🌍 Worldwide Markets – Episode 647 (9 Sept 2024)

This week on *Worldwide Markets*, Simon Brown dives into global markets, tech giants, crypto shifts, commodities, and currencies. Recorded a day early before heading to Leaderex, here’s what’s moving markets right now. Powered by Standard Bank and Shyft. 💳🌐

📊 US Jobs & Rate Cuts

• US jobs report was a mixed bag → +22k jobs, but mostly in healthcare.
• June revised downward to negative, July slightly up.
• Unemployment steady at 4.3%.
• Market expectation: Fed to cut rates next week after Jackson Hole signals.
• SA MPC unlikely to cut as inflation edges higher at 3.5%.

🔍 Alphabet (Google) Court Cases

Alphabet gets a gentle slap on the wrist in antitrust cases. Remedies minimal → no spin-offs of Chrome/Android, search payments (Apple $20bn/year, Firefox $750m) remain. Stock ran to **all-time highs 🚀 (PE still below historical mean). Another case pending on ad dominance – possible spinoffs (YouTube, DoubleClick?) could unlock hidden value.

₿ AltVest → African Bitcoin Corporation

• AltVest rebrands to African Bitcoin Corporation (ABC).
• Pivot: becoming a Bitcoin treasury company like MicroStrategy.
• Raising R11m at R11/share (vs. current ±R5). Proceeds to fund name change + Bitcoin buys.
• Ambition: raise R210m (maybe even $210m?) in tranches.
• Risky bet → doubling down on volatile BTC exposure. ⚡

🛢️ Oil & Sasol

• OPEC+ to increase output ~200k barrels/day.
• Saudi Arabia aims for market share → oil likely heading to $60.
• Sasol still strong 💪 → potential run to R135–R140 before Simon trims profits.

💡 ASML & Mistral (AI)

• Rumours: Dutch chip giant ASML investing \$1.5bn in French AI startup Mistral.
• ASML has cash $8.5bn, but risks blurring lines by funding customers’ ecosystem.
• Simon skeptical: “Picking AI winners this early is messy.”

📈 Bull Market Still Running

SA Top 40 at record highs (95k+). Possible push to 100k points this month. “This is still a bull market until it’s not.” 🐂🔥

🥇 Precious Metals

• Gold → holding gains, bullish above \$3,450.
• Platinum & Palladium → strong breakouts, holding support.
• Silver → resilient above \$40.
• Precious metals complex all looking firm. ✨

💵 Rand & Global Trade

• Rand currently at R17.55, with potential to test R17.00 if US cuts rates.
• Africa-China trade up 25% to $122bn → filling void left by US. 🇨🇳🤝🌍

🇺🇸 Trump’s Tariff Exemptions

Trump exempts; uranium, tungsten, graphite, gold, bullion from tariffs. Good news for SA resources sector.

🎙️ Final Thoughts

• Markets remain bullish, metals are shining, oil likely weaker, and crypto experiments continue.
• If you’re at Leaderex, come say hi 👋.
• Powered by Standard Bank & Shyft – the global money app for payments, travel, and investing.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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🌠Worldwide Markets Ep. 646 – 3 September 2025

ðŸŽ™ï¸ Hosted by Simon Brown

Powered by Standard Bank & Shyft, the global money app 💳ðŸŒ

📈 Key Topics This Week

🌠Emerging Markets: 20 Years of Poor Returns

EM ETFs have underperformed vs. the US and gold

20-year CAGR:

📊 NASDAQ: +1,400% (14.5% CAGR)

🟡 Gold: +700% (10.9% CAGR)

🇺🇸 S&P 500: +440% (8.7% CAGR)

🌠Emerging Markets: +193% (5.5% CAGR)

BRIC dream (Brazil, Russia, India, China) never delivered 💭

Headwinds: financial crises, currency depreciation 💸, weaker governance 📉

🟡 Gold & ⚪ Silver Running

Gold futures hit $3,560/oz 🚀

Central banks now hold more gold than US Treasuries

Silver back above $40, near 2011 highs

Stagflation worries (low growth, high inflation, debt) → gold demand surges

Gold weekly chart | 02 September 2025

🛒 Shoprite* Results & 60/60 Growth

Checkers 60/60 delivered R18.9bn revenue ðŸŽðŸ“¦

That’s nearly 20% of Checkers’ sales & close to Pick n Pay’s market cap

Strong results, inflation at just 2.3% ✅

Stock price up ~5%

🚗 Record August Vehicle Sales

51,880 units sold, highest since Oct 2019

Brands leading:

🚙 Toyota (13k+)

🚗 Suzuki (~6.5k)

🇨🇳 Rising share from Chinese brands (GWM, Chery, JAC)

Trend: consumers keeping cars longer, turning to cheaper imports ðŸ·ï¸

🧪 ASP Isotopes JSE Listing

Listed ahead of Renergen* takeover

Local pricing looks wildly inflated at R1,100 vs. realistic ~R165 📉

Very thin volumes; caution urged âš ï¸

🌠Geopolitics: New World Order

India 🤠Russia 🤠China meeting – cooperation on energy, fertilizers, space & security

Growing shift away from USD towards RMB in oil settlement

US power not gone yet, but cracks in global dominance showing ðŸ›ï¸

🔑 Takeaways

EM equities have disappointed; US tech dominance continues 💻

Gold remains a hedge in uncertain times 🟡

Shoprite Sixty60 is now a R20bn business 🚚

Car sales at record highs, boosted by affordable Chinese brands 🚘

Watch out for weird valuations in new listings 👀

Geopolitics shifting – 2025 could be a turning point ðŸŒ

📌 Next week’s episode will be late – Simon’s at LeaderX on Tuesday. Come say hi if you’re there! 🙌

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

📌 Key Themes This Week

• 📊 Naspers share split – AGM approves a 5-for-1 split to make shares more affordable for smaller investors.

• 💬 Jackson Hole update – Jerome Powell’s last appearance as Fed Chair, shifting focus from inflation to jobs. Markets pricing in September & December rate cuts with high certainty.

• 💸 Trump & the Fed – Trump fires Fed Governor Lisa Cook ❌ and pushes to pack the Fed with rate-cut friendly members.

• 🇺🇸 Intel stake – Trump administration takes a 10% stake in Intel via the Chips Act, raising questions about “state capitalism.”

• 📉 Dollar weakness – Dollar index slides, Rand strengthens to R17.44, risk-on sentiment in global markets.

• 💷 UK debt crisis – 30-year gilt yields at levels last seen in 1998 (5.6%). Mounting debt costs threaten stability.

📈 Company Results & Market Moves

• 🏫 ADvTech*

  • Strong results: 5-year CAGR → Dividends +24%, Revenue +13%, EPS doubled.

  • Enrolments still growing vs. competitor Curro shrinking.

  • Expanding into tertiary education in Ghana 🇬🇭.

  • Solid valuation: PE ~15, dividend yield ~3%.

• 🚢 Grindrod

  • Decent numbers, disposing businesses to strengthen balance sheet.

  • Awarded 3rd-party rail access via Transnet 🚂.

  • Cheap valuation: PE ~8, Price/Book ~1.

• 🛢️ Sasol

  • Results stronger than expected: Free cash flow R12bn (up from R7bn).

  • Stock rallied past R120, eyeing R140.

  • Needs stronger chemical markets, higher oil & weaker Rand for tailwinds.

• ⚙️ Nvidia (results pending)

  • Market eagerly awaiting numbers. Results due Wednesday aftermarket.

• 🪖 Rheinmetall

  • German defence stock up +160% YTD on European defence demand.

  • Valuations stretched (PE 89 vs. mean 23). Possible overheated trade.

🌐 Macro Watch

• 📉 US inflation & rate cuts – Markets expect two cuts in 2024, possibly November too. Powell less worried about inflation at 2.5–3%.

• 🏦 Tariffs & inflation – Spread over time, reducing immediate shock but sustaining price pressure.

• 💵 Debt & inflation – Inflation helps deflate $30T US debt mountain faster.

• 💷 UK bonds – Debt costs rising sharply, pushing the UK into deeper fiscal stress.

📌 Quick Hits

• 📉 S&P 500 at 23x earnings – Historically, this leads to flat 10-year returns (±2%).

• 💱 Dollar trend – Weakening outlook continues, aligning with Trump’s economic policy.

• 🇩🇪 Rheinmetall boom – Defence spending pushes stock sky-high, but risks of overheating.

• 📚 ETF database update – Now includes active ETFs 👉 justonelap.com/ETFdatabase.

• 🎥 Power Hour – Live session Tuesday 17:30 SA time, replay available later.

🎙️ Host: Simon Brown 📅 Recorded: Tuesday 27 August 2024 💡 Powered by Standard Bank & Shyft app

👉 Markets are on a risk-on rally 🚀, but with high valuations, debt risks, and political interference at central banks, caution remains the watchword.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

 

🌍 Worldwide Markets Ep. 644 – 20 August 2024

🎙️ Hosted by Simon Brown

This week’s episode dives into Buffett’s latest moves, Google’s iconic IPO, and big results from Standard Bank, MTN, and Sasol. Here’s what you need to know:

📈 Buffett Buys UnitedHealth – Should You Follow?

• Berkshire Hathaway picked up UnitedHealth (UNH).
• Stock has fallen from $600 → $308 due to federal investigations ⚖️.
• On paper, valuation looks attractive:
  • Forward PE ~19 (below long-term average).
  • Price-to-book ~2.9 vs decade average of 4.9.
• Analysts split: 2 sells, 5 holds, 12 buys, 6 strong buys.
• ⚠️ Simon’s take: “Don’t blindly follow Buffett. Healthcare is a regulatory minefield. Use it as a starting point, not a buy signal.”

🩺 Healthcare Investing Alternatives

• Johnson & Johnson* (JNJ) – more stable exposure.
• Healthcare services & REITs (e.g. hospitals, medical equipment).
• ETFs on JSE:
  • Satrix Healthcare Innovation ETF (STXHLT).
  • Signia’s healthcare exposure sits in their active funds.
• Note: Active ETFs will soon be added to local databases ✅.

🏦 Standard Bank Results

• ROE: 19.1% – huge number.
• Forward PE: 8 (cheap vs historical 10.1).
• Dividend yield: 6.6% 💰.
• Price-to-book: 1.4 (in line with decade average).
• Expanding strongly across Africa 🌍.
• Simon: “Boring, quality portfolio stock. I like it, but waiting for cheaper entry near 240.”

Standard Bank | Weekly

📱 MTN Results

• Headline numbers looked great due to base effects from currency collapses in Ghana 🇬🇭 & Nigeria 🇳🇬.
• Market unimpressed: stock fell 8% 📉.
• Still strong 1-year return: +77% (incl. dividends +83%).
• Forward PE ~13.5 vs long-term 25 → appears undervalued.
• Risks: exec churn, CAPEX-heavy, regulatory hurdles.
• Simon: “Not a fan of telcos – data is just a utility.”

🛢️ Sasol Update

• Stock bounced from R50 → R100.
• Weak oil price outlook could hurt 📉.
• Operations improving, second-half expected stronger.
• Simon’s take: “Not a long-term hold. More of a trade: buy around R100, maybe ride it to R140, then get out.”

🔎 Google’s IPO Turns 21 🎂

• IPO’d in 2004 via Dutch Auction – gave retail investors equal footing vs institutions.
• Raised $1.66bn at $85/share.
• Today’s market cap ~ $2.5 trillion 🤯.
• Return: ~8,000% since IPO 🚀.
• Fun fact: for years, Domino’s Pizza IPO (same week) had similar returns 🍕 vs 🔍, but Google pulled ahead.
• Regulatory cloud: pending US judgment in August could hit stock short term ⚖️ → Simon says: “If it falls, I’ll be buying.”

💡 Key Takeaways

• Don’t just copy Buffett – do your homework 📝.
• Healthcare remains risky but ETFs & REITs offer cleaner exposure.
• Standard Bank looks solid, MTN looks risky, Sasol looks tradable.
• Google’s IPO remains one of the best investments of all time – and could still offer value despite regulation headwinds.

👉 Worldwide Markets is powered by Standard Bank Global Markets and Shyft – the app that gives you the cheapest forex rates anytime, anywhere 🌍📱.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🇺🇸 US Inflation – Numbers come in softer than expected 📊, fuelling hopes for a **September rate cut** from the Fed 🏦.

⛽ Sasol trading update – PE under 3 😮, H2 profits looking stronger, and the market loving it (+9.7% 🚀).

💰 Share buybacks – Why US companies love them, the tax angle, and Apple’s massive \$100bn spree 🍏.

Apple out standing shares

🪙 Gold & the Resi10 index – Resource stocks roaring in 2024, +72.5% YTD 🤯, but will gold break out of its range? 

Gold Weekly | 12 August 2025

🇨🇳 China trade surplus – Despite tariffs & tensions, it hits a record \$1.2 trillion 📦.

🖥️ Trump vs. Nvidia & AMD – AI chip sales to China now taxed at 15%, and Beijing warns against buying certain models 🤖.

📊 Tool – Just One Lap’s ETF Database is live! Filter by issuer, classification, tax-free status, and even search top holdings 🔍.

Powered by Standard Bank & Shyft – the global money app for travel, shopping, payments & investments 🌍.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🎙️ Worldwide Markets – Episode 642 📅 Recorded: Tuesday, 5 August 💼 Host: Simon Brown 🌍 Powered by Standard Bank Shyft – The global money app for travel, shopping, payments & investing.

🔮 Market Highlights

• 📈 Purple Group* rocks 🚀 Share price has more than doubled since April lows. 🧾 PE at 56, but strong growth potential and product expansion. 💼 Simon holds the stock — bought low, holding for the long term.

 

• 🏦 MPC shifts inflation target 🎯 🔽 New anchor at 3%, down from 4.5%. ⚠️ Finance Minister pushes back — governance concerns. 💸 Lower inflation = lower raises = better expectations management. 🧨 Flip side: high real interest rates hurt growth & jobs.

 

• 🚗 Vehicle sales boom 📊 July sales >51,000 units — highest since 2019! 🛻 Light commercial vehicles dominate, Mahindra sneaks into Top 10. 💰 CMH* shines with low PE and high dividend — Simon holds. 📉 Motus also cheap, but Simon prefers CMH.

 

• 🪙 Gold miners printing money ✨ AngloGold Ashanti*:
  • 🚜 Production +21%
  • 💰 Free cash flow +149%
  • 📉 Net debt down 92%
  • 💵 80c dividend
  • 💹 Targeting R1,000/share — already at R972! ✨ Gold Fields also up ~150% YoY on earnings.

 

• 🧾 US Bureau of Labor Statistics drama 🇺🇸 🔥 Trump fires BLS head after unfavourable jobs data. ❗ Undermines trust in data — risks U.S. credibility. 🌎 Bad precedent: Greece, Argentina, China have all suffered from politicised stats.
• 🍊 Tariffs impact SA agriculture 🇺🇸 U.S. tariffs on citrus & grapes kick in Thursday. 📉 Sector exposure: ~10% — not massive but not zero. 👨‍🌾 Some farmers and related stocks (e.g. Mpact) will take a hit.

🧠 Random Insights

• 🪙 Crypto in Parliament? 🇿🇦 Of 490 South African parliamentarians… only 2 declared owning crypto. 🤷‍♂️ No surprise crypto isn’t getting policy attention.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

 

🔺 Tariffs Incoming 🇿🇦 SA faces 30% US tariffs starting Friday. 🚗 Auto industry, 🍊 citrus, 🚚 logistics & 🧪 fertilizer sectors (like Omnia, Kaap Agri, Impact) to feel the heat — but no fatal blows expected.

📉 MPC Policy Misfire? 💰 SA inflation at 3%, but rates still stuck at 10.75%. 📉 Is the MPC behind the curve? Simon says: Yes. 📉 Calls for a rate cut of at least 0.5% to 1%.

SA CPI and Prime | 29 July 2025

🥇 Why Hasn’t the SARB Bought Gold in 20 Years? 📊 From 2005 to 2025: only ±48,000 ounces added. 📉 Gold outperformed the USD by a wide margin (680% vs 171%) over 20 years. 🤔 Why the gold aversion? Simon wants answers.

📈 Structured Product Spotlight 💼 New Standard Bank product: ✔️ 100% capital guarantee ✔️ 1.8x upside gearing ✔️ MSCI World Index exposure 📆 3.5 year duration, paid out in ETFs 💸 Min R25k. Closes in Sept.

🚘 Chinese Cars Disrupting the Market 🇨🇳 Omoda CX5 & CS9 – slick, affordable, feature-packed 💡 Screens bigger than laptops, prices lower than rivals ⚠️ Toyota, Ford, VW: Time to worry?

💊 Big Pharma Blunder 🤦‍♂️ Novo Nordisk loses Canadian patent by forgetting to pay a $250 fee 📉 Generics incoming. Massive oops.

🔍 Alphabet Results 💹 Stock up 15% since Simon’s last mention 💰 $95bn cash, low debt ⚖️ Facing antitrust heat – rulings incoming 📉 Possible price dip = buying opportunity?

📢 Next week: Who owns what in Parliament? Crypto, shares, surprises await…

🧠 Hosted by Simon Brown 💳 Powered by Standard Bank & Shyft – the global money app for smart travellers & investors

🌍 This week on Worldwide Markets, Simon dives into a packed show covering inflation, earnings, property deals, and opportunities in local stocks. Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets and Shyft — your gateway to global investing. 🌐💸

📉 Inflation Target Cut – A Bad Idea? • SA may shift to a 3% inflation target 📊 • Risks of higher interest rates 😬 • Real rates already sky-high 🚀

💵 Weaker US Dollar & Tech Gains • Trump’s weaker dollar policy in motion 🇺🇸📉 • MAG7 & Nasdaq benefit: 49%+ offshore revenue 🖥️🌐 • S&P 500 and Russell 2000 lag

🏢 Sibanye-Stillwater* Diversifies • Buys US recycling business ♻️ • Adds silver, copper, and skills 🪙🔧 • Expands beyond PGMs and gold

🪙 Voltara & PGMs Running Hot • Valterra Platinum update reflects flood damage & weak past PGM prices 🌊 • But platinum & palladium now breaking resistance levels 📈🔥

🏬 Hyprop’s Bid for MAS PLC • Cash or shares deal (R24 or Hyprop stock) 💰 • Hyprop focuses on Western Cape & Eastern Europe 🏖️🌍 • Deal may not be in MAS shareholders’ best interest ❓

🪨 Afrimat: Value at R45? • Price on long-term support line 📉🧱 • Concerns: iron ore, Lafarge deal, site near Mozambique 🇲🇿 • Van Heerden’s track record solid 💼💪 • Forward PE ~11, below decade mean 🔍

🧪 New ETF Database (Beta) • Search by issuer, classification, TER & more 🔍📊 • Explore at justonelap.com/etfdatabase 🧱📂 • Feedback welcome!

📜 SA Budget Drama • Multi-party politics = budget complexity 🧠 • Education budget almost derailed ❗

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

 

🎙 This Week in Markets: US inflation ticks higher 📈, putting pressure on rate cuts. Powell's in no rush. Local rates also due end-July.

🏘 China Housing Trouble: 3 years of negative home price growth in China 🇨🇳. Citizens frustrated as property values slide. Evergrande and other ghosts still haunt.

Chinese Home prices Year-on-Year | June 2025

🚀 Elon Watch: Musk injects $2B into XAI 🤖. Deck chairs shuffled? Investors seem to approve.

🔩 PGMs Shine: Platinum and palladium break higher ⚪, supported by tightening supply. Miners like Sibanye*, Implats, and Northam bask in the glow.

💻 Nvidia Milestone: First $4 trillion company 🤯. AI + autonomous driving = future. Trump eases chip restrictions.

📦 Copper Tariffs: Trump proposes 50% import tariffs on copper 🔧. Could spark domestic production—or not.

📉 Gold & Oil: Gold drifts within range 🪙. Oil facing resistance again 🛢, needs a breakout above $77 to excite bulls.

₿ Bitcoin Treasury Companies: Why buy MicroStrategy at a premium when you can just buy Bitcoin? 🤷‍♂️ Financial engineering vs. logic. 📊 Strategy (ex-MicroStrategy) holds 600,000+ BTC. 🇿🇦 Altvest has one BTC—also in the mix.

🏛 Crypto Legislation: US considers classifying crypto as a commodity 🪙, stablecoins gaining traction. It’s Bitcoin Week at the White House. 🇺🇸

💸 ZAR & Tariffs: Rand weakened after US slaps 30% tariffs on SA imports ⚠️. Trump’s unpredictability rattles markets.

🧠 Coming Soon on Power Hour: 📅 August: Moxima Gama on advanced charting 📅 November: Keillen Ndlovu on REITs (local & offshore)

🧭 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets and Shift, the global money app 💳 🌍 Travel | 💱 Forex | 🛒 Spend | 📈 Invest — All in your hand.

🎧 Leave a rating and review — every bit helps! 📢 Back next week with more market insights.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

 

Simon’s on holiday in sunny Durban 🌞 but couldn’t resist diving into what might be Trump’s grand economic plan. On the surface, it’s tariffs, spending cuts and tax breaks—but is there real strategy underneath the chaos?

🔹 Trump’s Big Idea: Use tariffs to raise revenue and onshore manufacturing 🏭 🔹 Debt Drama: US debt now > $30 trillion 😬 🔹 Tariffs Everywhere: South Africa slapped with 30%—and so is everyone else 🌍 🔹 Reshoring & Inflation: Could higher costs push inflation up again? 💸🔥 🔹 No Deals Signed: 90 deals in 90 days? 0 delivered 🤷‍♂️ 🔹 Foreign Policy Fallout: NATO, Mexico, Canada—strained relationships 🌐💥 🔹 Cut Spending: USAID, EV subsidies, and soft power eroded 🚫🌱 🔹 Regulation Rollback: Less red tape, but also less consumer/environmental protection 🧾♻️ 🔹 Crypto & Energy: Deregulate crypto, cozy up to OPEC for cheap oil ⛽🪙 🔹 Mar-a-Lago Accord?: A currency + Treasury buying pact that needs allies—who aren't coming 🤝❌ 🔹 Immigration & Performance Politics: Headlines vs. actual impact 🛂📺

💬 There’s a thread of logic, but execution has been clumsy at best. Allies alienated, deals undelivered. The endgame? Likely messy and inflationary.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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