Simon Brown chats with Glynn Allen from Shyft Global on the history of the app and the recent introduction of JSE shares and a look ahead to new features.

• After a rough start, Monday’s trading saw a small recovery. But with Trump’s "Liberation Day" tariff announcements looming, markets could be in for more volatility.

• The ANC lacks votes to pass the postponed budget, with opposition parties like MK and EFF holding out. Political and economic uncertainty remains high.

• Gold (+19.5%), Copper (+26.5%), and Rhodium (+24.5%) lead the way, while oil and aluminium lag. The CRB Index is up 5.4% year-to-date.

• Q1 GDP estimate revised to -0.5% from -2.8%. Adjustments for gold trade data make the outlook slightly less dire.

• Stock down 20% from its highs, with a historically low P/E ratio of 34. Analysts see upside potential.

Amazon | Weekly Chat | 31 March 2025

• Trading near $165, with a potential drop to $150 making its 3% yield even more attractive.

Johnson & Johnson | Weekly Chat | 31 March 2025

• Nvidia, Palantir, Novo Nordisk, and more available via FNB, offering exposure to top global stocks with local accessibility.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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00:00 Market Overview and Economic Indicators 03:09 US Tariff Implications and Market Reactions 05:45 Commodities Performance and Economic Impact 09:03 Stock Analysis: Amazon's Market Position 12:00 Stock Analysis: Johnson & Johnson's Stability 14:38 Investment Strategies and Innovations

• Stadio: Strong performance with double-digit growth and 50,000+ learners. Benefiting from a shortage of university spaces and the struggles at UNISA. Potential for further growth through distance learning and university status.
• ADvTech*: Long-term holding with solid but not as aggressive growth. Strong presence in tertiary education and schools. Expansion into East Africa showing promise.
• Curro: Disappointing results with flat learner numbers and write-downs on buildings. Struggles may be due to internal issues or broader economic pressures on lower-income consumers.

• Copper: Near all-time highs due to demand from EVs, data centers, and energy transition. Companies like BHP*, Anglo, and Rio ramping up production. Simon is playing the copper trade through BHP Group.

Copper | Weekly | 25 March 2025

• Rhodium: Seeing a price recovery after a prolonged downturn. Benefiting PGM miners, though still far from peak levels.
• Platinum & Palladium: Relatively stable within established price ranges.

• BYD claims a five-minute charge for 400 km range, setting a new benchmark for EVs.
• Outpacing Tesla and other competitors in rapid-charging efficiency.
• Dominating the affordable EV space with sub-$10,000 models.
• Tesla’s Market Share Decline in Europe
• Tesla’s share of the European BEV market dropped from 21% to 9.6%.
• Competitive pricing from BYD and lack of Tesla model updates.
• CEO Elon Musk’s political involvement potentially affecting brand perception.

• Reported net asset value (NAV) of R276.89, but share price only R155.
• The discount to NAV is reaching extreme levels.
• Historically, Remgro traded at a much smaller discount, raising questions about potential revaluation.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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00:00 Market Overview and Education Stocks 06:51 Commodities: Copper and Rhodium Insights 13:34 Electric Vehicle Market Dynamics 18:02 Remgro's Financial Performance and Valuation Insights

• Top 40 Index: Hit an all-time high of 82,378, currently at 81,800. SA markets remain strong despite a US market selloff.

• Top40 | Weekly | 18 March 2025
• Gold: Broke $3,000 for the first time last week, currently around $3,030. Continues to rise amid geopolitical uncertainties.

• Gold | Weekly | 19 March 2025
• Rand: Trading at 18.07, briefly touching 18.0088 earlier. Dollar weakness driving strength, with a target level of 17.80.

• Gold as a Portfolio Hedge:
  • Maintains a 6-7% weighting in portfolio.
  • Recent purchase at $2,865 via GLD ETF in New York.
  • Potential buy zones: $2,800 and $2,850.
• Dollar Index Trends:
  • Initially targeted 104, broke through to 101.
  • Could drive the Rand towards 17.80.

• European tariffs and Ukraine war concerns.
• Trump-Putin meeting adds to geopolitical tensions.
• Elevated US market valuations suggest exploring Europe ETFs.

• AI Participation Note by Standard Bank:
• Tracks the S&P Kensho AI Index.
• Two options:
  • 100% Capital Protection - Minimum investment of R25,000, capital secured, potential upside.
  • Capital at Risk with 140% Participation Rate - Higher returns if index rises, but losses if it drops more than 40%.
• Open for investment until March 28, 2025.

• Finally delivered helium after years of delays.
• Stock surged from R3 to R9.30, but challenges remain.
• Phase 2 expansion and NASDAQ listing pending.
• Retail investors remain cautious due to past delays.

• Atlanta Fed GDP Now Forecast:
• Predicts Q1 GDP contraction of -2.1%.
• Economic slowdown concerns intensifying.

• US Fed (FOMC): Unlikely to cut rates.
• SA Reserve Bank (MPC): Potential space for a rate cut.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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00:00 Market Overview and Key Movements 05:47 Gold and Rand Dynamics 12:08 Investment Opportunities in AI 17:43 Renigen's Helium Production and Challenges 20:06 Budget Insights and Economic Outlook

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow predicts a -2.4% GDP contraction for Q1 2025.
• Market uncertainty due to tariffs and economic policy concerns.
• Corporate travel and consumer bookings showing signs of weakness as Delta Airlines downgrades their expectations from mid January.

• Nasdaq and S&P had their worst single-day drops since 2022.
• Major stocks like Nvidia, ASML, and CrowdStrike seeing significant declines.
• Bitcoin at $81,000 amid broader market volatility.

• Europe’s economic stimulus: Germany announces a €500B package.
• ETFs to consider: EURO STOXX 50 (SYGEU) vs. MSCI Europe Industrial Sector.
• Potential for growth in industrial and defense sectors.

Euro Stoxx 50 | Weekly | 12 March 2025

• Founded in 2011 to provide online financial education.
• Reflection on the platform’s growth and community support.

• Possible VAT increase; lack of innovative fiscal strategies.
• Previous reliance on gold reserves for financial stability.
• Discussion on potential economic impacts.

• Revenue up 21%, HEPS up 27%, dividend up 17%.
• Expanding into fintech with PayJustNow and FinChoice.
• Liquidity concerns despite strong financial performance.

• Initial claims suggested debt repayment, but data suggests spending.
• Increased vehicle sales, hospitality sector growth (e.g., Spur, Sun International).
• Implications for long-term financial planning.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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00:00 Economic Outlook: Recession Predictions and Market Reactions 09:07 Investing in Europe: Opportunities and ETFs 12:07 Celebrating 14 Years of Just One Lap 13:20 Budget Analysis: VAT Increase and Economic Innovation 15:09 Home Choice International: Business Performance and Liquidity Challenges 18:19 Consumer Spending Trends: Where Did the Money Go?

• Anglo-American’s decision to unbundle its stake in Anglo-Platinum raises concerns.
• Declaring a special dividend of R59 per share wipes out the company’s entire R17.6 billion cash reserves.
• Implications for investors: selling pressure expected as shares land in new brokerage accounts.

• The appearance of Jack Ma and Xi Jinping together could mark a softening stance toward tech companies.
• Alibaba partners with Apple, integrating its AI into Apple’s ecosystem.
• Is China reopening the door for its tech giants?

• Global indices continue to hit all-time highs, with AI and tech stocks leading the charge.
• Not just tech: European and Asian markets show strength.
• Are valuations stretched, or is there more room to run?

Simon Brown

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• Sasol Reversal Pattern? – Examining Sasol’s technical setup and the significance of a ‘kangaroo tail’ pattern.
• Rand Stability Amid Trump’s Threats – Despite geopolitical concerns, the rand remains steady.
• Top 40 at All-Time Highs – Market momentum and investor confidence.

• Revenue shortfalls and potential tax bracket adjustments
• Universal Basic Income and National Health Insurance funding discussion
• Expectations for the fiscal policy outlook

• Telkom: Revenue up 0.9%, in a turnaround phase, but Simon remains skeptical about telcos.
• Santam: Strong earnings growth (40-60% increase in HEPS), but insurance sector risks remain.
• Shoprite*: Consumer stock pullback; long-term bullish outlook despite short-term pressure.

• Alibaba up 40% on Apple collaboration
• Satrix China ETF – is it time to reconsider investing in China?
• General sentiment split between ‘China is uninvestable’ vs. ‘China has potential’

• SA Bonds Showing Volatility: A significant move in bond yields post-Trump comments, raising concerns about borrowing costs.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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• Initial tariffs of 10% (China) and 25% (Canada, Mexico) announced but later revised.
• U.S.-Canada relations strained, with Warren Buffett warning of reputational damage.
• Global negotiation shifts—China, Russia, and Europe eye opportunities.
• Continued U.S.-China trade tensions, including semiconductor restrictions and rare earth tariffs.
• Market volatility expected; long-term investment strategies recommended.

• Volatility is high—avoid panic selling.
• Keep cash reserves for opportunities (buy the dip cautiously).
• Long-term focus: presidential terms are temporary, investments span decades.

• Bank of England expected to cut rates.
• U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell pauses rate hikes due to inflation concerns.
• South Africa’s MPC cuts rates, prime now at 11%.
• Analysts predict one to two more rate cuts in 2024.

• Gold price hovering near $2,900, with potential to break $3,000.
• Supply constraints—minimal new gold mining projects.
• Strong central bank purchases—1,000+ tons bought in 2023.
• Retail ETF inflows return after three years of outflows.
• Gold miners like Harmony, AngloGold*, and Pan African positioned well.

Gold weekly | 06 February 2025

Retail Sector & Consumer Spending:

• Mixed trading updates: Pick n Pay and Boxer show early turnaround signs.
• Modest growth in TFG, Mr. Price*, and Clicks; Shoprite* remains strong.
• Cautious consumer spending patterns persist.

• Initial withdrawals lower than expected—around R50 billion.
• Future ongoing withdrawals expected as a structural component in SA’s economy.

• January sales at 46,400—stronger than expected.
• Used car market expanding, Chinese brands gaining traction.
• Auto sector investment options: CMH*, Motus, and Zeda.

Such African monthly vehicle sales

• Six-month trading update—earnings per share around R14.
• Continual asset write-downs and operational challenges.
• PE ratio suggests market pricing for bankruptcy, but survival likely.
• No clear turnaround signals yet—investors should wait for stronger confirmation.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

00:00 Market Overview and Podcast Introduction 01:10 Trump Tariffs and Global Trade Dynamics 06:25 Interest Rates and Economic Implications 10:02 Gold Market Trends and Predictions 12:51 Retail Sector Performance and Consumer Behavior 14:17 Vehicle Sales Insights and Market Trends 16:40 Sasol's Financial Challenges and Future Outlook