WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown

Hyperscaler results from Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet produced numbers that almost don't seem real — combined remaining performance obligations of $1.46 trillion and Q1 capex of $112 billion.

Simon unpacks where that money is going, why copper is the quiet beneficiary, and which JSE stocks give exposure.

Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on $380 billion in cash, roughly 38% of its market cap — a meaningful drag while US markets sit at highs.

The memory makers — Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron — are choosing pricing power over capacity, with SK Hynix on a forward PE of 4.5.

Closer to home, the fuel price hike lands tomorrow with Brent back at $114, putting fragile consumer stocks under pressure. Plus an update on using AI for institutional-grade research and the upcoming JustOneLap events.

WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

US markets hit all-time highs this week even as $166 billion in Trump tariff refunds start processing — a windfall for retailers, but consumers who paid inflated prices at the till won't see a cent back.

Tim Cook is stepping down at Apple with John Ternus taking over, Amazon is spending $11.57 billion to buy Globalstar and build a Starlink rival, and Netflix delivered Q1 results with a $2.8 billion Warner break fee buried in the numbers.

Simon also breaks down the Fed Chair nomination battle, why market recoveries are getting faster, and the sixth anniversary of the day WTI oil went negative.

WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

US results season opens with Goldman Sachs and Johnson & Johnson both beating expectations — but the more interesting story is what those results don't show yet: the full impact of Middle East conflict and Trump's drug pricing pressure.

Simon also unpacks South Africa's looming fuel crisis and makes the economic case for working from home, a new 100% offshore ETF listing on the JSE from ETFSA, and an ASP Isotopes update for those holding a speculative position.

FNB's FCA-mandated R11.9bn provision for undisclosed UK vehicle finance commissions gets a full breakdown, as does the nuanced reality of the Straits of Hormuz "blockade" — it has T's and C's.

Plus a long-overdue Bitcoin check-in. WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

South African consumer stocks have been hammered.

In Episode 673 of WorldWideMarkets, Simon Brown works through the JSE's food and clothing retailers — Shoprite, Boxer, Pick n Pay, SPAR, Pepkor, Foschini Group, Mr. Price, Lewis, and Woolworths — asking where genuine value has emerged and where cheap simply means broken.

He also sets the macro scene with Trump's Wednesday deadline on Iran peace talks and what a Straits of Hormuz transit fee would mean for oil prices and inflation.

Stock by stock: valuations, analyst targets, dividend yields, and Simon's honest take on what he holds and why.

Topics covered: JSE retail sector, food retailers, clothing retailers, Iran oil risk, consumer inflation, SA discretionary spending.

WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

Simon reviews six listed space stocks ahead of the expected SpaceX IPO, which could debut above $2 trillion as early as June. Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Intuitive Machines, Firefly Aerospace, Planet Labs and Spire Global each get a SWOT breakdown, with the Procure Space ETF (UFO) as a diversified alternative. On the local front, the JSE Top 40 just posted its worst month since September 2008, falling roughly 10 percent from all-time highs. A massive petrol price increase takes effect at midnight. Simon discusses investing into a falling market, revisits the Algorithm Holdings AI hype collapse, and explains why CrowdStrike's CEO selling stock is not worth losing sleep over. WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

WorldWideMarkets episode 671 covers the return of US tariffs through Section 301 investigations targeting South Africa and 60 other countries — with no rate ceiling and no court precedent to stop them.

Simon unpacks the Iran war's tentative ceasefire talks, why Goldman Sachs revised its Brent forecast to $85, and what happens to oil and interest rates if the conflict drags on.

Monday's sharp gold selloff gets a post-mortem: leveraged FOMO unwinds, Turkey tapping reserves, and profit-taking after a year of doubling.

Two stock ideas round out the episode: Rocket Lab (RKLB) for pure-play space exposure and Franco Nevada (FNV) as a low-risk gold streaming alternative to miners.

Plus the MPC rate decision preview and a quick plug for the new AI in the Wild column.

WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

Worldwide Markets — Episode 680 | 18 March 2026 Powered by Standard Bank, Global Markets, Retail and Shyft

⛽ Fuel Price Pain Coming Petrol 95 up ~R4.50/litre and diesel up ~R7.50/litre from the first Wednesday in April. On a 50-litre tank that's R200+ for petrol and close to R400 for diesel. Fill up before April if you can.

🛢️ Oil & The Iran War Brent holding above $100/barrel (currently ~$103.50) — briefly dipping to $99.80 on Monday before recovering. Markets are pricing in a short war. Some vessels — largely Iranian-linked ships — are still moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE and Kuwait have cut production. Strategic oil reserves are being released globally.

📉 Market Reactions Drops from the start of the war's close: China -1%, US -4%, UK -5%, Europe -6%, India -8%, Japan -9%, South Korea -12%, UAE -15%, SA -~10%. The rand at R16.72, SA 10-year bond yield has surged from below 8% to 8.9% — a massive move.

🌍 Emerging Market Risks A deep dive into countries with high USD-denominated debt and heavy oil imports. The most vulnerable: Mozambique (38% USD debt), Ghana (28%), Egypt (27%), Sri Lanka (26%), Pakistan (22%). Egypt is the only one in the MSCI EM Index — at a 0.03% weighting — so the direct ETF risk is limited. But Egypt and Pakistan carry real standalone risk.

🌱 Fertilizer & Food Prices Urea (a byproduct of LNG) is largely sourced from the UAE — and it's not moving right now. Fertilizer prices are spiking. Combined with diesel costs, food price inflation is coming — just with a lag. Casey Sprake (AG Capital) maps the timeline: transport 1–3 months, food 1–3 months, broader CPI 4 months, electricity up to a year.

🛒 Mr. Price* Update The investor presentation on the German fashion retailer acquisition landed today. Stock was up ~2.5% earlier but has since retreated into the red — not an aggressive selloff, with support just below R170.

📊 Results Roundup

• AVI — solid numbers, strong margin protection, fashion had a surprisingly good December
• Weaver Fintech (formerly HomeChoice) — buy-now-pay-later funnel leading into unsecured credit and insurance; majority female customer base; a neat business model
• Absa — not bad
• Standard Bank — exceptional cost discipline
• Optasia* — maiden results, trading around listing price of ~R19, P/E ~30x but expected to grow at ~30%, PEG ~1

💻 SaaS Check-in The "SaaS is dead" debate continues. Mass layoffs (e.g. Block shedding ~4,000 staff) mean lost per-seat licences and potential revenue pressure. Worth watching, but tech hiring data still skews net positive for now.

🏦 Fed Chair Watch Trump's nominee Kevin Walsh hasn't been sent to the Senate yet — possibly compliance issues (Walsh's spouse is a billionaire). Senator Tillis (R) says he won't vote for any Fed chair nominee until charges against Jerome Powell are dropped. Jerome Powell's term ends end of May. Outcome unclear.

🧺 UK CPI Basket Changes Non-alcoholic beer, hummus, croissants, motorhomes and international rail fares are being added. Wine categories merged. Vegetables better represented. February data drops 25 March.

🤖 AI in the Wild Simon shares a cautionary Claude Opus 4.6 experience — building a detailed initiation report on ADvTech* worked well in parts, but the final consolidation hit rate limits, produced a corrupted document, and then delivered a garbled output with wrong JSE codes and incorrect founder attribution. A reminder that very long context windows can degrade LLM output quality.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

📅 11 March 2026 | Hosted by Simon Brown Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail & SHYFT

With geopolitical tensions and wild commodity moves, markets are extremely uncertain.

Simon's strategy right now?

🧘 Do nothing.

Panic trading rarely helps. In times of chaos, sometimes the best move is to step back, ignore the noise, and let events unfold.

Oil has been incredibly volatile.

📊 Recent moves

• Early January: ~$60
• Monday spike: ~$120
• Tuesday: briefly below $90
• Current level: ~$91

That still means oil is about 50% higher year-to-date.

The big issue remains disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.

🚢 Shipping traffic

• Normal flow: ~20 million barrels/day
• Last Wednesday: 0 barrels
• Monday: ~20% of normal

Oil supply is slowly returning, but the situation remains fragile.

Higher oil prices feed directly into local fuel prices.

💸 Earlier estimates suggested:

• Petrol: +R5.40
• Diesel: +R10

After oil pulled back slightly:

• Petrol increase may be ~R3
• Diesel ~R5

Still extremely painful for the economy.

Oil shocks ripple through inflation.

📊 Rule of thumb: Every $10 increase in oil adds ~0.4% to global inflation.

With oil roughly $30 higher, that could mean:

➡️ ~1.2% extra global inflation

For South Africa, that pushes inflation above 4% again.

Upcoming meetings:

• 🇺🇸 Fed decision: 18 March
• 🇿🇦 SARB MPC: 26 March

Previously expected: rate cuts.

Now?

❌ Cuts unlikely

Central banks will wait to see if second-round inflation effects emerge, things like higher transport and food costs.

Markets are asking one thing:

How long does this conflict last?

Current signals:

• Iran says it won't capitulate
• US and Israel still active
• UAE attacks have slowed

One possible constraint: missile inventories.

Iran's cheaper drones and missiles are being intercepted by extremely expensive defence systems.

At some point, stocks run out.

The G7 strategic reserves may be tapped.

📦 Strategic reserves: ~1.2 billion barrels

Possible release:

➡️ 300–400 million barrels

This could cover roughly 15–20 days of supply shortages caused by Hormuz disruptions.

That would buy time while infrastructure is repaired.

✔ Conflict ends within weeks ✔ Strategic reserves released ✔ Oil stabilises in the $80s

🔥 War escalates 🔥 Shipping disruptions persist 🔥 Oil spikes to $150–$200

At those levels, we start seeing demand destruction — people simply use less energy.

Standard Bank has launched a new structured product.

📊 AI & Big Data Auto Call

Key features:

💰 Return: 14% per year 📅 Term: Up to 5 years 🔁 Auto-call: Annual payout if index is flat or positive 💵 Currency: Rand 📉 Capital protection: Up to 30% downside buffer at maturity 📥 Minimum investment: R25,000

The product tracks the Solactive AI & Big Data Index.

Top holdings include:

• Nvidia
• Palantir
• Snowflake
• AMD
• Broadcom
• SoundHound AI
• Kingsoft Cloud
• BigBear.ai
• DataVault
• Zenitech

Total: 30 companies in the index.

South Africa released Q4 GDP.

📊 Q4 2025: +0.4%

Full-year growth:

• 2024: 0.5%
• 2025: 1.1%

Not amazing, but improving.

Forecast for 2026:

📈 1.6% – 1.8%

If that happens, SA could finally see GDP growth above population growth, meaning real gains in wealth per person.

The media industry continues consolidating.

Deal overview:

💰 Paramount Skydance buying Warner Bros Discovery 📦 Price: ~$100 billion

Netflix initially pursued the deal but walked away.

💵 Result:

• Netflix collected a $2.8B break fee
• Its stock jumped ~15%

New twist:

Tencent plans to invest several hundred million dollars in the acquisition.

For South African investors:

Satrix 40 → Naspers → Prosus → Tencent → Paramount.

Yes… it's complicated.

The concerns:

📉 Traditional media is declining 🤖 Studios betting on AI-generated content 🏛️ Politics may influence the deal

Warner Bros also has a long history of failed mega-mergers, including the infamous AOL–Time Warner disaster.

Simon's take:

This deal will likely be unwound later and probably at a lower price.

The US switched to daylight savings.

New trading times for South Africa:

📈 US markets open at 15:30 (was 16:30)

Simon is heading to Durban this weekend for his nephew's 18th birthday.

Time flies.

✔ Key Takeaway

Markets right now are being driven by geopolitics and energy prices.

Until the oil situation stabilises, central banks, and investors, are likely to remain cautious.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

⚖️ Budget Boost: A Rare Win for Taxpayers 🇿🇦💰

This week kicked off with a surprisingly investor-friendly South African budget — and markets initially loved it.

Key Changes:

• 📈 CGT annual exclusion: R40,000 → R50,000
• 🏠 Primary residence CGT exclusion: R2m → R3m
• 💼 Retirement contribution limit: R350k → R430k (or 27.5%)
• 🌍 Offshore SDA allowance: Doubled to R2m
• 🎁 Donations tax exemption: R100k → R150k
• 🧾 Tax-free savings annual limit: R36,000 → R46,000
• 🏢 VAT registration threshold: R1m → R2.3m

After years of "tax by stealth," this budget offered real relief — especially for investors and small businesses.

Data from NinetyOne & Morningstar suggests:

• ✅ Lump sum at the start of the tax year typically outperforms.
• 📊 But in volatile markets, patience may offer better entry points.

Simon has funded his tax-free — but hasn't deployed it yet 👀

Strong results from Dell Technologies sent the share price soaring ~20%.

• Entry around $118
• Now trading near $153
• AI infrastructure demand driving upside
• Big capex spend from hyperscalers boosting the thesis

US markets don't play gently — they reprice fast and aggressively.

The geopolitical narrative changed dramatically.

Escalating conflict involving Iran has rattled global markets — with oil at the center.

Key Developments:

• ⚠️ Reports of navigation threats in the Strait of Hormuz
• 🚢 Tankers rerouting / suspending activity
• 🛢️ Brent crude jumped from $72 → $83+
• 💸 Rand weakened to 16.36
• 📉 JSE down over 4%

About 20% of global oil supply passes through the Strait. Any prolonged disruption:

• 🚗 Pushes fuel prices higher
• 📈 Risks inflation spikes
• 🏦 Puts rate cuts at risk (MPC meeting: 26 March)
• 🌍 Raises global recession concerns

1. Quick de-escalation → Oil settles $75–$80
2. Prolonged tension → Oil $90+
3. Full closure → Brent $100+, global recession risk

South Africa imports ~70% of its crude — so oil + rand = inflation risk.

📌 Key message: Don't panic. Stay long-term focused.

February 2026 vehicle sales surprised again:

• 🚘 Total sales: 53,000 (vs ~48,000 last year)
• 📈 Local sales up 11%
• 📉 Exports down 28%
• 📊 Year-to-date sales up nearly 10%

Strong growth continues — particularly from Chinese brands gaining market share.

Despite geopolitical risk, domestic demand remains resilient.

Simon continues experimenting with AI tools like Claude & Perplexity for fundamental research.

Basket explored:

• Salesforce
• Adobe
• Intuit
• ServiceNow
• Workday
• Datadog

Preferred picks: ✅ Salesforce ✅ Adobe ✅ Intuit

AI-generated DCF models suggest potential upside between 40–75% (based on last week's pricing).

Key insight: Replacing enterprise software isn't about code — it's about retraining millions of users.

Markets are volatile. War introduces uncertainty. Oil is the key risk variable.

But:

• 🧠 Stay rational
• ⏳ Stay long term
• 💰 Deploy capital thoughtfully
• 🚫 Don't panic

If you've got time on your side — don't stress your portfolio.

See you next week 👋

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

This special broadcast is the recording of the Budget Panel 2026 with AJM, Baker Tilly Greenwoods, and FNB.

Simon Brown hosts and his guests are;

• The Hon Ashor Sarupen Dep Fin Minister
• Mamello Matikinca chief economist at FNB
• Dr Christo Wiese – business man
• Dr Albertus Marais – Partner AJM