).

📈 AI Stock Bubble: Is It Popping?

• Nvidia chart not bearish — holding support around 165–166 and bouncing.

• Mag 7 vs 200-day moving average:

  • ⬇️ Only Meta is below.

  • Microsoft, Amazon still comfortably above.

• Conclusion:

  • 🤯 We are in a bubble… but it's not bursting yet.

  • More insights coming in the Power Hour.

[caption id="attachment_55081" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Nvidia weekly chart | 01 December 2025[/caption]

🪙 Bitcoin: The Chart Looks Ugly

• Trump is the most pro-crypto president ever, but BTC isn't reacting positively.

• Peaked at $126k in October → now around $87k.

• Breaking support levels:

  • ⚠️ If current zone doesn't hold → sub-$70k likely.

• Gold vs Bitcoin comparison:

  • 🥇 Gold behaves like a hedge.

  • ₿ Bitcoin remains a speculative asset, not a store of value or inflation hedge.

[caption id="attachment_55082" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Bitcoin weekly chart | 02 December 2025[/caption]

🇿🇦 South African GDP: Some Bright Spots

Q3 2025 GDP:

• 📈 +0.5% QoQ

• 📈 +2.1% YoY

• 🚧 Gross fixed capital formation +1.6% → first strong rise since Q2 2023.

  • Means: building → roads, dams, solar, infrastructure — very positive.

🏦 Banks Benefit Most

Reasons:

• 👍 GDP uptick

• ⬆️ Credit upgrades

• ⬇️ Lower expected inflation

• ⬇️ Lower rates coming

• 🟩 Off the grey list

Valuations:

• Price-to-book: 1.0–1.5×

• Yields: high single digits

• Winners depend on style:

  • 💸 Deep value → ABSA, Nedbank

  • ⚖️ Balanced → Standard Bank, FNB

  • 🦄 Premium → Capitec (always expensive)

🏢 Shaftesbury (UK REIT): One to Watch

• Formerly Capital & Counties.

• Own Covent Garden & key West End locations.

• Never recovered from Brexit: from £4 → now £1.42.

• Fundamentals:

  • 💰 Single-digit PE (~8)

  • 📉 Yield 2.7%

  • 📊 Analyst range: £1.48–£2.10

• Not a buy yet — but on the watchlist due to prime assets.

🏘️ SA Property: The Easy Money Is Gone

• SA REITs had:

  • 🚀 Huge 2024

  • 📈 Strong 2025

• Many now trade around NAV:

  • Storage, Spear, Vukile → at/near NAV

  • Octodec → still at discount

• Simon prefers 15% discount to NAV before buying.

• Markets have closed the gap — valuations now full.

• If REITs move to 10–15% premiums, Simon will run.

🔮 Next Week: Final Show of 2025

• Full list of best and worst JSE performers of the year.

• Small caps that surprised everyone.

• Then → back week of 12 Jan with Marc Ashton & Keith McLachlan for the annual predictions episode.

👋 Wrap-Up

A shorter show this week, but packed with market insight, AI breakthroughs, Bitcoin trouble, UK property opportunities, and SA's slow-but-positive GDP recovery.

As always: 💙 Look after yourself. 🤝 And if you can, look after someone else too.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

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🌍 Worldwide Markets – Episode 658

📅 26 November 2025 🎙️ Hosted by Simon Brown 💼 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft

🔥 This Week's Big Themes

• 📊 JSE 10-year returns — miners dominate!

• 💽 Nvidia results: great numbers, strange market reaction

• 🥇 Harmony goes big on copper

• 🛠️ SA Inc sleeper stock ready to run with GDP recovery

• 📦 Process/Tencent update: super-app dreams + buybacks

• 🧠 Standard Bank launches new AI structured product

• 🎯 Power Hour: Position your portfolio for 2026 (8 December)

🏭 Invicta Results — A Deep Value SA Inc Play

• 🏗️ Capital equipment group with exposure to SA, EU, US & Asia.

• 🌍 Tariffs hit their China → US shipments.

• 💰 Valuation extremely cheap:

  • PE

  • Dividend yield > 3%

  • Price-to-book: 0.7

• 🚧 SA's weak GDP is the drag — but a recovery to 1.8% → 2% → 3% could turn this into a major SA Inc winner.

• ⚙️ Manufacturers sweating assets = more parts sold = small cyclical buffer.

🥢 Prosus / Naspers / Tencent — Cash Flow Turns Positive

• 💵 First positive free cash flow ever → +$59m vs -$104m.

• 💰 Billions of $ in cash reserves.

• 🍔 Food delivery (iFood, etc.) gaining scale + working toward a unified "super-app" model.

• 🧧 Still overwhelmingly driven by Tencent, but:

  • 🎮 Tencent Games

  • 🎵 Tencent Music

  • 📺 Online ads

  • 📱 WeChat ecosystem

  • 🎥 Epic Games stake

  • 🎞️ TikTok-style platforms

• 🔄 Ongoing share buybacks funded by selling Tencent into Hong Kong.

💻 Nvidia — Big Beat, Yet the Stock Falls?

• 📈 Beat on revenue, profit, and guidance — classic Nvidia.

• 🤔 But inventory jumped 32%, raising questions about demand visibility.

• 🏭 Meta reportedly exploring Google chips, with Amazon & Google also pushing their own silicon.

• ⚠️ Non-Nvidia chips = slower + higher power usage → still "B-grade".

• 📉 Technically:

  • Support at ~$180

  • Next support ~$166

  • Further support ~$150s

• 🎈 Bubble chatter now turning into "yes, it is a bubble" — but bubbles go UP before they pop.

• 📉 Mag-7 200-day MA signals:

  • Only Meta sits below (-10%).

  • Microsoft almost there (+1.5%).

  • Amazon also soft (+5%).

🥇 Harmony — From Gold to Copper Giant?

• 🪙 Buying + building the Eva copper project in Australia.

• 🧱 Production cost: $2.50/lb copper (vs spot ~$4.50–$5.25).

• ⛏️ Harmony is shifting from pure gold → gold + copper, diversifying earnings.

• 🎙️ Jimmy Moyaha's view:

  • ✔️ Good blend of cyclical exposures

  • ✔️ Some risk hedging between metals

• ⛏️ Deep SA gold mines = harder + costlier → copper is a logical hedge.

• 🔌 Copper = "metal of the future" (again) due to electrification & green tech.

🧠 Standard Bank AI Structured Product (Now Open!)

• 🧺 Basket:

  • 🇺🇸 US Tech (NASDAQ)

  • 🇨🇳 China Tech (KWEB)

• 💸 Auto-call feature:

  • Year 1: If both indices are positive → 16% payout

  • If not, each subsequent year with positivity → 16% per year

  • Max 5-year horizon = up to 80%

• 🛡️ Capital protection:

  • 100% capital back if indices not more than 30% down at maturity

• 💵 Minimum: R25,000 (+ R1,000 increments)

• 🗓️ Closing: 3 December 2025

• 📍 Available via OST or your stockbroker.

📈 10-Year JSE Winners — The Miners Dominate 🥇 Top Performers (per-year returns, excluding dividends)

• 🥇 Harmony Gold — 43.5% p.a. (3600% total!)

• 🥈 Gold Fields — 37%

• 🥉 Kumba Iron Ore — 33% (42% incl. dividends)

• ⚒️ Exxaro — 28% + 12% dividends

• ⚙️ Northam Platinum — 28.5%

• 🇬🇧 Argent — 27% (first non-miner)

• 💼 African Rainbow Capital / Valterra — 25%

• 🏦 Capitec — 22.5% + dividends → 24% total

• 🛠️ Bell Equipment, Merafe, Sibanye — strong ~19%+

• 🌐 Datatec — 19% + 17% dividends → 37%

📉 Big Losers (per-year declines)

• 🪓 Eskom (ELI / ACO) — -26%

• 📦 Nampak — -18%

• 🛏️ City Lodge — -14.5%

• 🧪 ArcelorMittal — -14%

• 💊 Aspen — -10%

• 🛢️ Sasol — -10%

• 🏘️ Balwin — -7%

• 🍔 Famous Brands — -7%

• 🧱 PPC — -5%

• 🛒 Pick n Pay — -5%

• 🏥 Netcare — -4.8%

• 🧺 Woolworths — 2.4% p.a. (only 1.4% incl. dividends)

📊 Top 40 — 10-Year Benchmark Performance

• 📈 118% total return over 10 years

• 📉 CAGR: 8.2% (≈10.5% incl. dividends)

• 📌 Best period: 11.6% (2019)

• 📌 Worst: ~3% during crisis

• 🎯 Real return (CPI ~5%): ≈7% — very respectable.

📣 Call to Action

💬 Tell us in the comments:

• Which 10-year winners do you own?

• Which stats shocked you most?

• What's your best-performing JSE stock of the last decade?

Worldwide Markets — Episode 657 (19 November 2025) 🗓️📈

🔥 This Week on Worldwide Markets

Good things are happening in South Africa 🇿🇦, bubble-watching on global markets 🎈, fresh ETF listings from Ninety One 📊, strong local results (Astral 🐔, WeBuyCars 🚗, Ninety One 💼), and the Year-End Power Hour opens for bookings 🎤✨.

🎈 Bubble Talk: When Does It Pop?

Guest Insight: Citigroup's Dirk Willer (via Odd Lots podcast) Definition: A bubble = asset prices 2 standard deviations above the 1-year average.

His exit rule:

➡️ Identify the drivers — the Magnificent 7 (Alphabet, Tesla, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta). ➡️ The bubble pops when 2 of the 7 fall below their 200-day EMA 📉.

Current Status:

• Meta: 12% below the 200-day ❗

• Microsoft: +5.4% above

• Amazon: +6.5% above

• Others still safely above.

👉 So we're halfway to bubble-popping territory. 👉 But: bubbles make money on the way up — timing the exit is the key.

Fun fact: Alphabet has negative net debt (more cash than debt) 💰.

📊 Ninety One Lists Two Actively Managed Income ETFs

Two new AMETFs hit the JSE:

🇿🇦 91DINC (Local Income ETF)

• Quarterly dividends

• TER: ~0.25% (incl VAT)

• Tax-free account eligible

• ~20-year unit trust track record

🌍 91GINC (Global Income ETF)

• Accumulating (rolls up dividends)

• ~9% USD yield target

• Pays in ZAR on the JSE

• ~4.5% current USD yield

Full explainer webcast here 🎥.

🇿🇦 Good Things Happening in South Africa

Yes, things are still tough — but several green shoots 🌱:

1️⃣ Greylist Exit

SA officially removed — major reputational win ✔️.

2️⃣ Medium-term Budget Positives

• Debt trajectory stabilising (may not hit 80%).

• Primary budget surplus — only ~6 countries globally manage this.

• Bond yields down ≈2%, reducing future borrowing costs.

• Precious metals boom boosting revenue 🪙⬆️.

3️⃣ New Inflation Target

• Formalised 3% target, with a 2–4% band 🎯.

• Helps competitiveness for exporters like citrus 🍊.

4️⃣ MPC Outlook

• Inflation at 3.4% — within band

• Simon expects a rate cut on Thursday ✂️💸.

5️⃣ Credit Rating Upgrade

S&P: Upgraded SA from 3-notches Junk → 2-notches Junk.

• First upgrade in 16 years ⭐

• Positive outlook — another upgrade possible.

Moody's review coming in December.

6️⃣ Load Shedding Gone (for now)

• Effectively no load shedding for months ⚡😊.

• Operation Vulindlela turning to Transnet next 🚢.

7️⃣ GNU Functioning Smoothly

• Budget passed without drama

• Coalition politics fading into the background — exactly where they should be.

⚠️ But:

• Chronic unemployment (31%+) 😔

• Inequality, poverty, crime remain severe issues → Growth is the only way to tackle these sustainably.

🎤 Year-End Power Hour — Book Now!

Theme: Position Your Portfolio for 2026

• Limited in-person seats

• Webcast available

• Simon reviews last year's predictions (and mocks himself 🤣)

• Then looks at 2026: gold, rand, upgrades, tariffs, etc.

👉 Book here

📈 Company Results Round-Up 🐔 Astral Foods

A horror first half… turned around:

What improved:

• Avian flu mostly gone; vaccination up to 30%

• Power issues stabilised

• Independent water supply

• Yellow maize prices lower 🌽⬇️

• Pricing back to Dec 2023 levels

Outlook: CEO Gary Arnold expects a strong FY to Sept 2025. More upside if maize stays low.

🚗 WeBuyCars

Trading update spooked the market — PE dropped from mid-20s → high teens.

Pressures:

• Cheap new Chinese cars (R300k range) compete aggressively 🇨🇳

• Slower earnings growth (~mid-teens)

Their response:

• Lower buying prices in segments competing with Chinese brands

• Future tailwind: cheap Chinese cars will enter second-hand market soon

• Record 16,000 monthly sales

• Scale still growing

Valuation: Simon sees value emerging in the low-40s 👀.

💼 Ninety One (Asset Manager)

• Strong numbers; bull markets = good for AUM

• Market sold it off (priced for perfection?)

• PE ~11, DY ~6% — cheap metrics

• Analysts: 2 buys, 2 holds, 1 strong sell

• Price target avg ≈ R47.34 (around current price)

🏛️ Coronation

• Last year's SARS case win inflated the base → No repeat special dividends → Lower YoY numbers expected.

💱 Rand & Commodities 🇿🇦 Rand

• Broke below 17/USD last week (first time since early 2023)

• Now back around 17.20

• Trend still strengthening — more in the Year-End Power Hour.

🪙 Gold

• Holding firm, not running

• Key levels:

  • Support: ~R39,20

  • Risk: Lower highs + lower lows if it breaks

• Currently steady around R4,050.

📉 Markets & Crypto

• S&P drawdown: ~3.5–4%

• Nasdaq: ~5–5.5% → Much panic for not much movement 🤷‍♂️.

₿ Bitcoin

• Looking rough under R90,000

⚙️ Nvidia Earnings — Wednesday

A major market catalyst. Bad numbers could turn sentiment quickly.

🔭 Coming Up Next Week

Simon looks at JSE top performers over the last 10 years 📈 (Spoiler: several gold miners… but almost all gains from the last year.)

Then it's December wrap-ups → and back in January.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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