🎙️ Worldwide Markets – Episode 663

📅 28 January | Recorded late Tuesday afternoon Host: Simon Brown

Powered by: Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft – the global money app for travel, shopping, payments & investing 🌍💳

This week a quick look at gold and the Rand, both did what was expected over the year in the first month.

Then picks for the Cristal Challenge 2026 and the Moneyweb Investor Challenge.

Three bankers that go into each challenge. Then four floaters, two per each challenge to mix it up a bit.

Best of luck to all who enter :)

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

For the thirteenth year in a row Keith McLachlan, Marc Ashton and Simon Brown kick off the new year with a predictions show.

First they check in and mark what they said last year. Then they each offer three predictions for the year ahead and a view on the Top40 and Rand/

Find last years show here.

🌍 Worldwide Markets — Episode 660

🎙️ The Best and Worst of the JSE in 2025

📅 10 December 2025 🎧 Final episode of the year — back 14 January 2026 💼 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft

🏁 Opening Thoughts

• Last podcast of 2025! 🎉

• A huge thank-you to listeners, watchers and everyone who engaged across the year 🙏

• A wild year for markets, but a great year for returns 📈

• Wishing everyone a restful and safe festive break ✈️🌞

🎥 Power Hour Recap — Position Your Portfolio for 2026

📌 Highlights included:

• 🔙 Looking back at 2025's predictions (keeping it honest!)

• 🤖 The state of AI: spotting bubbles, when to worry, triggers to watch

• 💰 Gold & commodities outlook

• 🛍️ Local retail — opportunities & risks

• 🚀 IPO environment

• 🧭 Positioning for 2026

Watch here.

🥇 Best Performers of the JSE in 2025 🪙 1. Precious Metals: The Dominant Theme of 2025

Gold & PGM miners absolutely owned the market this year. If you weren't in them… your portfolio lagged the benchmark.

Top returns (total return to 8 Dec):

• 🥇 Sibanye-Stillwater* — +258% 🤯

• 🥈 AngloGold Ashanti* — ~+240%

• 🥉 Northam — +214%

• 🏅 Gold Fields — +195%

• Implats — +153%

• Thungela / Valterra / others — 130–140% range

• Harmony — +119%

📌 Why the boom?

• Gold price exploded early in the year 🌕

• Safe-haven flows amid tariff drama, budgets, DeepSeek shock

• Strong production + not-yet-expensive valuations

💬 Simon: Still bullish on gold miners — not expecting another double, but valuations remain attractive if gold holds current levels.

🎓 2. Education Sector Winners

• 🎓 Stadio — +89%

• 🧑‍🏫 Killed it with distance learning demand and tertiary approvals

• 📉 Curo delisted; ADvTech* solid with +20%

🟣 3. Purple Group* & EasyEquities

• +87% 🚀

• Bull markets = busy brokers

• Results were slightly soft in H2 (bonuses cycle), but long-term story intact

📡 4. Telcos Roar Back (From a Very Low Base)

• 📱 MTN — +76%

• 🔵 Blue Label — +73% (Cell C momentum)

• 🔌 IOCA — +65%

• ☎️ Telkom — +60%

• 🟥 Vodacom — +38%

📌 Simon sold MTN a decade ago during the Nigerian fine panic — and never re-entered. Lesson: When it's time to panic, panic fast.

💰 5. Standout Financials & Miscellaneous

• 🟪 Sygnia — +72%

• 💻 Datatec — +70% (surprise performer)

• 🍗 Astral — +49% (thanks, cheaper maize!)

• 🐓 Rainbow Chicken — +43%

• 🏢 Growthpoint — +48% (big dividends)

• 🧱 Property sector broadly strong again: Redefine, Octodec, etc.

• 🏦 PSG Financial Services — +40%

• 💼 Capitec — +29%

• 🏦 Standard Bank — +31% — notably ahead of Capitec

• 🟧 Naspers — +25% (Simon sees opportunity post-share split)

• 🛢️ Sasol — +25% (still not a favourite)

🛒 6. Retail: The Year's Big Disappointment

• 🛋️ Lewis — +22% (but deep down the list)

• 🥩 Spur — +15%

• 🍗 Famous Brands — –16%

• 🛒 Shoprite* — –4.6% (value emerging)

• 🛍️ Pick n Pay — –17% (slow turnaround)

• 👗 Mr Price* — –26% (Simon still sees value)

• 👟 Pepkor — weak, but potential for recovery

🔻 Worst Performers of the JSE in 2025 💥 Biggest Losers

• 🚨 Nutun / Transaction Capital legacy — –52%

• 👗 Foschini* (TFG) — –50%

• 📄 Sappi — –46% (ongoing structural challenges)

• 🧱 Afrimat — –43% (Lafarge integration still tough; Simon sees opportunity)

• 💉 Aspen — –43% (lost sterile facility contract; utilization still weak)

• 🔧 Cashbuild — –37% (SA consumers tapped out)

• 📺 eMedia — heavy selling post-unbundling

🛒 Retailers Under Pressure

• 🥀 Spar — –28% (competition from Boxer + Shoprite* + Pick n Pay)

• 👖 Mr Price* — –26%

• 🍔 Famous Brands — –16%

• 🍩 Life Healthcare, Renergen*, ArcelorMittal SA — all struggling

📉 Macro, Risks & 2026 Outlook 🌱 Green Shoots in South Africa

• Early signs of improvement appearing

• Fragile but real: improving volumes, some recovery in SA Inc, stabilising consumer pockets

• REITs & banks starting from low valuations

⚠️ Risks

• Moody's kept SA unchanged; risks tilt to the downside

• A global AI bubble burst would hit emerging markets hard

• External shocks more dangerous than local issues

📈 Global Watch: The Mag 7 & Market Signals

• Bubble warning model: Two giants below the 200-day MA

• Meta dipped back below — but still only one of the seven triggering

• Nvidia chart still healthy

• Gold still bullish

• Oil looks very weak

🤝 Closing the Year

Simon wraps 2025 with gratitude and optimism:

• ✨ "It's been a year — a wild one — but at least we got returns."

• ❄️ Be safe this festive season

• 🙌 Special thanks to those working through December (retail, hospitality, logistics)

• 🎙️ Back 14 January 2026 with the annual predictions show featuring Keith McLachlan & Marc Ashton — and, as always, they'll mark themselves before forecasting ahead.

🔗 Powered By

🏦 Standard Bank Global Markets 🌍 Shyft – the global money app 💸 Cheapest Forex rates, anywhere, anytime

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

Worldwide Markets – Episode 659 Show Notes

"It's Been a Year… But Markets Loved It"

📆 3 December 2025 🎙️ Host: Simon Brown 🏦 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft — the global money app.

🌍 Opening: A Wild Year That Somehow Ended Beautifully

• Despite chaos from January to April — tariffs, collapsing markets, surging yields, rand at 19.90 — markets still delivered a stellar year.

• If you had gone on holiday 1 Jan and checked your portfolio today, you'd think it was a boring year… but Yowza! It was anything but.

• Reminder: Wall Street ≠ Main Street — markets often move ahead of economic reality.

🤖 AI Chaos in January: DeepSeek Shakes the Market

• Chinese model DeepSeek stunned the AI world, training for ~$6m vs OpenAI's multi-billion dollar spend.

• Raised questions: cheaper API access, open-source surge, China's rapid AI emergence.

• Set the tone for a year of AI leapfrogging between global players.

🇺🇸 The Trump Factor: Tariffs Everywhere

• Trump sworn in (20 Jan) → tariffs on Mexico & Canada within days.

• Tore up the post-WW2 geopolitical playbook → raised questions of US reliability going forward.

• Triggered global uncertainty but markets... shrugged.

🇿🇦 Local Madness: The Three Budget Attempts

• SA tried three times to get a budget passed.

• Rand collapses into "Liberation Tariff Day", hits 19.90 → quickly followed by "90 deals in 90 days" promises.

• Only three months in and the year was already unhinged.

📉 April Market Meltdown… Followed by a Stunning Recovery

• US 10-yr at 4.5%, US equities down 15%, local markets collapsing, bonds selling off.

• By December → Nikkei near highs, Europe at highs, JSE powered by gold, US pushed by the Mag 7.

• Markets looked glorious by year-end, despite everything.

🎙️ Upcoming: Best-Performing JSE Stocks of 2025

• Spoiler: Gold miners will dominate.

• Full breakdown coming next week in the final show of 2025.

🖼️ NanoBanana & Gemini: AI Image Tools Blow Simon's Mind

• Simon has used DALL·E heavily for two years — but:

  • ❌ slow

  • ❌ bad at text

  • ❌ struggles with edits

• NanoBanana + Gemini 3:

  • ⚡ insanely fast

  • 🔠 perfect text edits

  • 🎨 clean output

• Alphabet has:

  • 💰 massive free cash flow

  • 🌐 billions of users

  • 📢 advertising infrastructure

• → Giving them a potential edge in AI monetisation (for now).

📈 AI Stock Bubble: Is It Popping?

• Nvidia chart not bearish — holding support around 165–166 and bouncing.

• Mag 7 vs 200-day moving average:

  • ⬇️ Only Meta is below.

  • Microsoft, Amazon still comfortably above.

• Conclusion:

  • 🤯 We are in a bubble… but it's not bursting yet.

  • More insights coming in the Power Hour.

[caption id="attachment_55081" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Nvidia weekly chart | 01 December 2025[/caption]

🪙 Bitcoin: The Chart Looks Ugly

• Trump is the most pro-crypto president ever, but BTC isn't reacting positively.

• Peaked at $126k in October → now around $87k.

• Breaking support levels:

  • ⚠️ If current zone doesn't hold → sub-$70k likely.

• Gold vs Bitcoin comparison:

  • 🥇 Gold behaves like a hedge.

  • ₿ Bitcoin remains a speculative asset, not a store of value or inflation hedge.

[caption id="attachment_55082" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Bitcoin weekly chart | 02 December 2025[/caption]

🇿🇦 South African GDP: Some Bright Spots

Q3 2025 GDP:

• 📈 +0.5% QoQ

• 📈 +2.1% YoY

• 🚧 Gross fixed capital formation +1.6% → first strong rise since Q2 2023.

  • Means: building → roads, dams, solar, infrastructure — very positive.

🏦 Banks Benefit Most

Reasons:

• 👍 GDP uptick

• ⬆️ Credit upgrades

• ⬇️ Lower expected inflation

• ⬇️ Lower rates coming

• 🟩 Off the grey list

Valuations:

• Price-to-book: 1.0–1.5×

• Yields: high single digits

• Winners depend on style:

  • 💸 Deep value → ABSA, Nedbank

  • ⚖️ Balanced → Standard Bank, FNB

  • 🦄 Premium → Capitec (always expensive)

🏢 Shaftesbury (UK REIT): One to Watch

• Formerly Capital & Counties.

• Own Covent Garden & key West End locations.

• Never recovered from Brexit: from £4 → now £1.42.

• Fundamentals:

  • 💰 Single-digit PE (~8)

  • 📉 Yield 2.7%

  • 📊 Analyst range: £1.48–£2.10

• Not a buy yet — but on the watchlist due to prime assets.

🏘️ SA Property: The Easy Money Is Gone

• SA REITs had:

  • 🚀 Huge 2024

  • 📈 Strong 2025

• Many now trade around NAV:

  • Storage, Spear, Vukile → at/near NAV

  • Octodec → still at discount

• Simon prefers 15% discount to NAV before buying.

• Markets have closed the gap — valuations now full.

• If REITs move to 10–15% premiums, Simon will run.

🔮 Next Week: Final Show of 2025

• Full list of best and worst JSE performers of the year.

• Small caps that surprised everyone.

• Then → back week of 12 Jan with Marc Ashton & Keith McLachlan for the annual predictions episode.

👋 Wrap-Up

A shorter show this week, but packed with market insight, AI breakthroughs, Bitcoin trouble, UK property opportunities, and SA's slow-but-positive GDP recovery.

As always: 💙 Look after yourself. 🤝 And if you can, look after someone else too.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

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🌍 Worldwide Markets – Episode 658

📅 26 November 2025 🎙️ Hosted by Simon Brown 💼 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft

🔥 This Week's Big Themes

• 📊 JSE 10-year returns — miners dominate!

• 💽 Nvidia results: great numbers, strange market reaction

• 🥇 Harmony goes big on copper

• 🛠️ SA Inc sleeper stock ready to run with GDP recovery

• 📦 Process/Tencent update: super-app dreams + buybacks

• 🧠 Standard Bank launches new AI structured product

• 🎯 Power Hour: Position your portfolio for 2026 (8 December)

🏭 Invicta Results — A Deep Value SA Inc Play

• 🏗️ Capital equipment group with exposure to SA, EU, US & Asia.

• 🌍 Tariffs hit their China → US shipments.

• 💰 Valuation extremely cheap:

  • PE

  • Dividend yield > 3%

  • Price-to-book: 0.7

• 🚧 SA's weak GDP is the drag — but a recovery to 1.8% → 2% → 3% could turn this into a major SA Inc winner.

• ⚙️ Manufacturers sweating assets = more parts sold = small cyclical buffer.

🥢 Prosus / Naspers / Tencent — Cash Flow Turns Positive

• 💵 First positive free cash flow ever → +$59m vs -$104m.

• 💰 Billions of $ in cash reserves.

• 🍔 Food delivery (iFood, etc.) gaining scale + working toward a unified "super-app" model.

• 🧧 Still overwhelmingly driven by Tencent, but:

  • 🎮 Tencent Games

  • 🎵 Tencent Music

  • 📺 Online ads

  • 📱 WeChat ecosystem

  • 🎥 Epic Games stake

  • 🎞️ TikTok-style platforms

• 🔄 Ongoing share buybacks funded by selling Tencent into Hong Kong.

💻 Nvidia — Big Beat, Yet the Stock Falls?

• 📈 Beat on revenue, profit, and guidance — classic Nvidia.

• 🤔 But inventory jumped 32%, raising questions about demand visibility.

• 🏭 Meta reportedly exploring Google chips, with Amazon & Google also pushing their own silicon.

• ⚠️ Non-Nvidia chips = slower + higher power usage → still "B-grade".

• 📉 Technically:

  • Support at ~$180

  • Next support ~$166

  • Further support ~$150s

• 🎈 Bubble chatter now turning into "yes, it is a bubble" — but bubbles go UP before they pop.

• 📉 Mag-7 200-day MA signals:

  • Only Meta sits below (-10%).

  • Microsoft almost there (+1.5%).

  • Amazon also soft (+5%).

🥇 Harmony — From Gold to Copper Giant?

• 🪙 Buying + building the Eva copper project in Australia.

• 🧱 Production cost: $2.50/lb copper (vs spot ~$4.50–$5.25).

• ⛏️ Harmony is shifting from pure gold → gold + copper, diversifying earnings.

• 🎙️ Jimmy Moyaha's view:

  • ✔️ Good blend of cyclical exposures

  • ✔️ Some risk hedging between metals

• ⛏️ Deep SA gold mines = harder + costlier → copper is a logical hedge.

• 🔌 Copper = "metal of the future" (again) due to electrification & green tech.

🧠 Standard Bank AI Structured Product (Now Open!)

• 🧺 Basket:

  • 🇺🇸 US Tech (NASDAQ)

  • 🇨🇳 China Tech (KWEB)

• 💸 Auto-call feature:

  • Year 1: If both indices are positive → 16% payout

  • If not, each subsequent year with positivity → 16% per year

  • Max 5-year horizon = up to 80%

• 🛡️ Capital protection:

  • 100% capital back if indices not more than 30% down at maturity

• 💵 Minimum: R25,000 (+ R1,000 increments)

• 🗓️ Closing: 3 December 2025

• 📍 Available via OST or your stockbroker.

📈 10-Year JSE Winners — The Miners Dominate 🥇 Top Performers (per-year returns, excluding dividends)

• 🥇 Harmony Gold — 43.5% p.a. (3600% total!)

• 🥈 Gold Fields — 37%

• 🥉 Kumba Iron Ore — 33% (42% incl. dividends)

• ⚒️ Exxaro — 28% + 12% dividends

• ⚙️ Northam Platinum — 28.5%

• 🇬🇧 Argent — 27% (first non-miner)

• 💼 African Rainbow Capital / Valterra — 25%

• 🏦 Capitec — 22.5% + dividends → 24% total

• 🛠️ Bell Equipment, Merafe, Sibanye — strong ~19%+

• 🌐 Datatec — 19% + 17% dividends → 37%

📉 Big Losers (per-year declines)

• 🪓 Eskom (ELI / ACO) — -26%

• 📦 Nampak — -18%

• 🛏️ City Lodge — -14.5%

• 🧪 ArcelorMittal — -14%

• 💊 Aspen — -10%

• 🛢️ Sasol — -10%

• 🏘️ Balwin — -7%

• 🍔 Famous Brands — -7%

• 🧱 PPC — -5%

• 🛒 Pick n Pay — -5%

• 🏥 Netcare — -4.8%

• 🧺 Woolworths — 2.4% p.a. (only 1.4% incl. dividends)

📊 Top 40 — 10-Year Benchmark Performance

• 📈 118% total return over 10 years

• 📉 CAGR: 8.2% (≈10.5% incl. dividends)

• 📌 Best period: 11.6% (2019)

• 📌 Worst: ~3% during crisis

• 🎯 Real return (CPI ~5%): ≈7% — very respectable.

📣 Call to Action

💬 Tell us in the comments:

• Which 10-year winners do you own?

• Which stats shocked you most?

• What's your best-performing JSE stock of the last decade?

Worldwide Markets — Episode 657 (19 November 2025) 🗓️📈

🔥 This Week on Worldwide Markets

Good things are happening in South Africa 🇿🇦, bubble-watching on global markets 🎈, fresh ETF listings from Ninety One 📊, strong local results (Astral 🐔, WeBuyCars 🚗, Ninety One 💼), and the Year-End Power Hour opens for bookings 🎤✨.

🎈 Bubble Talk: When Does It Pop?

Guest Insight: Citigroup's Dirk Willer (via Odd Lots podcast) Definition: A bubble = asset prices 2 standard deviations above the 1-year average.

His exit rule:

➡️ Identify the drivers — the Magnificent 7 (Alphabet, Tesla, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta). ➡️ The bubble pops when 2 of the 7 fall below their 200-day EMA 📉.

Current Status:

• Meta: 12% below the 200-day ❗

• Microsoft: +5.4% above

• Amazon: +6.5% above

• Others still safely above.

👉 So we're halfway to bubble-popping territory. 👉 But: bubbles make money on the way up — timing the exit is the key.

Fun fact: Alphabet has negative net debt (more cash than debt) 💰.

📊 Ninety One Lists Two Actively Managed Income ETFs

Two new AMETFs hit the JSE:

🇿🇦 91DINC (Local Income ETF)

• Quarterly dividends

• TER: ~0.25% (incl VAT)

• Tax-free account eligible

• ~20-year unit trust track record

🌍 91GINC (Global Income ETF)

• Accumulating (rolls up dividends)

• ~9% USD yield target

• Pays in ZAR on the JSE

• ~4.5% current USD yield

Full explainer webcast here 🎥.

🇿🇦 Good Things Happening in South Africa

Yes, things are still tough — but several green shoots 🌱:

1️⃣ Greylist Exit

SA officially removed — major reputational win ✔️.

2️⃣ Medium-term Budget Positives

• Debt trajectory stabilising (may not hit 80%).

• Primary budget surplus — only ~6 countries globally manage this.

• Bond yields down ≈2%, reducing future borrowing costs.

• Precious metals boom boosting revenue 🪙⬆️.

3️⃣ New Inflation Target

• Formalised 3% target, with a 2–4% band 🎯.

• Helps competitiveness for exporters like citrus 🍊.

4️⃣ MPC Outlook

• Inflation at 3.4% — within band

• Simon expects a rate cut on Thursday ✂️💸.

5️⃣ Credit Rating Upgrade

S&P: Upgraded SA from 3-notches Junk → 2-notches Junk.

• First upgrade in 16 years ⭐

• Positive outlook — another upgrade possible.

Moody's review coming in December.

6️⃣ Load Shedding Gone (for now)

• Effectively no load shedding for months ⚡😊.

• Operation Vulindlela turning to Transnet next 🚢.

7️⃣ GNU Functioning Smoothly

• Budget passed without drama

• Coalition politics fading into the background — exactly where they should be.

⚠️ But:

• Chronic unemployment (31%+) 😔

• Inequality, poverty, crime remain severe issues → Growth is the only way to tackle these sustainably.

🎤 Year-End Power Hour — Book Now!

Theme: Position Your Portfolio for 2026

• Limited in-person seats

• Webcast available

• Simon reviews last year's predictions (and mocks himself 🤣)

• Then looks at 2026: gold, rand, upgrades, tariffs, etc.

👉 Book here

📈 Company Results Round-Up 🐔 Astral Foods

A horror first half… turned around:

What improved:

• Avian flu mostly gone; vaccination up to 30%

• Power issues stabilised

• Independent water supply

• Yellow maize prices lower 🌽⬇️

• Pricing back to Dec 2023 levels

Outlook: CEO Gary Arnold expects a strong FY to Sept 2025. More upside if maize stays low.

🚗 WeBuyCars

Trading update spooked the market — PE dropped from mid-20s → high teens.

Pressures:

• Cheap new Chinese cars (R300k range) compete aggressively 🇨🇳

• Slower earnings growth (~mid-teens)

Their response:

• Lower buying prices in segments competing with Chinese brands

• Future tailwind: cheap Chinese cars will enter second-hand market soon

• Record 16,000 monthly sales

• Scale still growing

Valuation: Simon sees value emerging in the low-40s 👀.

💼 Ninety One (Asset Manager)

• Strong numbers; bull markets = good for AUM

• Market sold it off (priced for perfection?)

• PE ~11, DY ~6% — cheap metrics

• Analysts: 2 buys, 2 holds, 1 strong sell

• Price target avg ≈ R47.34 (around current price)

🏛️ Coronation

• Last year's SARS case win inflated the base → No repeat special dividends → Lower YoY numbers expected.

💱 Rand & Commodities 🇿🇦 Rand

• Broke below 17/USD last week (first time since early 2023)

• Now back around 17.20

• Trend still strengthening — more in the Year-End Power Hour.

🪙 Gold

• Holding firm, not running

• Key levels:

  • Support: ~R39,20

  • Risk: Lower highs + lower lows if it breaks

• Currently steady around R4,050.

📉 Markets & Crypto

• S&P drawdown: ~3.5–4%

• Nasdaq: ~5–5.5% → Much panic for not much movement 🤷‍♂️.

₿ Bitcoin

• Looking rough under R90,000

⚙️ Nvidia Earnings — Wednesday

A major market catalyst. Bad numbers could turn sentiment quickly.

🔭 Coming Up Next Week

Simon looks at JSE top performers over the last 10 years 📈 (Spoiler: several gold miners… but almost all gains from the last year.)

Then it's December wrap-ups → and back in January.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

Worldwide Markets – Episode 656 (12 November)

Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets and Shyft – the global money app that puts travel, shopping, payments and investments in the palm of your hand 🌍💸

1) JSE Under Pressure 🏛️⚖️

Two issues in the spotlight:

a) Competition Commission Complaint A2X alleges JSE is being anti-competitive around BDA & settlement. This could have a long regulatory process. No quick outcomes expected.

b) Matengu Allegations Matengu alleges share price manipulation and claims to have emails implicating JSE directors.

• JSE has fired back and asked: Produce the emails.
• There is also a clear seller overhang (ex-director wanting out), which explains the price pressure more plausibly.

Takeaway: Overhang selling often looks like manipulation. But without proof, it's just selling pressure.

2) Should We Scrap SENS Announcements & HEPS? 🤔📰

The JSE is consulting on two potential changes:

• Reduce some SENS announcements (e.g., administrative ETF notices, floating rate resets, etc.)
• Possibly remove HEPS (Headline Earnings Per Share)

Simon's view: 🚫 Do not remove HEPS. HEPS is invaluable as an adjusted earnings measure, especially in SA where one-off corporate events are common. The process cost argument doesn't justify removing a critical metric.

4) Don't Fight the Trend 🟢📈

Two strong trends right now:

a) Gold 🥇

• Back above $4,100/oz after two brief red weeks.
• Long-term trend still strongly up.
• No point trying to call tops – enjoy the trend while it runs.

b) Rand 🇿🇦💪

• Strengthening since the "liberation blowout" in April (~19.90).
• Now around R17.14 – and trend still down (strengthening).
• This is not just USD weakness.
• Big inflows into SA bonds + stronger commodity prices supporting.

Next key level: R17 → If broken, expect move to low R15s.

5) Results Round-Up 📊💼 Company Sector Key Takeaways Outlook Stor-Age* REIT / Self-storage SA strong, UK okay. Trading near NAV (R17.77). Yield ~7%. Fairly valued, solid operator. Premier Group Bread, food manufacturing Revenue +6%, HEPS +27%. Efficiency gains + declining input costs. Not cheap, but high quality compounder. GE Aerospace (formerly General Electric) Aviation Engines & Service 75% of commercial planes use GE turbines. Service business = high margin recurring revenue. Trend beneficiary as global travel grows. Expensive, but maybe deserved. 6) KAP (PG Bison, UniTrans, beds, auto aftermarket) 🛏️🚚🛠️

• Earnings slump → PE looked blown out, but forward expectations show return to single-digit PE once capex is absorbed.
• Small-caps remain deeply unloved.
• Worth watching, but needs a catalyst.

7) Gold Miners – Pick Your Favourite ⛏️✨

If gold keeps running, most producers will make serious money.

Simon's preferences:

• AngloGold Ashanti* (ANG) – strong price action, holding trends well.
• Pan African (PAN) – up 7x since Oct 2022.

Others:

• Harmony – now has meaningful copper exposure.
• Sibanye* – gold + PGMs.

ETF option: Satrix RESI* – doubled this year (helped heavily by gold).

⏳ How long to hold? While gold trend remains intact.

Events & Dates 🗓️

• Monday 17 November @ 10:00 – 91 Income ETFs webcast Book: justonelap.com/events
• Friday 8 December – Final Power Hour: "Position Your Portfolio for 2026" Bookings open next week.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🌍 Worldwide Markets – Episode 655

Date: 5 November Host: Simon Brown Powered by: Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft – the global money app for travel, payments & investing.

🎙️ This Week's Big Questions

• When will markets crash? 🤯📉

• Will we finally get a sovereign ratings upgrade? 🇿🇦🔼

• Optasia* lists… but no IPO fireworks 💼🔔

• SA vehicle sales accelerate again 🚗📈

🚀 Shyft Migration Update

If you are an OST/Webtrader/ASI client — but have not yet been notified about migrating to Shyft — that simply means your group is scheduled for 2026, once remaining features roll out. 🔗 Watch the full Power Hour explainer:

🔔 Optasia* Listing – A Calm Debut

• IPO priced at R19

• Day 1: Opened R20.75 → Closed R19.38 (≈ +2% on a -2% market day)

• No big pop → but not a failure

• Existing shareholders + exec team locked in for 185–360 days

• Market consensus sees R25–R26 within 2–3 years if growth executes

Simon's stance: ✔️ Applied → got only 14% allocation ✔️ Holding ✔️ Looking to build the position over time

🚗 SA Vehicle Sales – Strong Again

October sales: 55,960 units ➡️ Best October since 2014 📈 Driven partly by car rental fleets restocking for the holiday season ✅ Still good news for motor retailers

🇿🇦 Potential Sovereign Ratings Upgrade?

• SA remains junk with Moody's, Fitch & S&P Global

• Outlooks have shifted flat → positive

• S&P may consider upgrade in November

• MTBPS next week: Expected to show higher-than-budgeted tax revenue → Thanks to booming gold & PGM prices ⚒️💰

But… 💬 Citadel's Maarten Ackerman: "Not so fast — upgrade may still take time."

Key stat: Foreigners purchased the most SA government bonds (Aug–Sep) since records began in 1994 — even while we remain junk.

🪙 Gold – Consolidating at $3,950–$4,050

• Price: $3,964 at recording

• Analyst view (Petri Redelinghuys from Herenya Capital Advisors): → Good entry zone for those who missed the earlier run

• Chart setup: Sideways consolidation, waiting for next leg

🌏 China–US Trade "Peace"?

• Trump offers tariff cuts on fentanyl ingredients

• China offers:

  • Soybean purchases 🌱 (they buy 50% of global supply)

  • Lifting rare earth export restrictions for 1 year 🧲

Reality: China still holds the real leverage here.

📉 Market Crash Fears – Let's Talk About It ✔️ Will markets crash?

Yes. Guaranteed. Always have. Always will.

❓ When?

Nobody knows. Not even the clever people.

🧱 Bull markets climb a wall of worry.

There are always scary headlines.

🎯 Key Takeaways

• Being in cash waiting for the crash is costly.

• Even when crashes happen, markets often do not fall back to where you sold.

• Timing the bottom is even harder.

• If you're worried → trim, rebalance, don't go 100% cash.

Stats (S&P 500 historical):

Market Type Average Length Average Move Bull Market 🟢 5.3 years +254% Bear Market 🔴 1 year -31%

Conclusion: Staying invested wins — unless you're already drawing retirement income.

🏁 Final Thoughts

• Markets will crash — we just don't know when

• Keep investing, keep rebalancing, don't try to be clever

• And remember: cash is a drag over the long term

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🌍 World Wide Markets Ep. 654 — 29 October 2025

🎙️ "Gold took us up … and gold will take us down."

🪙 Gold Takes the JSE for a Ride

• Gold led the JSE to record highs — and now it's leading it back down.
• Year-to-date returns:
  • Gold +49 %, Harmony +87 %, Pan African +126 %, DRD +150 %, Gold Fields +162 %, AngloGold Ashanti* +167 %!
  • Excluding dividends!
• Simon notes clear support around $3,600-3,800, with further downside likely.
• The Top 40 is up ~38 % YTD, but the Resources Index (Resi) is +93 % — remove that, and the market's ~20 %.
• Translation: half this year's gains came from gold ⛏️. When gold falls, the JSE will feel it.
• Simon spots a "kangaroo-tail" reversal candle — 10 straight green months is unprecedented 📉.
• Expect short-term weakness but the long-term gold story isn't over — deficits, inflation, and de-dollarization keep the bull case alive 💰.
• For those who "missed" gold, this pullback may be your chance — scale in slowly rather than catching the knife 🪙⚖️.

Top40 Monthly chart 2025

💡 Optasia IPO Extended

• Fintech AI & machine-learning listing — application deadline extended to Thursday 30 Oct (lunchtime).
• Simon applied after FirstRand took a 20.1 % stake at R 19, top of the range 💼.
• Despite muted enthusiasm from guests on Stock Watch, the institutional interest makes it intriguing 🤖📊.
• Allocation risk remains — expect to receive only a fraction 🎟️.

🚗 WeBuyCars: Market Hits the Brakes

• Trading update disappointed; share price −13.5 %.
• HEPS: 222 – 226 c vs ~240 c consensus ➡️ P/E ≈ 20 ("fair").
• Was pricey at ~30× earnings, now more realistic ⚖️.
• Chinese car imports may start competing at lower price points 🇨🇳 → potential pressure on used-car margins.
• Still, for those who missed the run, this could be a re-entry point 🚘.

🏠 Balwin Results

• Decent set of numbers — growth across Western Cape, KZN and Gauteng.
• No dividend 💧 → debt reduction focus.
• Sector tailwinds: lower rates + improving bond approvals (Uber = Ooba).
• Strong demand for mid-tier and affordable housing 🏗️.
• Simon holds Calgro M3* in the same space.

⛏️ Commodities & PGMs Holding Up

• Anglo American & Kumba raise guidance 👍 → stronger pricing and better rail flow.
• Valtera still recovering from floods, but higher PGM prices help.
• Platinum breakout ⚙️ $ 1 550 + after a decade range bound 850 – 1 100.
• Palladium rebounding too ( $ 1 700 resistance ).
• Trend: higher highs and higher lows 📈.

🏪 Pick n Pay: Slow Road to Recovery

• Still loss-making but loss shrinking 📉.
• Adjusting for Boxer, cash and tax deferrals → valuation ≈ –R 3 billion (cheap on paper).
• Sean Summers cautious: recovery will be slower than hoped.
• Needs to win market share from Shoprite* – a tough battle 🛒🆚.

🇨🇳🇺🇸 US-China Trade & Tariffs

• Possible trade deal emerging 🎯 — China may buy soybeans, ease rare-earth curbs.
• Perception = bullish for equities, bearish for gold (short term).
• US markets closing at record highs 📈 — a deal would supercharge them.
• Meanwhile, US Supreme Court to decide whether Trump can impose tariffs unilaterally.
  • Lower court said no → prediction markets expect he'll lose ⚖️.
  • Outcome could remove tariffs entirely – massive implications for trade and exporters.
  • Retroactive refunds possible? Unclear 💵❓

🏦 Shift Migration Update

• Standard Bank Online Share Trading, AutoShare Invest and WebTrader are migrating to the Shyft app 📲.
• Phase 2 migration this week → details at justonelap.com/powerhour.
• If you haven't been contacted, your turn comes in 2026 (probably after March).
• Shift offers cheapest Forex rates and multi-asset access globally 🌍💳.

💬 Final Thought

"Gold gave us the party — and now it's calling last rounds." Expect volatility, opportunities, and reversals — but don't lose the big picture.

Simon Brown 🎧 Worldwide Markets Ep. 654 | Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft 💙 Look after yourself — and someone else too.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order