WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown

Worldwide Markets — Episode 657 (19 November 2025) 🗓️📈

🔥 This Week on Worldwide Markets

Good things are happening in South Africa 🇿🇦, bubble-watching on global markets 🎈, fresh ETF listings from Ninety One 📊, strong local results (Astral 🐔, WeBuyCars 🚗, Ninety One 💼), and the Year-End Power Hour opens for bookings 🎤✨.

🎈 Bubble Talk: When Does It Pop?

Guest Insight: Citigroup's Dirk Willer (via Odd Lots podcast) Definition: A bubble = asset prices 2 standard deviations above the 1-year average.

His exit rule:

➡️ Identify the drivers — the Magnificent 7 (Alphabet, Tesla, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta). ➡️ The bubble pops when 2 of the 7 fall below their 200-day EMA 📉.

Current Status:

• Meta: 12% below the 200-day ❗

• Microsoft: +5.4% above

• Amazon: +6.5% above

• Others still safely above.

👉 So we're halfway to bubble-popping territory. 👉 But: bubbles make money on the way up — timing the exit is the key.

Fun fact: Alphabet has negative net debt (more cash than debt) 💰.

📊 Ninety One Lists Two Actively Managed Income ETFs

Two new AMETFs hit the JSE:

🇿🇦 91DINC (Local Income ETF)

• Quarterly dividends

• TER: ~0.25% (incl VAT)

• Tax-free account eligible

• ~20-year unit trust track record

🌍 91GINC (Global Income ETF)

• Accumulating (rolls up dividends)

• ~9% USD yield target

• Pays in ZAR on the JSE

• ~4.5% current USD yield

Full explainer webcast here 🎥.

🇿🇦 Good Things Happening in South Africa

Yes, things are still tough — but several green shoots 🌱:

1️⃣ Greylist Exit

SA officially removed — major reputational win ✔️.

2️⃣ Medium-term Budget Positives

• Debt trajectory stabilising (may not hit 80%).

• Primary budget surplus — only ~6 countries globally manage this.

• Bond yields down ≈2%, reducing future borrowing costs.

• Precious metals boom boosting revenue 🪙⬆️.

3️⃣ New Inflation Target

• Formalised 3% target, with a 2–4% band 🎯.

• Helps competitiveness for exporters like citrus 🍊.

4️⃣ MPC Outlook

• Inflation at 3.4% — within band

• Simon expects a rate cut on Thursday ✂️💸.

5️⃣ Credit Rating Upgrade

S&P: Upgraded SA from 3-notches Junk → 2-notches Junk.

• First upgrade in 16 years ⭐

• Positive outlook — another upgrade possible.

Moody's review coming in December.

6️⃣ Load Shedding Gone (for now)

• Effectively no load shedding for months ⚡😊.

• Operation Vulindlela turning to Transnet next 🚢.

7️⃣ GNU Functioning Smoothly

• Budget passed without drama

• Coalition politics fading into the background — exactly where they should be.

⚠️ But:

• Chronic unemployment (31%+) 😔

• Inequality, poverty, crime remain severe issues → Growth is the only way to tackle these sustainably.

🎤 Year-End Power Hour — Book Now!

Theme: Position Your Portfolio for 2026

• Limited in-person seats

• Webcast available

• Simon reviews last year's predictions (and mocks himself 🤣)

• Then looks at 2026: gold, rand, upgrades, tariffs, etc.

👉 Book here

📈 Company Results Round-Up 🐔 Astral Foods

A horror first half… turned around:

What improved:

• Avian flu mostly gone; vaccination up to 30%

• Power issues stabilised

• Independent water supply

• Yellow maize prices lower 🌽⬇️

• Pricing back to Dec 2023 levels

Outlook: CEO Gary Arnold expects a strong FY to Sept 2025. More upside if maize stays low.

🚗 WeBuyCars

Trading update spooked the market — PE dropped from mid-20s → high teens.

Pressures:

• Cheap new Chinese cars (R300k range) compete aggressively 🇨🇳

• Slower earnings growth (~mid-teens)

Their response:

• Lower buying prices in segments competing with Chinese brands

• Future tailwind: cheap Chinese cars will enter second-hand market soon

• Record 16,000 monthly sales

• Scale still growing

Valuation: Simon sees value emerging in the low-40s 👀.

💼 Ninety One (Asset Manager)

• Strong numbers; bull markets = good for AUM

• Market sold it off (priced for perfection?)

• PE ~11, DY ~6% — cheap metrics

• Analysts: 2 buys, 2 holds, 1 strong sell

• Price target avg ≈ R47.34 (around current price)

🏛️ Coronation

• Last year's SARS case win inflated the base → No repeat special dividends → Lower YoY numbers expected.

💱 Rand & Commodities 🇿🇦 Rand

• Broke below 17/USD last week (first time since early 2023)

• Now back around 17.20

• Trend still strengthening — more in the Year-End Power Hour.

🪙 Gold

• Holding firm, not running

• Key levels:

  • Support: ~R39,20

  • Risk: Lower highs + lower lows if it breaks

• Currently steady around R4,050.

📉 Markets & Crypto

• S&P drawdown: ~3.5–4%

• Nasdaq: ~5–5.5% → Much panic for not much movement 🤷‍♂️.

₿ Bitcoin

• Looking rough under R90,000

⚙️ Nvidia Earnings — Wednesday

A major market catalyst. Bad numbers could turn sentiment quickly.

🔭 Coming Up Next Week

Simon looks at JSE top performers over the last 10 years 📈 (Spoiler: several gold miners… but almost all gains from the last year.)

Then it's December wrap-ups → and back in January.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

Worldwide Markets – Episode 656 (12 November)

Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets and Shyft – the global money app that puts travel, shopping, payments and investments in the palm of your hand 🌍💸

1) JSE Under Pressure 🏛️⚖️

Two issues in the spotlight:

a) Competition Commission Complaint A2X alleges JSE is being anti-competitive around BDA & settlement. This could have a long regulatory process. No quick outcomes expected.

b) Matengu Allegations Matengu alleges share price manipulation and claims to have emails implicating JSE directors.

• JSE has fired back and asked: Produce the emails.
• There is also a clear seller overhang (ex-director wanting out), which explains the price pressure more plausibly.

Takeaway: Overhang selling often looks like manipulation. But without proof, it's just selling pressure.

2) Should We Scrap SENS Announcements & HEPS? 🤔📰

The JSE is consulting on two potential changes:

• Reduce some SENS announcements (e.g., administrative ETF notices, floating rate resets, etc.)
• Possibly remove HEPS (Headline Earnings Per Share)

Simon's view: 🚫 Do not remove HEPS. HEPS is invaluable as an adjusted earnings measure, especially in SA where one-off corporate events are common. The process cost argument doesn't justify removing a critical metric.

4) Don't Fight the Trend 🟢📈

Two strong trends right now:

a) Gold 🥇

• Back above $4,100/oz after two brief red weeks.
• Long-term trend still strongly up.
• No point trying to call tops – enjoy the trend while it runs.

b) Rand 🇿🇦💪

• Strengthening since the "liberation blowout" in April (~19.90).
• Now around R17.14 – and trend still down (strengthening).
• This is not just USD weakness.
• Big inflows into SA bonds + stronger commodity prices supporting.

Next key level: R17 → If broken, expect move to low R15s.

5) Results Round-Up 📊💼 Company Sector Key Takeaways Outlook Stor-Age* REIT / Self-storage SA strong, UK okay. Trading near NAV (R17.77). Yield ~7%. Fairly valued, solid operator. Premier Group Bread, food manufacturing Revenue +6%, HEPS +27%. Efficiency gains + declining input costs. Not cheap, but high quality compounder. GE Aerospace (formerly General Electric) Aviation Engines & Service 75% of commercial planes use GE turbines. Service business = high margin recurring revenue. Trend beneficiary as global travel grows. Expensive, but maybe deserved. 6) KAP (PG Bison, UniTrans, beds, auto aftermarket) 🛏️🚚🛠️

• Earnings slump → PE looked blown out, but forward expectations show return to single-digit PE once capex is absorbed.
• Small-caps remain deeply unloved.
• Worth watching, but needs a catalyst.

7) Gold Miners – Pick Your Favourite ⛏️✨

If gold keeps running, most producers will make serious money.

Simon's preferences:

• AngloGold Ashanti* (ANG) – strong price action, holding trends well.
• Pan African (PAN) – up 7x since Oct 2022.

Others:

• Harmony – now has meaningful copper exposure.
• Sibanye* – gold + PGMs.

ETF option: Satrix RESI* – doubled this year (helped heavily by gold).

⏳ How long to hold? While gold trend remains intact.

Events & Dates 🗓️

• Monday 17 November @ 10:00 – 91 Income ETFs webcast Book: justonelap.com/events
• Friday 8 December – Final Power Hour: "Position Your Portfolio for 2026" Bookings open next week.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🌍 Worldwide Markets – Episode 655

Date: 5 November Host: Simon Brown Powered by: Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft – the global money app for travel, payments & investing.

🎙️ This Week's Big Questions

• When will markets crash? 🤯📉

• Will we finally get a sovereign ratings upgrade? 🇿🇦🔼

• Optasia* lists… but no IPO fireworks 💼🔔

• SA vehicle sales accelerate again 🚗📈

🚀 Shyft Migration Update

If you are an OST/Webtrader/ASI client — but have not yet been notified about migrating to Shyft — that simply means your group is scheduled for 2026, once remaining features roll out. 🔗 Watch the full Power Hour explainer:

🔔 Optasia* Listing – A Calm Debut

• IPO priced at R19

• Day 1: Opened R20.75 → Closed R19.38 (≈ +2% on a -2% market day)

• No big pop → but not a failure

• Existing shareholders + exec team locked in for 185–360 days

• Market consensus sees R25–R26 within 2–3 years if growth executes

Simon's stance: ✔️ Applied → got only 14% allocation ✔️ Holding ✔️ Looking to build the position over time

🚗 SA Vehicle Sales – Strong Again

October sales: 55,960 units ➡️ Best October since 2014 📈 Driven partly by car rental fleets restocking for the holiday season ✅ Still good news for motor retailers

🇿🇦 Potential Sovereign Ratings Upgrade?

• SA remains junk with Moody's, Fitch & S&P Global

• Outlooks have shifted flat → positive

• S&P may consider upgrade in November

• MTBPS next week: Expected to show higher-than-budgeted tax revenue → Thanks to booming gold & PGM prices ⚒️💰

But… 💬 Citadel's Maarten Ackerman: "Not so fast — upgrade may still take time."

Key stat: Foreigners purchased the most SA government bonds (Aug–Sep) since records began in 1994 — even while we remain junk.

🪙 Gold – Consolidating at $3,950–$4,050

• Price: $3,964 at recording

• Analyst view (Petri Redelinghuys from Herenya Capital Advisors): → Good entry zone for those who missed the earlier run

• Chart setup: Sideways consolidation, waiting for next leg

🌏 China–US Trade "Peace"?

• Trump offers tariff cuts on fentanyl ingredients

• China offers:

  • Soybean purchases 🌱 (they buy 50% of global supply)

  • Lifting rare earth export restrictions for 1 year 🧲

Reality: China still holds the real leverage here.

📉 Market Crash Fears – Let's Talk About It ✔️ Will markets crash?

Yes. Guaranteed. Always have. Always will.

❓ When?

Nobody knows. Not even the clever people.

🧱 Bull markets climb a wall of worry.

There are always scary headlines.

🎯 Key Takeaways

• Being in cash waiting for the crash is costly.

• Even when crashes happen, markets often do not fall back to where you sold.

• Timing the bottom is even harder.

• If you're worried → trim, rebalance, don't go 100% cash.

Stats (S&P 500 historical):

Market Type Average Length Average Move Bull Market 🟢 5.3 years +254% Bear Market 🔴 1 year -31%

Conclusion: Staying invested wins — unless you're already drawing retirement income.

🏁 Final Thoughts

• Markets will crash — we just don't know when

• Keep investing, keep rebalancing, don't try to be clever

• And remember: cash is a drag over the long term

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🌍 World Wide Markets Ep. 654 — 29 October 2025

🎙️ "Gold took us up … and gold will take us down."

🪙 Gold Takes the JSE for a Ride

• Gold led the JSE to record highs — and now it's leading it back down.
• Year-to-date returns:
  • Gold +49 %, Harmony +87 %, Pan African +126 %, DRD +150 %, Gold Fields +162 %, AngloGold Ashanti* +167 %!
  • Excluding dividends!
• Simon notes clear support around $3,600-3,800, with further downside likely.
• The Top 40 is up ~38 % YTD, but the Resources Index (Resi) is +93 % — remove that, and the market's ~20 %.
• Translation: half this year's gains came from gold ⛏️. When gold falls, the JSE will feel it.
• Simon spots a "kangaroo-tail" reversal candle — 10 straight green months is unprecedented 📉.
• Expect short-term weakness but the long-term gold story isn't over — deficits, inflation, and de-dollarization keep the bull case alive 💰.
• For those who "missed" gold, this pullback may be your chance — scale in slowly rather than catching the knife 🪙⚖️.

Top40 Monthly chart 2025

💡 Optasia IPO Extended

• Fintech AI & machine-learning listing — application deadline extended to Thursday 30 Oct (lunchtime).
• Simon applied after FirstRand took a 20.1 % stake at R 19, top of the range 💼.
• Despite muted enthusiasm from guests on Stock Watch, the institutional interest makes it intriguing 🤖📊.
• Allocation risk remains — expect to receive only a fraction 🎟️.

🚗 WeBuyCars: Market Hits the Brakes

• Trading update disappointed; share price −13.5 %.
• HEPS: 222 – 226 c vs ~240 c consensus ➡️ P/E ≈ 20 ("fair").
• Was pricey at ~30× earnings, now more realistic ⚖️.
• Chinese car imports may start competing at lower price points 🇨🇳 → potential pressure on used-car margins.
• Still, for those who missed the run, this could be a re-entry point 🚘.

🏠 Balwin Results

• Decent set of numbers — growth across Western Cape, KZN and Gauteng.
• No dividend 💧 → debt reduction focus.
• Sector tailwinds: lower rates + improving bond approvals (Uber = Ooba).
• Strong demand for mid-tier and affordable housing 🏗️.
• Simon holds Calgro M3* in the same space.

⛏️ Commodities & PGMs Holding Up

• Anglo American & Kumba raise guidance 👍 → stronger pricing and better rail flow.
• Valtera still recovering from floods, but higher PGM prices help.
• Platinum breakout ⚙️ $ 1 550 + after a decade range bound 850 – 1 100.
• Palladium rebounding too ( $ 1 700 resistance ).
• Trend: higher highs and higher lows 📈.

🏪 Pick n Pay: Slow Road to Recovery

• Still loss-making but loss shrinking 📉.
• Adjusting for Boxer, cash and tax deferrals → valuation ≈ –R 3 billion (cheap on paper).
• Sean Summers cautious: recovery will be slower than hoped.
• Needs to win market share from Shoprite* – a tough battle 🛒🆚.

🇨🇳🇺🇸 US-China Trade & Tariffs

• Possible trade deal emerging 🎯 — China may buy soybeans, ease rare-earth curbs.
• Perception = bullish for equities, bearish for gold (short term).
• US markets closing at record highs 📈 — a deal would supercharge them.
• Meanwhile, US Supreme Court to decide whether Trump can impose tariffs unilaterally.
  • Lower court said no → prediction markets expect he'll lose ⚖️.
  • Outcome could remove tariffs entirely – massive implications for trade and exporters.
  • Retroactive refunds possible? Unclear 💵❓

🏦 Shift Migration Update

• Standard Bank Online Share Trading, AutoShare Invest and WebTrader are migrating to the Shyft app 📲.
• Phase 2 migration this week → details at justonelap.com/powerhour.
• If you haven't been contacted, your turn comes in 2026 (probably after March).
• Shift offers cheapest Forex rates and multi-asset access globally 🌍💳.

💬 Final Thought

"Gold gave us the party — and now it's calling last rounds." Expect volatility, opportunities, and reversals — but don't lose the big picture.

Simon Brown 🎧 Worldwide Markets Ep. 654 | Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft 💙 Look after yourself — and someone else too.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🌍 Worldwide Markets Ep. 653 – Gold Crashes, Markets Burn, and Optasia's JSE Listing

🎙️ Hosted by Simon Brown 📅 Recorded: Tuesday, 21 October 2025 📈 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail & Shyft – The global money app that puts travel, shopping, payments and investments in the palm of your hand.

💥 Local Markets Crushed

A brutal day on the JSE as the market closed down 2.5%, with resources tumbling 7.8% despite a steady rand (R17.43).

• Gold miners collapsed: Implats & Sibanye -10%, Gold Fields & Harmony -9%, AngloGold* -8%.

• PGMs also fell hard: Northam & Impala down over 7%.

• Retail pain: TFG* dropped a shocking 16.6% after a poor trading update, dragging down Pepkor, Mr Price*, and even WeBuyCars.

• U.S. markets were red but only mildly so — calm compared to SA's bloodbath.

🪙 Gold: After 9 Green Weeks, the Pullback Arrives

Gold finally broke its 10-week winning streak, plunging from $4,378 to $4,122 — a $250 drop in two days 😬

• Simon notes this was inevitable after nine straight weeks of gains.

• Likely short-term support around $3,950–$4,000, with potential consolidation below $4,000.

• Despite the scare, the Satrix Resi is still up over 100% for 2025. 💡 Lesson: even in a bull run, sharp corrections are part of the journey.

🧠 Optasia: AI Fintech Listing on the JSE

A major new listing — Optasia (code: OPA) — is set to debut 3 November. Valued at around R20–25 billion, it's one of the largest fintech listings in years.

Key Facts:

• Business: Micro-loans & airtime credit to the unbanked and underbanked.

• Reach: 38 markets (Africa, Asia, Middle East, Europe).

• Scale:

  • 120 million customers/month

  • 32 million loans/day

  • $13m total daily loan value

• Average loan: $5 (microfinance) and $0.25 (airtime credit)

• Defaults: impressively low at 1.14% 💪

• Backers: Standard Bank, RMB, EcoBank, MTN, Vodacom, Airtel, Zain, and more.

• Listing price range: R15.50–R19.00 per share.

• Lockup: 180 days for sellers, 365 for directors.

• Existing shareholder exit: Ethos Capital (EPE) partially selling down.

Simon's Take 🎯

• Solid business with real revenue and strong growth (≈90% YoY in 2025H1).

• But… valuation not cheap (PE ≈ mid-20s).

• Concerns over allocation uncertainty and currency/regulatory risks in frontier markets.

• 💬 Verdict: "I'm not applying — great business, fair valuation, but not compelling enough."

🚗 CMH* (Combined Motor Holdings): Excellent Results & Share Buyback

Vehicle sales hit their highest levels since 2015, and CMH delivered stellar numbers 🚙💨

• Headline earnings: +25%

• No dividend this time, but a 15% share buyback instead.

• Strong exposure to Indian & Chinese brands (nearly 50% of sales) plus Suzuki, now SA's #2 brand.

• Legacy luxury brands are struggling.

• Historic returns:

  • Share price last decade: 12%

  • Dividend yield last decade: ~10%

  • Combined ≈ 22% annual shareholder return over the past decade! 📊

The Twist

Founder Jeb McIntosh (79) may be looking to gradually exit — Simon suspects the buyback could facilitate this. Still, Simon's holding: "I'm not selling — unless they offer me a crazy price."

🏦 Upcoming Event: Standard Bank Client Migration

📢 Important for OST, WebTrader, and AutoShare Invest clients: Standard Bank is migrating investment clients to Shift. Join Simon Brown and Adish from Standard Bank on Tuesday, 28 October, 5:30 PM (Rosebank or Webcast). 🔗 Register at justonelap.com/events

💬 Final Thoughts

Markets can be messy, but knowledge is power. Simon wraps up with his usual reminder:

"Look after yourself — and if you can, look after somebody else too." ❤️

🔑 Episode Summary

• 🪙 Gold's epic run ends with a sharp pullback.

• 📉 JSE hammered by resources & retailers.

• 🤖 Optasia brings fintech AI excitement to the JSE.

• 🚗 CMH delivers strong results and a massive buyback.

• 🏦 Big changes coming for Standard Bank investing clients.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🎙️ Worldwide Markets Ep. 652 — "Dividends, Gold, and Gearing Gone Wild" 📅 15 October 2025 | Hosted by Simon Brown | Powered by Standard Bank SHYFT

🪙 Gold Rush Continues

Gold is unstoppable! 🚀 Now trading above R4,100/oz, the yellow metal has clocked eight consecutive green weeks — the longest winning streak since early 2024.

Simon digs into:

• 📈 Historical patterns since the pandemic: jump → consolidate → jump again
• 🏦 Central banks as persistent buyers — but what happens if they ever stop?
• 🤔 With gold having doubled in three years, central banks' reserves are now worth far more — will they slow purchases?

Gold weekly chart

🧬 ASP Isotopes & the Renegen* Deal

🔥 The small-cap buzz continues!

ASP Isotopes (📊 JSE-listed) soared 34% after being added to a Morgan Stanley National Security Index, thanks to its defense-related tech.

• 🧪 ASP will acquire Renegen at a ratio of 0.09i ASP shares per Renegen share.
• 📈 The stock was badly mispriced at listing, now settling into realistic levels.
• 🧠 Simon's take: it's partly a meme stock, but still delivering products and momentum.

🌍 Tariff Turmoil & Trump Tactics

🗞️ Trump shocked markets promising 100% tariffs on China, triggering a:

• 📉 2% drop on the S&P 500
• 📉 3% drop on the Nasdaq …before walking it all back two days later. Classic "art of the deal." 🎭 💬 China's latest export data (+8.4% YoY) shows resilience, finding new global buyers despite tensions.

💥 Crypto Carnage: Over-Geared Traders Wiped Out

📉 Bitcoin slid 10%, altcoins dropped 20–50% — and many over leveraged traders got liquidated. Simon's tough love 💬:

"If a 10% move wipes you out, you're not trading — you're gambling." 🎲

He explains gearing simply:

• 💰 10× gearing = a 10% drop → total wipe out.
• 💰 50× gearing = just a 2% drop → goodbye capital.
• Crypto's already volatile — no need for extra leverage.

💸 JSE Large Caps: Great Dividend Yields

Following last week's small-cap value picks, Simon scans big JSE names offering strong income 📊:

🏦 Banks

• Nedbank (9%) – solid and cheap.
• ABSA (8%) – attractive and trading below NAV.
• Standard Bank (7%) – quality but pricier.
• FirstRand (5.2%) – premium quality, lower yield.
• Investec (6.5%) – decent, but less excitement.

🏭 Industrials & Commodities

• Tungela (50%) – monster yield, but coal outlook uncertain.
• Omnia (special dividend) – mixed on chemicals.
• AVI (9%) – steady margins, strong chart 📊.
• Tiger Brands (7%) – turnaround story under new management.
• Reunert – defense & cabling play; value emerging.

🏠 Property

• Equites, Growthpoint, Fairvest, Hyprop, Resilient – 6–8% yields, but NAV discounts vary.

🎰 Leisure & Retail

• Sun International (10%) – betting becoming core growth area 🎲
• Mr Price* (4%) – comeback potential.
• Woolies (2.5%) – still struggling with fashion 👗
• Shoprite* (2.7%) – premium, low yield.

💼 Asset Managers

• Old Mutual (9%), Coronation (8%), Sygnia – benefit from rising markets.
• Alexander Forbes – solid income play.

📡 Telcos & Others

• Telkom – undervalued, post-Swiftnet debt cut, potential MTN suitor 📶
• Grindrod – ports booming, Africa trade tailwinds 🌍
• Bitvest (4%) – cash generative, debt manageable, chart support at R200.

🧾 Key Takeaways

✅ Gold's bull market still strong — no legs down yet. ✅ ASP Isotopes & Renegen merger heating up. ✅ Beware leverage — crypto is wild enough. ✅ Dividend stocks offering serious income on the JSE. ✅ Buffett Power Hour this Thursday — don't miss it! 💼✨

🎧 Worldwide Markets is powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail & SHYFT — 💳 The global money app for travel, shopping, payments, and investments, with the lowest Forex rates.

👉 Subscribe to Worldwide Markets wherever you get your podcasts. 💬 Follow Simon on Twitter/X: @SimonPB

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🎙️ Worldwide Markets Ep. 651 — "Value on the JSE? We Find the Cheapest Shares" (8 October 2025)

📅 Recorded Tuesday afternoon | Powered by Standard Bank & SHYFT

💡 Episode Overview

This week Simon Brown digs into value on the JSE — where the cheapest shares might be hiding 👀. He also unpacks:

• The Purple Group* pullback 🟣
• ETF returns so far in 2025 📈 (spoiler: it's been a wild year!)
• Upcoming Standard Bank Power Hour: Investing Like Warren Buffett 🧠

🟣 Purple Group: Pullback or Panic?

• After a huge rally to R2.74, Purple Group has pulled back — but no need to panic.
• Likely to find support around R2.10, with upside targets around R3.50 💪.
• Expecting strong trading updates by late October or early November.
• With markets, gold, crypto, and offshore assets all flying, Purple should benefit as trading volumes rise.

📊 2025 ETF Returns — A Booming Year

Simon's recent ETF analysis shows a banner year for SA ETFs (excluding dividends): 🏆 Top Performers:

• Satrix RESI* +118% 🪨
• Satrix Shariah +69% 🌙 (thanks to heavy gold exposure)
• 10X Top 20, Rafi 40*, Gold ETFs, SWIX, and EasyETFs Global Equity (Active) all strong 📈

📉 Laggards:

• Signia Health Innovation −9.2% 🧬
• India ETF −8.7% 🇮🇳
• Global Bonds & Healthcare ETFs slightly negative

🪙 Overall takeaway: 2025 is a golden year — literally and figuratively.

💸 Value Hunt: The Cheapest Shares on the JSE

Simon's criteria for spotting value gems 💎:

• PE ratio: 0–10 (profitable companies only)
• Dividend yield: >0.01% (sign of free cash flow)
• Price-to-book:

🔍 Highlights from the Screen

Property & Small Caps: 🏢 Ascension, Safari, Emira, Octodec — deep discounts to NAV, juicy yields (~8%). 🚍 Putprop — Western Cape bus operator, tiny but intriguing (PE 5.7, yield 3.5%). 🏠 Calgro M3* — low-cost housing builder, due for results soon; Baldwin also looking attractive.

Media & Industrials: 📺 E-Media — PE 4.8, dividend ~12%, cheap but illiquid. 🪵 Sappi & Mondi — paper industry under pressure. ⚙️ Invicta — PE 🪓 Master Drilling — exposure to gold & copper, global operations, decent IP. 📦 Mpact — tied up in Caxton's bid & Competition Commission delays.

Consumer & Financials: 🛋️ Lewis Group — "a bank disguised as a furniture store," 10%+ yield, strong results. 🏦 Investec, ABSA, Nedbank — cheap banks with high yields and solid balance sheets. 🧓 Old Mutual — ~9% yield, launching a bank soon; well positioned in bull markets. 🚗 Motus & CMH* — benefiting from decade-high vehicle sales. 📦 Stor-age*, Spear, Growthpoint — steady property plays; prefer those with discounts to NAV.

Other Notables: 🐟 Sea Harvest & Oceana — solid businesses, but "fish stocks make for tough investments." 🪙 Sabvest — style value play, small discount to NAV. 💼 HCI — resolved union cash flow issues, trades below asset value. 🎙️ African Media Entertainment — great yield (10%), but beware of liquidity traps.

⚠️ Simon's Key Takeaways

✅ There is value on the JSE, but many bargains are illiquid — trade carefully. ✅ Liquidity traps can hurt even when valuations look great. ✅ Dividend yields + solid cash flow are strong signals of resilience. ✅ Always DYOR — "Not financial advice."

🧭 Final Thoughts

2025 continues to be a strong year for gold, ETFs, and SA banks, with pockets of deep value emerging across small caps and property.

💬 "Markets that are going higher make us feel richer — but if we're positioned right, they actually make us richer." — Simon Brown

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👋 Closing Note: Nine more episodes to go this year! Simon signs off: "Look after yourself — and if you can, look after somebody else as well." ❤️

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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🌍 Worldwide Markets Episode 650 – 1 October 2025

Hosted by Simon Brown Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & the Shyft Global Money App 💳🌐

🔑 Key Topics This Week

📈 Purple Group* & EasyEquities

• Purple Group share price up ~150% this year 🚀

• Results driven by non-revenue income (inactivity fees & loyalty program)

• Strong client acquisition via Capitec & Discovery Bank partnerships 🏦

• Trading volumes soaring in a bullish market 💹

Purple Group | YTD to close 29 Sep 25

💰 Top 40 hits 100,000

• Thanks to gold miners & PGMs ⛏️

• AngloGold Ashanti* up nearly 200% in 2025 ✨

• Bitcoin also at record highs: $110k – $115k ₿

🇿🇦 Bull case for SA Inc.

• Eskom turns profit ⚡, load shedding largely behind us

• FAFTA gray list exit expected late October ✅

• Stronger rand & softer oil price supporting consumers ⛽

• Lower inflation, potential rate cuts in the US vs. SA rates hold 💵

• Bond yields easing = cheaper government borrowing 💸

🛒 Boxer trading update

• Like-for-like sales up 5.3%, turnover +13.9% 📊

• EPS guidance strong but valuation looks pricey vs. Shoprite* 🍏

🤖 Nvidia's* self-dealing investments

• Billions poured into OpenAI, CoreWeave & Mistral 🧠

• Risks of dot-com style "self-dealing" re-emerging ⚠️

• Simon remains a cautious Nvidia shareholder

📉 Global delistings trend

• JSE listings halved over 20 years 📉

• US market also down from 8,000+ to ~4,000 listings

• Private equity & venture capital keep firms private longer ⏳

📅 Upcoming Event

Standard Bank Power Hour – Warren Buffett: Blueprint for a Lifetime of Investing 🦫💡 🗓️ 16 October, 17:30 SAST 📍 Rosebank, Johannesburg (in-person & webcast)

📝 Simon's Notes

• Obsidian vs Evernote: experimenting with second-brain systems 📚🧠

• Thanks for all listener feedback 🙏

🎙️ Closing

10 more episodes left before Simon's year-end break ✈️ "Look after yourself, and if you can, look after somebody else too." ❤️

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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🌍 Worldwide Markets Ep. 649 – Building a Second Brain 🧠✨

Recorded on 24 September 2025 (from the beach!) – Hosted by Simon Brown

This week, Simon takes a break from market talk 📉📈 to explore something equally powerful: how to manage the flood of data and information we face every day. Instead of focusing on stocks, currencies, or central banks, he dives into the idea of creating a "second brain" — a system to capture, organize, and use knowledge effectively.

🔑 Episode Highlights

• 🧠 Brains are great at decisions – quick choices like what to eat or which route to take. But storing and retrieving data? Not so much.

• ✍️ Handwritten notes win – research shows writing helps memory more than typing. Simon shares how digital handwritten notes improve recall.

• 📅 Calendars as to-do lists – forget endless apps. Simon's hack: putting everything (from work deadlines to buying milk 🥛 & whiskey 🥃) in his calendar for one central source of truth.

• 📚 Building a Second Brain (by Tiago Forte) – the PARA + CODE framework that inspired Simon's system.

🗂️ PARA Framework

• P – Projects 🎯: Active tasks (e.g. upcoming presentations, podcast prep).

• A – Areas 🌐: Broader ongoing themes (like camping 🏕️ or tech gadgets 📸).

• R – Resources 📖: Interesting but general material worth saving.

• A – Archive 📦: Where used or finished items end up.

🔄 CODE Method

• C – Capture 📸: Snap photos, clip articles, jot notes into Evernote.

• O – Organize 🗃️: Sort into PARA a few times a week.

• D – Distill 💡: Pull out the key ideas & insights.

• E – Express 🗣️: Use the information for podcasts, presentations, articles, or even shopping lists 🛒.

🛠️ Tools Simon Uses

• Evernote 📱💻: Clunky but everywhere (phone, laptop, e-reader, iPad). Paid version makes it work seamlessly.

• Tried but moved on: Obsidian (too complex), Notion (powerful but not his fit), Raindrop.io (good for bookmarking but limited).

🎯 Why it Works

✔️ Frees up mental space – no more stressing about remembering. ✔️ Keeps data accessible & actionable. ✔️ Turns chaos (screenshots, random notes, cluttered camera rolls) into a system. ✔️ Supports Simon's creative and teaching work.

🙌 Your Turn

Simon invites listeners to share their hacks: 👉 How do you manage the constant stream of info? 👉 Do you have your own "second brain" system?

Send us your thoughts, tools, and strategies 💬.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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💡 Worldwide Markets is powered by Standard Bank Global Markets and Shyft – the global money app for travel, shopping, payments, and investments with the best forex rates anytime, anywhere. 🌍💳

🌍 World Wide Markets Ep. 648 – Cash-Rich Companies, Fed Cuts & China's Housing Woes

Host: Simon Brown Date: 17 September 2025

📉 China's Housing Market

• New house prices fell 2.5% YoY – still negative since May 2022.
• Bottomed in October 2023 (-5.9%) and now trending upward.
• Reflects weak Chinese consumer confidence, similar to South Africa 🇨🇳🇿🇦.
• Evergrande's collapse still casts a shadow.

Chinese New Home index YonY

🏦 Central Banks in Focus

FOMC (US): Decision due Wednesday evening.

• Market expects 25bps cut, with more cuts likely in Oct & Dec.
• US unemployment says "cut", inflation says "don't cut" – a real policy squeeze.
• Trump pushing for FOMC shake-up & questioning quarterly reporting 📊.

MPC (SA): Decision Thursday.

• Inflation at 3.5%, close to target.
• Mixed economist views: some say no cuts until 2027, others see cuts sooner.
• Fed cuts could influence SARB moves via rand 💵➡️🇿🇦.

📊 Trump vs. Quarterly Results

• Trump suggests companies report every six months instead of quarterly.
• Argument: reduces costs and red tape.
• Counterpoint: US market's strength lies in transparency & discipline from frequent reporting.
• Unlikely to change, but sparks debate on market "exceptionalism" 🇺🇸.

🏢 Three Stocks With More Cash & Investments Than Market Cap

1. 📰 Caxton (JSE:CAT)

• 💰 Cash: R3bn + R1.3bn stake in Mpact.
• Market cap: R4.4bn → stock "almost free" if stripped for parts.
• Dividend payer, PE \~7, yield \~5%.
• Not flashy, but offers Buffett-style margin of safety.

2. 🚚 Supergroup (JSE:SPG)

• 💰 Cash: R5.2bn, but liabilities of R9.5bn linked to assets held for sale.
• Supply chain, dealerships, fleet solutions.
• Debt-heavy, UK exposure risky 🇬🇧.
• Verdict: less attractive vs. Caxton.

3. 🛒 Pick n Pay (JSE:PIK)

• Owns 65.6% of Boxer → worth \~R20bn.
• Plus R5bn cash, R1bn debt, R2.8bn deferred tax asset.
• Market cap \~R20bn → potential undervaluation.
• PE ugly now, but 2027/28 earnings growth could re-rate it.
• Selling down Boxer stake could unlock value.

⚒️ Mining & M&A

Anglo American buying Teck Resources (Canada, copper focus).

• * Increases copper weighting to \~⅔ of revenue.
• Head office shifting to Toronto 🇨🇦.
• Deal raises takeover questions – could BHP* come back for Anglo?

🇨🇳 Nvidia vs. China

• China says Nvidia violated anti-monopoly laws (linked to 2020 acquisition).
• Also probing Texas Instruments for "dumping".
• Comes as US-China trade talks continue, TikTok deadline looms ⏳.
• Possible bargaining chip in ongoing negotiations.
• Simon still holds Nvidia.

🧠 Next Week: Second Brain Special

Simon explains how to build & use a "second brain" for decision-making & information management. Because our brains are great at decisions 🧠✔️ … but terrible at remembering ❌.

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Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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