WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown

We can all be Buffett, Kinda | Sell in May & Go Away?


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đź§“ Warren Buffett Steps Down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway

  • Buffett officially steps aside as CEO at age 94, replaced by Greg Abel.
  • Still remains Chairman
  • Berkshire A shares up ~44,000% since the 80s
  • No dividends ever paid, only share buybacks
  • His legacy: simplicity, repeatable process, and long-term vision
  • Emphasis on reading years of balance sheets and loving cash flow
  • Fun fact: 96% of his net worth came after age 65
🏦 Investing Lessons from Buffett
  • Stick to quality companies at reasonable prices
  • Focus on permanent capital and compounding
  • Keep your process simple and repeatable
  • Don’t chase hype — focus on fundamentals
  • South Africa's Chris Seabrooke noted as a local Buffett-like investor
🌸 "Sell in May and Go Away" – Myth Busted
  • Simon critiques the old market adage.
  • S&P returns from May–October average 0.49%, Nov–Apr average 1.02%
  • Transaction costs, taxes, and missed rallies make timing unreliable
  • Verdict: It's a nursery rhyme, not an investment strategy
🛢️ Oil Falling as OPEC Hikes Production
  • OPEC+ accelerating production increases
  • Brent now ~$60/barrel
Impacts:
  • âś… Good for fuel prices & oil consumers
  • ❌ Bad for Sasol (though price hasn’t reacted much)
  • 🏚️ Fracking rigs in US may shut down if prices fall further
  • Possible geopolitical angle: helping Trump by lowering gas prices
đź’µ Rand Strengthens
  • ZAR at R18.24/USD, nearing a key R18.30 technical level
  • Boosted by stronger exports, higher gold prices
  • Could trend toward R17 if momentum continues
🪙 Gold Surging Again
  • Gold bouncing back above $3,000 after recent dip
  • Driven by:
    • Central bank buying
    • Rebound in ETF inflows (especially in Europe, Asia, and US)
    • General inflation and recession fears
    • Upcoming FOMC decision adding fuel to the rally
🏛️ FOMC Decision This Week
  • Fed expected to hold rates
  • US inflation stickiness, strong jobs data, and political independence from Trump all in play
  • Simon expects no change but criticizes SARB for being too hawkish despite low SA inflation (2.7%)
🧠 Palantir Results – Big Numbers, Big Risks
  • Q1 Revenue up 39% YoY to $884M
  • Customers up 39%, EPS (non-GAAP) at $0.13
  • Price-to-book: 58x ⚠️
  • EV-to-sales: 100x ⚠️
  • Heavy stock-based comp = shareholder dilution
  • Analysts split: mostly neutral or bearish
  • You’re investing in Peter Thiel’s vision, not value metrics

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

 

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